Bad News Thread

[kickingandscreaming]

For n=1? P is not defined. If you want to do stats, you need more data points, like unemployment rates for Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

 

[dad4]

agree with this. Hawaii enacted very strict policies including indoor dining, a quarantine for travelers and outdoor restrictions. But they left the door and borders open if you quarantined or worked for the airlines. A few quarantine violations and an outbreak at a flight attendant training and it went south. Worst unemployment in the us, massive damage to their tourist industry where 1/5 businesses have closed and while their results are better than some places they still got the virus. As I’ve been telling you forever: it is an all or nothing proposition (not really nothing but certainly what you’d regard as nothing). La had the strictest measures outside of Hawaii in the us and still ended where it did economically and virus’s wise.

I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits. The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.

Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner. Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again. Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.

Not because I think he’s an evil guy. I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits. The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.

Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner. Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again. Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.

Not because I think he’s an evil guy. I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.

What nonsense.

 

[Grace T.]

I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits. The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.

Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner. Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again. Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.

Not because I think he’s an evil guy. I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.

The protests in April may broke everything. Unless you were prepared to crack down on them (even peaceful ones and with violent force if necessary) you’d always get to the dinner parties. Because you can’t have restrictions by veto— once one thing has special exemption everyone feels entitled to one.

 

[happy9]

My neighbor owns a bike shop.....I can confirm your theory is true, at least for him.

Many bike shops are thriving, even with a shortage of bikes and bike parts. The used bike market has skyrocketed. My local shop has been booked 4-6 weeks out since May 2020. They were by appointment only until recently. They finally decided to open their doors for daily traffic.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Not even mask manufacturers are as religious, about mask wearing as an infectious disease deterrent, as some of the self proclaimed "qualified".

 

[Hüsker Dü]

Many bike shops are thriving, even with a shortage of bikes and bike parts. The used bike market has skyrocketed. My local shop has been booked 4-6 weeks out since May 2020. They were by appointment only until recently. They finally decided to open their doors for daily traffic.

I have an appointment in late April. Good for them!

 

[crush]

Why is Franklin giving us the opinion of Christ and what Christ would do?

"The internet is full of articles, theories, data, and opinions concerning the COVID-19 vaccines—both positive and negative. There’s a lot out there for you to read. I have been asked my opinion about the vaccine by the media and others. I have even been asked if Jesus were physically walking on earth now, would He be an advocate for vaccines. My answer was that based on the parable of the Good Samaritan in the Bible, I would have to say—yes, I think Jesus Christ would advocate for people using vaccines and medicines to treat suffering and save lives. In this Scripture passage, Jesus told about a man beaten and wounded, lying on the roadside as religious leaders passed by and didn’t help. But a Samaritan, considered a social outcast of the day, becomes the hero of the story when he stops and cares for the injured man—pouring oil and wine, which were the top medicines of the day, on the man’s wounds. We also know that Jesus went from town to town healing “every disease and sickness.” He came to save life—to offer us eternal life. Did Jesus need a vaccine Himself? Of course not. He is God.

So, my own personal opinion is that from what we know, a vaccine can help save lives and prevent suffering. Samaritan’s Purse has operated COVID-19 emergency field hospitals, and we have seen the suffering firsthand. I also have staff and their family members who contracted the virus and spent weeks on a ventilator and months hospitalized as a result—I don’t want anyone to have to go through that. Vaccines have worked for polio, smallpox, measles, the flu and so many other deadly illnesses—why not for this virus? Since there are different vaccines available, my recommendation is that people do their research, talk to their doctor, and pray about it to determine which vaccine, if any, is right for them. My wife and I have both had the vaccine; and at 68 years old, I want to get as many more miles out of these old bones as possible!

This is a sales pitch of lies from a phony. He's the same guy that says all you have to do is say a prayer and all is good. Liar!!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

3 Hawaii residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19 are infected with the coronavirus

Shocking!!

 

[crush]

Honestly everyone, do you believe these three guys? What kind of info commercial is this? One guy lied so much we went to war. I have friend who has no legs because of his lies. The other dude, well we know what he lied about. The last guy, just wait until we all find out what the hell he was up to. These three really do care about all of us, dont they. I can hear it in their voice. Sad!!!

"It could save your life." Ha, it will also infect you with the Rona and then you could die. Good luck folks!!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Why is Franklin giving us the opinion of Christ and what Christ would do?

"The internet is full of articles, theories, data, and opinions concerning the COVID-19 vaccines—both positive and negative. There’s a lot out there for you to read. I have been asked my opinion about the vaccine by the media and others. I have even been asked if Jesus were physically walking on earth now, would He be an advocate for vaccines. My answer was that based on the parable of the Good Samaritan in the Bible, I would have to say—yes, I think Jesus Christ would advocate for people using vaccines and medicines to treat suffering and save lives. In this Scripture passage, Jesus told about a man beaten and wounded, lying on the roadside as religious leaders passed by and didn’t help. But a Samaritan, considered a social outcast of the day, becomes the hero of the story when he stops and cares for the injured man—pouring oil and wine, which were the top medicines of the day, on the man’s wounds. We also know that Jesus went from town to town healing “every disease and sickness.” He came to save life—to offer us eternal life. Did Jesus need a vaccine Himself? Of course not. He is God.

So, my own personal opinion is that from what we know, a vaccine can help save lives and prevent suffering. Samaritan’s Purse has operated COVID-19 emergency field hospitals, and we have seen the suffering firsthand. I also have staff and their family members who contracted the virus and spent weeks on a ventilator and months hospitalized as a result—I don’t want anyone to have to go through that. Vaccines have worked for polio, smallpox, measles, the flu and so many other deadly illnesses—why not for this virus? Since there are different vaccines available, my recommendation is that people do their research, talk to their doctor, and pray about it to determine which vaccine, if any, is right for them. My wife and I have both had the vaccine; and at 68 years old, I want to get as many more miles out of these old bones as possible!

This is a sales pitch of lies from a phony. He's the same guy that says all you have to do is say a prayer and all is good. Liar!!!

Good ole Matthew

9“All this I will give You,” he said, “if You will fall down and worship me.” 10“Away from Me, Satan!” Jesus declared. “For it is written: ‘Worship the Lord your God and serve Him only.’” 11Then the devil left Him, and angels came and ministered to Him.…

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It's been over six weeks since Iowa dropped all state-level COVID restrictions. Well, how about this: hospitalized patients are down 54 percent. I promise you that when the governor lifted restrictions, the hysterics were not saying: "If you drop restrictions, hospitalized patients will plummet 54 percent." They had rather more grim predictions. And yet here we are -- once again. To the retort that cases have leveled off in Iowa in recent days and have stopped their steep descent, the same is true of all 11 other Midwestern states, with their variety of restrictions/openings. Now in case you needed further evidence that so-called mainstream sources have exaggerated the COVID threat, note this survey from Gallup and Franklin Templeton asking people what they believe the likelihood of hospitalization is for a given COVID-19 "case." The correct answer is between one and five percent. Note how few people get the answer right. A strong plurality have somehow managed to become so uninformed that they think the answer is over 50%:

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I would propose that perhaps the dog‘s barking causes the mailman to appear. The presence of ears on the mailman hints at a possible mechanism for this association. More research is needed....

It is hard to explain to people why they should wear something that only works some of the time.

It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out. This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all. And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect. But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.

It's even harder to explain it when people are initially misled about whether masks should be worn and then expect them to blindly follow "new" studies that appear to contradict old studies about mask efficacy. Of course, you didn't address the primary point of my post - the "human" element of people believing that masks are as effective as a vaccine (due to misinformation) and the risks they take with masks on that they otherwise wouldn't. On top of that pile throw on the fact that experts' predictions are regularly wildly inaccurate. Maybe these people you reference aren't the only ones who are confused.

 

[dad4]

It's even harder to explain it when people are initially misled about whether masks should be worn and then expect them to blindly follow "new" studies that appear to contradict old studies about mask efficacy. Of course, you didn't address the primary point of my post - the "human" element of people believing that masks are as effective as a vaccine (due to misinformation) and the risks they take with masks on that they otherwise wouldn't. On top of that pile throw on the fact that experts' predictions are regularly wildly inaccurate. Maybe these people you reference aren't the only ones who are confused.

I was writing to the human element. We have an easy time understanding oven mitts. When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned. If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned. It’s simple.

As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.

We have a difficult time getting people to use condoms because the risk half is uncertain. You do not know whether the other person has a disease.

With covid, the risk half and the prevention half are both uncertain. You do not know whether someone is infected, and you do not know whether either of your masks will prevent transmission. It feels like asking people to wear oven mitts, when the mitts fail half the time and no one knows which pans are hot. And it won’t even be you who gets burned.

So many people default to believing that masks always work- and take higher risks, Or they believe that masks never work- and do not wear them.

Either assumption is easier than getting your head around the fact that my mask doesn’t protect me, doesn’t necessarily protect you, but somehow does protect everyone. It’s a good description of any 70% effective health measure, but it just sounds wrong.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I was writing to the human element. We have an easy time understanding oven mitts. When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned. If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned. It’s simple.

As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.

We have a difficult time getting people to use condoms because the risk half is uncertain. You do not know whether the other person has a disease.

With covid, the risk half and the prevention half are both uncertain. You do not know whether someone is infected, and you do not know whether either of your masks will prevent transmission. It feels like asking people to wear oven mitts, when the mitts fail half the time and no one knows which pans are hot. And it won’t even be you who gets burned.

So many people default to believing that masks always work- and take higher risks, Or they believe that masks never work- and do not wear them.

Either assumption is easier than getting your head around the fact that my mask doesn’t protect me, doesn’t necessarily protect you, but somehow does protect everyone. It’s a good description of any 70% effective health measure, but it just sounds wrong.

Remember that time they shut the economy down, and let our parents die alone because of infectious ovens and unsafe sex? Good grief. I'd rather have P-values than the mindless and disparate analogies.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I was writing to the human element. We have an easy time understanding oven mitts. When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned. If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned. It’s simple.

As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.

We have a difficult time getting people to use condoms because the risk half is uncertain. You do not know whether the other person has a disease.

With covid, the risk half and the prevention half are both uncertain. You do not know whether someone is infected, and you do not know whether either of your masks will prevent transmission. It feels like asking people to wear oven mitts, when the mitts fail half the time and no one knows which pans are hot. And it won’t even be you who gets burned.

So many people default to believing that masks always work- and take higher risks, Or they believe that masks never work- and do not wear them.

Either assumption is easier than getting your head around the fact that my mask doesn’t protect me, doesn’t necessarily protect you, but somehow does protect everyone. It’s a good description of any 70% effective health measure, but it just sounds wrong.

You are still missing the human element of trust. It's the messenger more than the message that's the problem.

In terms of communication, go back to first principles. COVID is a virus that is definitely spread through saliva droplets and possibly through smaller particles. When worn correctly, a mask reduces the spread of these particles to some extent for a finite period of time. Being outside and several feet apart significantly reduces risk whether wearing a mask or not.

 

[watfly]

The protests in April may broke everything. Unless you were prepared to crack down on them (even peaceful ones and with violent force if necessary) you’d always get to the dinner parties. Because you can’t have restrictions by veto— once one thing has special exemption everyone feels entitled to one.

While I agree and it certainly proved that many restrictions were political, arbitrary and not credible, I think its too easy to scapegoat the protests and French Laundry. Our country because of its freedoms and pioneer spirit is ill designed to handle a pandemic. Like EOTL mentioned its the American Way, although his definition of that is cross burning rednecks, the true definition is creativity, resourcefulness and self reliance. We overcome obstacles, not hide from them. For those that had an incentive to overcome the obstacles, like small business (unlike the public teachers unions), they weren't willing to put up with the government demands to hide at home when they could operate successfully with some creative solutions. Furthermore, the Covid risk is relative. Some people have more risks unrelated to Covid at their job or walking the streets in their neighborhood.

With more and more government involvement we seeing less self reliance. This is particularly true in the big cities where everything is available at your finger tips and you rely on more government services like public transportation. Which in turn is why the big cities are bastions of left wing ideology that government should always be there to bail us out.

I think the protests and the French Laundry weren't so much a green light to ignore certain restrictions but more a rationalization for already existing behavior, and/or evidence for conclusions that most of us had already reached previously.

 

[Grace T.]

While I agree and it certainly proved that many restrictions were political, arbitrary and not credible, I think its too easy to scapegoat the protests and French Laundry. Our country because of its freedoms and pioneer spirit is ill designed to handle a pandemic. Like EOTL mentioned its the American Way, although his definition of that is cross burning rednecks, the true definition is creativity, resourcefulness and self reliance. We overcome obstacles, not hide from them. For those that had an incentive to overcome the obstacles, like small business (unlike the public teachers unions), they weren't willing to put up with the government demands to hide at home when they could operate successfully with some creative solutions. Furthermore, the Covid risk is relative. Some people have more risks unrelated to Covid at their job or walking the streets in their neighborhood.

With more and more government involvement we seeing less self reliance. This is particularly true in the big cities where everything is available at your finger tips and you rely on more government services like public transportation. Which in turn is why the big cities are bastions of left wing ideology that government should always be there to bail us out.

I think the protests and the French Laundry weren't so much a green light to ignore certain restrictions but more a rationalization for already existing behavior, and/or evidence for conclusions that most of us had already reached previously.

Yes and no. I agree that many of us had reached the conclusion previously, but what made it different is that it gave people permission to break the social compact that "we are all in this together" because clearly we weren't. The antilockdown protests, for example, were received with widespread condemnation. The argument for the Floyd protests was that this was important since police brutality was costing lives particularly against a disadvantage class. But the problem was that many people had things which were also import that they were being asked to sacrifice: funerals, saying goodbye to a loved one, businesses built over a life time, the education of their kids, worship, mental well being, weddings. From there it spirals out....the 20 year old guy who doesn't want to go celibate for a year, going to see grandma for what might be her last thanksgiving, the Dangie Bros' kegger to celebrate their graduation next door to me. Remember at the time the big argument was well if they can go and protest why can't I go worship my God at church?

It would have been impossible in the US anyway to suppress the protests. They are protected by the first amendment. Would have required a President to likely suspend the Constitution, to tell SCOTUS to go stuff it, and to then suppress the resulting backlash.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You'd think Phil Murphy, governor of New Jersey -- which has the worst COVID death rate of any American state -- would have the decency to keep his mouth shut on the subject.

Well, you'd be wrong.

When asked about Texas' decision to repeal its statewide mask mandate, Murphy replied that he was "stunned" and that he "couldn't conceive of lifting a mask mandate inside."

How about we see how both states are doing?

(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)

 

[Bruddah IZ]

California, meanwhile, has seen its numbers come way down from their peak. They are of course pretending that their lockdown did the trick. The problem is this: Nevada didn't lock down as much and Arizona locked down even less, and yet:

​ (Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)