How’s the 2024-2025 season going?

RandomSoccerFan said:
People don't understand statistics - and believe that if they see an example they don't like, all of the rest must also be wrong. Come on with the adult population believing they understand math and probabilities better than they actually do.



All of the ratings are continuously optimized to make it most likely that it will successfully predict the outcome of the next game. This measure (predictivity), is exactly what is tracked over time, with any of the parameters for game history timing, affect of scoring deltas, being tweaked to keep that number as high as possible. This is done over thousands and thousands of games. 1 or 2 (or 100) examples we can point to where something unexpected happened isn't "proof" that it isn't working, it's basically doing exactly what it's being asked. For that Galaxy GA vs Kansas GA game, SR predicted that Galaxy would win 82% of the time, only lose 12% of the time, and should win 5-0. Yet when the game was played, it showed a massive difference from the prediction - and Kansas did end up winning. This doesn't make it a "shake my head, SR is full of crap" moment, it makes it a moment where sports isn't entirely predictable, and strange things are expected to happen from time to time.

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TopHat 2010 is a common punching bag on this site, as they are very highly rated, and are in a bracket where they completely and utterly dominate their competition. Remember, ultimately these ratings are intended to predict whether this team will beat that team when they face eachother. And for TopHat, like all teams, they are predicting their game outcomes exactly as expected.

Here's the overview:

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Currently 7th highest rating in the country, playing a schedule where the average team they face is #102 in the country. Here's their recent game history:

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And here's what their bracket looks like. They are utterly dominant, at 11-0, while the 2nd place team is showing 5-1 and over 2.5 goals weaker according to SR.

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Add me to the long list of people who think it would be great if all of the teams saying (or at least believing), they are highly competitive at the national level, would actually get to face each other at the national level. Put me also on the other list of people who seem to understand all of the competing reasons why this doesn't happen.
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Having actually played against TH I can tell you why they're so good. First, GA Southeast is a lot like GA Southwest. There's a couple of really good teams and a lot of not as good teams. But I think a lot of leagues are like that. This allows TH to run up the score on not as good teams. Second, Atlanta has A LOT of highly talented players I'm talking Size, Speed, and Ability. TH as a club is a lot like Surf in that they have very good coaches and facilities and are a destination club for top youth players in the South. Put it all together and THs ranking makes more sense.

I think they'd surprise many of the top Socal clubs because they have speed size and power to play direct. But they also have very good coaching which allows them to switch to possession if nessasary. Which is basically what teams like Surf do to opponents. The difference with TH is the players are bigger and faster.
 
Surfer_dad said:
It might have to do with the fact from 2010 and older, the girls have high school soccer, and this was something to fill in those months? That would make sense for the 11’s and 12’s.
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I don't think high school soccer has anything to do with this though. They are still in league play.
Maybe they opted to do other showcases or have their 2010s playing up with the older girls not leaving enough for the 2010 team, although this is closer and would make sense. I really don't know but just a few of my guesses.
 
JustaSpectator said:
I don't think high school soccer has anything to do with this though. They are still in league play.
Maybe they opted to do other showcases or have their 2010s playing up with the older girls not leaving enough for the 2010 team, although this is closer and would make sense. I really don't know but just a few of my guesses.
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The “only some conferences” part makes sense. Norcal and Northwest already play a double round robin. Adding a third game against the same opponent would be excessive.
 
SuperSoccerStar said:
Smart move. Go over to the east coast so the scouts can see what's going on over here on the west coast that they normally might not see.
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For me it still seems obvious to also do the SD showcase. It's local, low out of pocket cost and plenty of scouts should be there. It's a no brainer... so while going to NC may be a smart move, not going to SD is a dumb move.
 
Veritas said:
For me it still seems obvious to also do the SD showcase. It's local, low out of pocket cost and plenty of scouts should be there. It's a no brainer... so while going to NC may be a smart move, not going to SD is a dumb move.
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I’m curious how many scouts will actually be there for this event. The 2010s are grouped with 11’s, 12’s and 13’s for SD and there are no 09’s, 08’s, or 07/06’s.

Starting to feel like this group keeps getting passed over.

The NC event will be grouped with the olders (08’s and 09’s).
 
TeamDadJokes said:
I’m curious how many scouts will actually be there for this event. The 2010s are grouped with 11’s, 12’s and 13’s for SD and there are no 09’s, 08’s, or 07/06’s.

Starting to feel like this group keeps getting passed over.

The NC event will be grouped with the olders (08’s and 09’s).
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very interesting...
 
Veritas said:
For me it still seems obvious to also do the SD showcase. It's local, low out of pocket cost and plenty of scouts should be there. It's a no brainer... so while going to NC may be a smart move, not going to SD is a dumb move.
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Scouts only need to watch players one time to decide if there's interest.

I'm going to assume that there will be 4-5 more local showcases that Legends players can / will participate in before they graduate from HS.

A change of scenery and being able to play against different opponents might open up new and different opportunities. I think they'll mop the floor with East Coast teams and generate a lot of interest.
 
I still don’t think we’ll see many college scouts at 2010 games just yet. June 2026 is still too far away.

If we did, you’d see them in SD. Top three teams in SR will all be there, and they play each other.
 
Zeke said:
I still don’t think we’ll see many college scouts at 2010 games just yet. June 2026 is still too far away.

If we did, you’d see them in SD. Top three teams in SR will all be there, and they play each other.
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I doubt there will be anyone there. The way they scheduled the games if your not a top 3 team then this showcase is a huge waste of time and money. Maybe US scouts but they will only be at those top 3 teams games.
 
NorCalDad said:
I thought HUDL was streaming these matches last year. Anyone know what happened with that? Or is my memory messed up on this?
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No idea. The white HUDL cameras were up, so I assume they recorded it. I can't find it anywhere, though.
 
Veritas said:
Anyone know what happened to MVLA ?
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Veritas said:
Anyone know what happened to MVLA ?

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MVLA ECNL G10 lost some good players to other clubs, including FC Bay Surf. As always in life, it is extremely difficult to stay motivated and hungry to improve and recruit more competitive players when MVLA is usually the big fish in a small pond in NorCal.

MVLA usually dominates and destroys teams in the NorCal league, so they get complacent until they come to the national tournaments and get some reality checks, especially against many of the SoCal teams. In SoCal, the competition is fiercer and more relentless, so the clubs are always pressure to improve and find edge including their overall team roster year over year.
 
Extremely disappointed in the quality of fields at the SD ECNL Showcase. I thought ECNL had standards. Surf Sports of whoever manages these fields should be ashamed. Having teams travel to play on this crap is a shame. Half dirt and half grass. Impossible to make a clean pass as it goes from dirt to grass to dirt. Girls getting hurt all over the place. Yellow cards all over the place because the crap fields lead to boot ball and balls bouncing all over the place. Absolutely unacceptable. There are a couple great fields and the rest are absolutely unacceptable. They didn’t even bother re-striping them for the showcase.
 
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