Bad News Thread

I think we agree the the war in Nam was BS, right? To all the brave men & woman WHO fought in that shit, I love you. My older brother was a gunner at 17 years young. 50% death rate. Why? Watch this video. I actually see him in the video. Insane. BTW, he was saved years ago after dealing with all his PTSD. Liars will pay for their crimes so they can make a buck!!!


 
Kicker4Life said:
Like someone who thinks numbers will tell us how to stop a virus? How has that worked for Influenza A, B or any other once novel virus (ie H1N1)?
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Well, yes. The people who put together each year’s flu vaccine use numbers to predict what should go in it, whether it works, and whether it is safe.

If you take any medicine, there are a team of statisticians behind the medicine you take.

If you think about it, you want it that way. You can go to a holistic shaman who gives you healing crystals and ground up peach pits for your cancer. It just tends not to work out so well.
 
Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus. Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases. He said it was because of the weather! You can't make this shit up.
 
dad4 said:
Well, yes. The people who put together each year’s flu vaccine use numbers to predict what should go in it, whether it works, and whether it is safe.

If you take any medicine, there are a team of statisticians behind the medicine you take.

If you think about it, you want it that way. You can go to a holistic shaman who gives you healing crystals and ground up peach pits for your cancer. It just tends not to work out so well.
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The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.

We've had this argument before. The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science. Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem). It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.
 
watfly said:
Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus. Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases. He said it was because of the weather! You can't make this shit up.
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You sure Dr. Jha isn't Dad4?
 
Grace T. said:
The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.

We've had this argument before. The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science. Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem). It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.
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Fauci's job is dependent on how much he doesn't know.
 
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The Orwellian proposals keep piling up, and Ron DeSantis continues to be a hero.

When Joe Biden hinted weeks ago at the possibility of further lockdowns, DeSantis spoke to the press and said that that would absolutely not be happening in Florida.

When it sounded as if Biden might restrict travel to Florida, DeSantis pledged to resist.

Oh, and by the way: the anti-Florida ghouls are reduced to claiming that DeSantis must be suppressing Florida's true numbers.

Ha, yeah, that's plausible! So this theory is that the hospitals in Florida are actually bursting at the seams with COVID patients, but we can't know that because the official numbers aren't reliable?

I see. So every single hospital is in on the grand conspiracy, too? Not even one bit of anecdotal evidence of hospital overflow has managed to escape a single hospital?

It's almost sad what the Doomers are reduced to.

In a way it's encouraging, though: these people cannot explain Florida's numbers without dreaming up wild conspiracies. That means they're implicitly admitting that Florida's numbers are great. Otherwise they wouldn't need to be explained away.

Well, now DeSantis is resisting vaccine passports -- the Orwellian idea proposed by whoever is running Joe Biden -- as well.

“It’s completely unacceptable," he said. "You want to go to a movie theater, should you have to show that? No. You want to go to a game, [or] a theme park? No. So we’re not supportive of that.”

He is pledging to take executive action, as early as today.

As Jeff Deist put it, "No private business or industry would require vaccine passports without state sanction and a strong assist from lapdog media to overcome the terrible PR optics. It's a sick and crazy idea."

Meanwhile, check out media coverage of Florida. The New York Times just ran an article about rising "cases" in one of the four states in this chart. Which one do you suppose it was?

(Dark blue is New York, light blue is New Jersey, green is Michigan, and pink is Florida.)
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37cc3f0d-6e74-445f-94b2-87c7bb24c284.jpeg
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(Source: Financial Times analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins CSSE.)

Yes, they looked at those lines and decided to write an article about Florida's "rising cases."

Meanwhile, back on this planet, here's a comparison they won't make (but thanks to @yinonw on Twitter for making it):
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266ac6df-e92b-4d14-95d1-9bb02e18855f.jpeg
--Tom Woods
 
Meanwhile, Twitter just tagged a Tweet by infectious disease epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff of Harvard Medical School with this notice: "This Tweet is misleading. Learn why health officials recommend a vaccine for most people." You can't like or retweet it now.

Here's the crazy thing Professor Kulldorff wrote that generated that response:

"Thinking that everyone must be vaccinated is as scientifically flawed as thinking that nobody should. COVID vaccines are important for older high-risk people, and their care-takers. Those with prior natural infection do not need it. Nor children."
 
Grace T. said:
The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.

We've had this argument before. The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science. Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem). It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.
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You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three. And you have to do it all several months in advance,

If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year. They’re getting it right more than half the time.
 
happy9 said:
Do you think they would have followed the science and recommendations without the Nanny state telling them what to do? Most people I know, even those who dislike masking and the politics of government fear porn, understand the science and were wearing masks even before mask mandates.

Many act as if the crazy Karens and Franks represent society as a whole. That's like saying Antifa represents every progressive liberal in the pacific NW.
Since the government of AZ removed the mask mandates, most businesses haven't. Most people still wear them. How long will that last? I don't know but doesn't seem like removing the mask mandate has made everyone go commando - sans masks. Fear porn is everywhere - it's an effective control mechanism.
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The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.
 
dad4 said:
You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three. And you have to do it all several months in advance,

If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year. They’re getting it right more than half the time.
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Agree it's absurdly difficult. Do not agree that getting it right "more than half the time" is a good outcome, which is why various entities are looking to rethink flu vaccination.

Congrats to us BTW on nailing the third wave dynamics and what's afloat. You absolutely nailed the time frame even if you missed the location (Michigan instead of Florida) because of the weights you put on various factors. Still, credit where credit is due...pretty much described the dynamic which would take place and we can see from Europe what the result would have been but for vaccines.
 
crush said:
I think we agree the the war in Nam was BS, right? To all the brave men & woman WHO fought in that shit, I love you. My older brother was a gunner at 17 years young. 50% death rate. Why? Watch this video. I actually see him in the video. Insane. BTW, he was saved years ago after dealing with all his PTSD. Liars will pay for their crimes so they can make a buck!!!


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How do you feel about our intervention in Latin America and the Middle East?
 
Hüsker Dü said:
The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.
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What's happening at the border totally belies this. Funny too the migrants in San Diego will be getting in person schooling before some other kids in the area.
 
watfly said:
Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus. Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases. He said it was because of the weather! You can't make this shit up.
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And you couldn’t put two and two together? Lol! I’m laughing at you not with you.
 
Grace T. said:
Canada rising. No surprise here given what's up in Michigan....

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
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In the US besides Michigan, hard hit NY and Rhode Island are rising but not as fast, but all of New England and as far south as Maryland are going up on the eastern seaboard. It's almost like weather and regional patterns are the chief movers of when a wave will hit.
 
dad4 said:
You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three. And you have to do it all several months in advance,

If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year. They’re getting it right more than half the time.
Click to expand...
So why did we shutdown again? You know? Since they get it right half the time?
 
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