Tophat is 4th in the Nation again. For doing what? The best team they played was 148. Playing teams ranked 300, 400. Come on with that rankings app.
People don't understand statistics - and believe that if they see an example they don't like, all of the rest must also be wrong. Come on with the adult population believing they understand math and probabilities better than they actually do.
I like the rankings app too and its normally pretty close but when it does things like this your like ummm ok. For all the socal teams the predictor is pretty well on each game.
Here's another one. Galaxy GA. #17 in the nation. Played West Coast GA and lost. Played FRAM GA and tied 1-1. Lost to Kansas GA ranked 347 in the nation but they are #17. Makes zero sense. Sorry but any GA team in the top 30 in the nation right now is nonsense. Yeah its a bummer these teams never come out here to play in tournaments. Seeing what happens to teams like Charlotte ECNL in ECNL playoffs every year I don't blame them.
All of the ratings are continuously optimized to make it most likely that it will successfully predict the outcome of the next game. This measure (predictivity), is exactly what is tracked over time, with any of the parameters for game history timing, affect of scoring deltas, being tweaked to keep that number as high as possible. This is done over thousands and thousands of games. 1 or 2 (or 100) examples we can point to where something unexpected happened isn't "proof" that it isn't working, it's basically doing exactly what it's being asked. For that Galaxy GA vs Kansas GA game, SR predicted that Galaxy would win 82% of the time, only lose 12% of the time, and should win 5-0. Yet when the game was played, it showed a massive difference from the prediction - and Kansas did end up winning. This doesn't make it a "shake my head, SR is full of crap" moment, it makes it a moment where sports isn't entirely predictable, and strange things are expected to happen from time to time.
TopHat 2010 is a common punching bag on this site, as they are very highly rated, and are in a bracket where they completely and utterly dominate their competition. Remember, ultimately these ratings are intended to predict whether this team will beat that team when they face eachother. And for TopHat, like all teams, they are predicting their game outcomes exactly as expected.
Here's the overview:
Currently 7th highest rating in the country, playing a schedule where the average team they face is #102 in the country. Here's their recent game history:
And here's what their bracket looks like. They are utterly dominant, at 11-0, while the 2nd place team is showing 5-1 and over 2.5 goals weaker according to SR.
Add me to the long list of people who think it would be great if all of the teams saying (or at least believing), they are highly competitive at the national level, would actually get to face each other at the national level. Put me also on the other list of people who seem to understand all of the competing reasons why this doesn't happen.
Didn’t mean to pop your magical bubble! I get it...it’s a delicate matter for you, prancing around on your cloud of glitter and good vibes… But hey, not everything’s sunshine and sprinkles. Sometimes you’ve got to step off that rainbow and see things as they really are, sparkles or not! Don’t worry, though, no one’s trying to steal your glitter wand, my friend! 
