Agree but two caveats:Based on other countries with Delta we have seen it all run its course in roughly 8 weeks.
I honestly wonder why people freak out. Make crazy projections.
We have real world data from a variety of western countries who have had their delta wave. Those waves all lasted roughly the same amount of time. Lots of cases, relatively few extra deaths.
Logically one would assume we would look at that and go with that.
And yet we see doomsday forecasts, plans for restrictions, etc.
Why do we assume the US is going to experience it differently vs any other place?
Now some may say overall it will be around longer. That in a sense may be true. However regionally (the South, the SW, the Midwest, the East) I lay money they see similar curves to what other countries already have. And those countries didn't have a bad experience.
The UK if you look at it now is plateaued...my best guess it's a combination of their d---- the torpedos position re natural infection, the fact that the other countries (besides England) did not remove all their restrictions and are now at the peak of their respective waves), and that England had its wave "out of season".
The southern US (and Los Angeles) are following the same seasonal pattern as last year. But IF (have no idea if it is or isn't) seasonality is a big part of the effect, we should see more severe winter waves particularly in the north....the other variable here is how the thing continues to mutate. How messed up is Los Angeles, BTW, to have a double season: both summer and winter???