Bad News Thread

member all the praise Korea got for its contact tracing and it was a success story to be modeled by others? Then they got stuck with 500 cases a day in a long, slow burn.....look at em now.....ooops. Member?

www.worldometers.info

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Grace T. said:
California is going to have to decide what to do pretty soon....like the UK a few weeks ago positivity and cases are rising, deaths on the floor.

COVID-19 Home

covid19.ca.gov covid19.ca.gov
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The current surge is too new to show up in death stats. Deaths are a lagging indicator averaged over a long time interval. You'll need to wait a good four more weeks if you want to use deaths as your yardstick.

Use hospitalizations.
 
dad4 said:
The current surge is too new to show up in death stats. Deaths are a lagging indicator averaged over a long time interval. You'll need to wait a good four more weeks if you want to use deaths as your yardstick.

Use hospitalizations.
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True, but we can project out by using the UK hospitalizations. Rising but no where near even the first wave. Also remember there tends to be an overcount in hospitalizations since say for example if you are a pregnant woman delivering a child but are found to be COVID positive you will be counted as a hospitalization since you do need to be treated while under their care.

ourworldindata.org

UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
 
Grace T. said:
True, but we can project out by using the UK hospitalizations. Rising but no where near even the first wave. Also remember there tends to be an overcount in hospitalizations since say for example if you are a pregnant woman delivering a child but are found to be COVID positive you will be counted as a hospitalization since you do need to be treated while under their care.

ourworldindata.org

UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
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When you "project out" using UK numbers, how do you adjust for the fact that their vax rate is a lot higher than ours?

You can't just assume it's the same. The vax rate is the mechanism for the decoupling. Are you assuming linear?
 
dad4 said:
When you "project out" using UK numbers, how do you adjust for the fact that their vax rate is a lot higher than ours?

You can't just assume it's the same. The vax rate is the mechanism for the decoupling. Are you assuming linear?
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Well the Uk also went with the 1 dose to everyone first strategy as well and are dealing with the added variable of the az vaccine which early indications say is 20% less effective after the second dose than Pfizer (the low j&j uptake may prove to be a blessing in disguise in the us). Don’t know how this will play out in Alabama (I think you and I agree much more poorly than in California) but California’s rate is over 50% fully vaxxed while the uk is over 60%. Given the level as well of natural immunity, particularly in SoCal, while I agree the numbers won’t be identical they will be similar.
 
Grace T. said:
Well the Uk also went with the 1 dose to everyone first strategy as well and are dealing with the added variable of the az vaccine which early indications say is 20% less effective after the second dose than Pfizer (the low j&j uptake may prove to be a blessing in disguise in the us). Don’t know how this will play out in Alabama (I think you and I agree much more poorly than in California) but California’s rate is over 50% fully vaxxed while the uk is over 60%. Given the level as well of natural immunity, particularly in SoCal, while I agree the numbers won’t be identical they will be similar.
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The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local).

The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case. I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.
 
Grace T. said:
The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local).

The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case. I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.
Click to expand...
It really is a sticky wicket. I’d venture (nationwide now) 1/3 of the pop is still very frightened and doesn’t want to ever get the virus and 1/3 of the population just wants this to be over. The problem is both those 1/3 are dealing with a fantasy: odds are you will and no it’s not over.
 
Grace T. said:
The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local).

The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case. I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.
Click to expand...

"...panic..."
 
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