Let Them Play CA

Desert Hound said:
Actually not 8 months behind per say. Keep up ;)

I was responding to someone who thought we could have done it better. I pointed out Europe as what was pointed out before as doing it right, and basically our near peers so to speak today.

As a nation be it T or a D in charge when this happened, I am pretty sure we would have about as many deaths as we do today either way.

By the way I keep asking you for your response regarding CA vs TX/FL. You keep ignoring that for some reason. You know the states that have kids in school and playing sports vs the state that doesn't? And yet all 3 are infection wise and deaths wise very similar.
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I gave my response to TX/CA/FL. My response is that the deaths rates were similar for those three, but AZ really screwed up royally.

If you want to understand it, you have to look beyond those three states. Start asking why Washington, Oregon, and Jefferson look great, NorCal looks mediocre, and SoCal was a mess. Even though Jefferson, NorCal, and SoCal all have exactly the same state policies.

It really looks like WA, OR, and Jefferson each have a working system. SoCal, TX, Norcal, and FL all made some major mistakes. But the TX/FL mistakes are quite different from the SoCal/Norcal mistakes.

And, as before, the AZ response was horrible. No masks and open restaurants? No wonder they have had so many deaths.
 
dad4 said:
I gave my response to TX/CA/FL. My response is that the deaths rates were similar for those three, but AZ really screwed up royally.

If you want to understand it, you have to look beyond those three states. Start asking why Washington, Oregon, and Jefferson look great, NorCal looks mediocre, and SoCal was a mess. Even though Jefferson, NorCal, and SoCal all have exactly the same state policies.

It really looks like WA, OR, and Jefferson each have a working system. SoCal, TX, Norcal, and FL all made some major mistakes. But the TX/FL mistakes are quite different from the SoCal/Norcal mistakes.

And, as before, the AZ response was horrible. No masks and open restaurants? No wonder they have had so many deaths.
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Would you agree that CA might as well have done what TX/FL did? Your kid(s) would be in school full time. They would be playing ball. Businesses and individuals would financially be in much better shape, etc.

All 3 arrived at the same outcome, yet are doing very different things.
 
Desert Hound said:
My teens have been back at HS full time since late aug/beginning of September. They run classes like they did last year. So lots of different contacts. There hasn't been any issues.

The same has been seen in other places around the US and the world where they are back in school. It isn't an issue.
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Same here.
 
Desert Hound said:
Would you agree that CA might as well have done what TX/FL did? Your kid(s) would be in school full time. They would be playing ball. Businesses and individuals would financially be in much better shape, etc.

All 3 arrived at the same outcome, yet are doing very different things.
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No, I would not agree.

Part of CA’s mistake is 40 years of overly restrictive housing policy. We created these ghettos with 3 families per apartment, and then are surprised when those areas prove vulnerable to disease.

Now, could we have prevented it by copying TX or FL policies towards residential construction? Absolutely.

That doesn’t mean I think it would be smart to live in our ghettos, ditch the masks, and open up restaurants. That would make it even worse. We’d just copy the TX/FL mistake, without ever fixing the CA mistake.
 
dad4 said:
No, I would not agree.

Part of CA’s mistake is 40 years of overly restrictive housing policy. We created these ghettos with 3 families per apartment, and then are surprised when those areas prove vulnerable to disease.

Now, could we have prevented it by copying TX or FL policies towards residential construction? Absolutely.

That doesn’t mean I think it would be smart to live in our ghettos, ditch the masks, and open up restaurants. That would make it even worse. We’d just copy the TX/FL mistake, without ever fixing the CA mistake.
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the virus wouldn't be getting into the ghettos if someone wasn't bringing it home with them (usually from work). The problem in California is we neither locked down fully (which wasn't sustainable for a year) nor opened up near fully, with a result of little impact on cases and a whole lot of economic and secondary damage.
 
dad4 said:
Now, could we have prevented it by copying TX or FL policies towards residential construction? Absolutely.
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We have in places like Modesto, Tracy, Stockton, Manteca, Rancho Cucomonga, Corona etc. The valley is the new ghetto and there’s more than enough urban sprawl there.
 
MacDre said:
We have in places like Modesto, Tracy, Stockton, Manteca, Rancho Cucomonga, Corona etc. The valley is the new ghetto and there’s more than enough urban sprawl there.
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Works great for people like you and me.

How well does it work for a 23 year old couple trying to find a place to live? Or should they just cease to exist because rich people on the coast find them inconvenient?

You’re better than that, Dre. People need homes. Real homes. If you effectively ban construction because it is sprawl, what happens to the people who were going to live there?

And don’t tell me we are going to build taller, unless you have a state law to force it to happen. We both know it won’t happen otherwise.
 
N00B said:
Or it’s something other than policy that differentiates death rates...

CA vs. AZ % of population over 65

Persons 65 years and over, percent CA 14.3% AZ 17.5%
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And you are only counting full time residents. AZ has tons and tons of snowbirds in the winter that are technically residents of other states but come here for the winter every year.
 
N00B said:
Or it’s something other than policy that differentiates death rates...

CA vs. AZ % of population over 65

Persons 65 years and over, percent CA 14.3% AZ 17.5%
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Fair. It would be best to look at per capita death rates within age bands. I don’t have that, but we can look at deaths per million residents over 65.

CA: 1051/0.143 = 7350 deaths per mil elderly.
AZ: 1836/0.175 = 10474 deaths per mil elderly.

Closer, but AZ is still not looking so great. Still 42% above CA.
 
EOTL said:
Private and charter school teachers don’t have a union to protect them. It’s unfortunate that those teachers must subject themselves to such risk. They’ll learn soon enough why the teacher turnover at these schools is so high.
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My kids have had in person learning with teachers on site since Sept. 1st. Not one teacher has had Covid and there has been no Covid spread among the students as a result of being at school. ZERO! I have spent A LOT of money for private school over the years but I can tell you, it was money well spent especially this year.
 
dad4 said:
Fair. It would be best to look at per capita death rates within age bands. I don’t have that, but we can look at deaths per million residents over 65.

CA: 1051/0.143 = 7350 deaths per mil elderly.
AZ: 1836/0.175 = 10474 deaths per mil elderly.

Closer, but AZ is still not looking so great. Still 42% above CA.
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As someone mentioned previously, I think you'd also need to do a deep dive into the Latino and Native American communities.
 
TheVirginian said:
Schools just have not been a factor in transmission. But, to be fair, its something like 50% of the parents that don't want to send kids to schools. I think the schools are just responding to parent fears. If parents were 90% in favor of school opening, the schools would open. I do not like teachers' unions, but this one isn't their fault.
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Why would they want to send their kids to school when public school's solution is to send kids back to a classroom with a proctor in the room and the teacher on Zoom from home? That is not the definition of in person learning. You might as well stay home if your still learning via a Zoom meeting.
 
Grace T. said:
the virus wouldn't be getting into the ghettos if someone wasn't bringing it home with them (usually from work). The problem in California is we neither locked down fully (which wasn't sustainable for a year) nor opened up near fully, with a result of little impact on cases and a whole lot of economic and secondary damage.
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True, but how do you avoid it?

Pay them all to stay home? Sounds great, until you try to buy some hamburger and there isn’t any.
 
TOSDCI said:
My kids have had in person learning with teachers on site since Sept. 1st. Not one teacher has had Covid and there has been no Covid spread among the students as a result of being at school. ZERO! I have spent A LOT of money for private school over the years but I can tell you, it was money well spent especially this year.
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Well aren't you special ;) . Bragging about how your kids are in school! Just kidding, I'm just jealous. Can't even get my kids into a private school if we wanted to at this point. The waiting lists are huge.
 
dad4 said:
Works great for people like you and me.

How well does it work for a 23 year old couple trying to find a place to live? Or should they just cease to exist because rich people on the coast find them inconvenient?

You’re better than that, Dre. People need homes. Real homes. If you effectively ban construction because it is sprawl, what happens to the people who were going to live there?

And don’t tell me we are going to build taller, unless you have a state law to force it to happen. We both know it won’t happen otherwise.
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All valid points. But, I don’t think more development is the solution. Over the past 20-30 years I have seen lots of development in cities like Fremont, Newark, San Ramon, Pleasanton, Danville, Hercules, and the Peninsula but those areas are still unaffordable to the 23 y/o couple you referenced. I also participated in meetings with developers wanting to shut down the Ashby flea market and develop high rises in the parking lot of the Ashby Bart of which none would be affordable for that 23 y/o couple.

I don’t know what the solution is, but it’s not development in the Bay Area.
 
watfly said:
Well aren't you special ;) . Bragging about how your kids are in school! Just kidding, I'm just jealous. Can't even get my kids into a private school if we wanted to at this point. The waiting lists are huge.
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Yes, we are definitely grateful for the ability to put them in private school. It's not easy but it's been worth the sacrifice. Private school does not help us when it comes to going back to playing sports though.
 
dad4 said:
True, but how do you avoid it?

Pay them all to stay home? Sounds great, until you try to buy some hamburger and there isn’t any.
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You know my preferred solution is Florida. But if you are going to go the lockdown route, short targeted regional lockdowns to control outbreaks in the areas which are being affected (we might not be able to go as far as Australia given constitutional limitations, but even they don't have their country in permanent high level lockdown), with only groceries, pharmacies and essential medical services operating. Partial lockdowns forever including over summer months, with stupid things like outdoor dining schools and sports shut down, did very little to control the virus and very much to destroy the economy.
 
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