Bad News Thread

[Bruddah IZ]

You’re choosing a bad data representation to hide things you don’t want to talk about. I don’t play that game.

If you want to talk risk, use IFR. How many deaths per infected person. Over the last year, it’s about 540,000 -640,000 deaths among 170M-200M cases. Around one death per 300 infections. Or one death per 500 people overall.

If you live in a normal suburb, that’s equivalent to one unnecessary death within a 3 block walk from your front door. So, one of your neighbors dies, ten of your neighbors have an unpleasant hospital stay, but everyone else is pretty much ok. Is it worth wearing masks to avoid that?

You could also think of it in terms of your kid’s elementary school. In a 500 child school, how many grandparents is it ok to lose to covid? If you have an IFR of 1% for people aged 60-69, that would be equivalent to about 10 kids losing a grandparent. Again, does this seem important enough to be worth masking up?

One might wonder how Grandparents got older in the absence of mask decade after decade while enjoying their grandchildren.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

NY never got to 70/80%, but they still opened up restaurants, bars, gyms, and stadiums. If course they deserve some blame.

Cowards like you are to blame.

 

[N00B]

You want to argue as though 500K people dead is the same as zero people dead, because both reflect a 99%+ survival rate.

Not criticizing your position or reasoning, but as a parent of more than one child (relative ages and impact of COVID restrictions in California surely color the opinion), I don’t understand the ‘for the societal good’ tenor of your comments in this thread.

Yes, 500k+ deaths in 2020 was awful. If that repeats due to variants it’s also awful, but to date variants haven’t shown any statistically relevant number of ‘breakthrough’ reinfections when vaccinated or deaths as a result of infection post vaccination.

That said, a year in the life of a child or adolescent lost, damaged, or otherwise (in my opinion) has a larger societal impact than the reduction in the average life expectancy by 1yr due to COVID.

I applaud your desire to reopen schools and outdoor spaces to minimize the impact on our youth, but NPI’s to protect those that should they wish it have access to vaccinations, seems a bit against ‘for the societal good’ from a net benefit point of view.

 

[dad4]

Not criticizing your position or reasoning, but as a parent of more than one child (relative ages and impact of COVID restrictions in California surely color the opinion), I don’t understand the ‘for the societal good’ tenor of your comments in this thread.

Yes, 500k+ deaths in 2020 was awful. If that repeats due to variants it’s also awful, but to date variants haven’t shown any statistically relevant number of ‘breakthrough’ reinfections when vaccinated or deaths as a result of infection post vaccination.

That said, a year in the life of a child or adolescent lost, damaged, or otherwise (in my opinion) has a larger societal impact than the reduction in the average life expectancy by 1yr due to COVID.

I applaud your desire to reopen schools and outdoor spaces to minimize the impact on our youth, but NPI’s to protect those that should they wish it have access to vaccinations, seems a bit against ‘for the societal good’ from a net benefit point of view.

I am not arguing for school or park closures to deal with variants. Masks seem a better option.

I do think we should all still wear masks, in part to deal with variants, and in part to reduce infections as covid declines.

I do not believe that everyone who needs a vaccine has one. Deaths are still running at 500 to 1000 per day. Until that number drops below 100, we should assume that there are significant numbers of unvaccinated vulnerable people.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I am not arguing for school or park closures to deal with variants. Masks seem a better option.

I do think we should all still wear masks, in part to deal with variants, and in part to reduce infections as covid declines.

I do not believe that everyone who needs a vaccine has one. Deaths are still running at 500 to 1000 per day. Until that number drops below 100, we should assume that there are significant numbers of unvaccinated vulnerable people.

Speaking of deaths. How 'bout that R-squared?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

(1) The Washington Post just wrote, "Some studies indicate that mask mandates and limitations on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, but less clear is why states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them." Well, well, well. (2) The New York Times just wrote, "The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. 'It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air,' said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University." You don't say! (3) Let's compare Midwestern states with lots of restrictions (blue) with Midwestern states with few or no restrictions (red). I'll bet it's just awful in the more open states.

 

[crush]

"Before he was Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci was a curious boy in Brooklyn, delivering prescriptions from his father’s pharmacy on his blue Schwinn bicycle," the Simon & Schuster website reveals.

 

[dad4]

Speaking of deaths. How 'bout that R-squared?

I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.

You never answered.

This one is simple. There is no serious argument whether masks or dining correlate with covid cases or deaths. For both masks and dining, p< 0.01

That's why you have to post graphs you found on Twitter and various fringe sites. The publishable data disagrees with you.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.

You never answered.

This one is simple. There is no serious argument whether masks or dining correlate with covid cases or deaths. For both masks and dining, p< 0.01

That's why you have to post graphs you found on Twitter and various fringe sites. The publishable data disagrees with you.

There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.

It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.

 

[crush]

There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.

It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.

Notice all the shootings bro? No scam, no plan. Scam + plan= A Scamplan. Basically, you come up with a game plan when your scamming the folks.

 

[crush]

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Border crossings? What fraction of US cases are directly connected to an illegal border crossing? I’d be amazed if it were as high as 1%. There just are not that many people crossing each day. It’s a few thousand on a bad day. Most of them, like most of us, do not have covid. Even if 1% of them have covid, that explains about 50 cases per day, out of 50,000.

To take your analogy, yes, the barn gate is open. And every day, a few horses wander in or out of the barn. How does that explain the half million palominos running around last month?

Domestic transmission is over 99% of cases. Can we talk about that first?

Yes, and we need to start with beards. F'ing Amish!

To shave or not to shave? How beards may affect Covid-19 risk | CNN

An important part of wearing face masks to reduce Covid-19 risk is that the mask fits snugly to your face. Is it time to give up beards, then? Experts weigh in on the risk and alternatives.

www.cnn.com

 

[crush]

Bump

 

[crush]

Franklin Graham Urges Clergy to Support COVID Vaccines, Says Jesus Would Have Used Them Too



This is bull crap lie from brother Franklin. How does he know what Jesus would do? In fact, Jesus would NOT get the vaccine. This is BS!!! Here's the deal. His father spread some false teaching back in the day, MOO!!! I was 18 when I heard one of his tapes titled, "Hell." He said hell was 7 times hotter than fire and because I sinned so much as a teenager, I was heading straight to the dungeon, where gnashing and grinding of teeth is what you do 24/7 ((bring a lot of tooth paste)) and where the snakes are the leaders, spiders, Hitler, Jeff Dummer, Manson and the all greats will be with you. Plus, Satan or Lucifer will be there as well. His old man went around scaring the shit out of all of us, MOO!! Billy said all we have to do is say a prayer and were saved. He did say you really have to mean it in your heart, so he told the folks at Anaheim Stadium you must walk down to the field to show the folks and God you mean it this time. I knew many people who asked Jesus to come into heart on Sunday but then on Friday and Saturday nights they kicked Jesus out of their heart. They would repeat this action over and over. Anyway, let's get real folks is my point. Scare tactics is not the answer to a loving relationship with the creator.

 

[dad4]

There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.

It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.

I would propose that perhaps the dog‘s barking causes the mailman to appear. The presence of ears on the mailman hints at a possible mechanism for this association. More research is needed....

It is hard to explain to people why they should wear something that only works some of the time.

It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out. This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all. And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect. But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.

You never answered.

This one is simple. There is no serious argument whether masks or dining correlate with covid cases or deaths. For both masks and dining, p< 0.01

That's why you have to post graphs you found on Twitter and various fringe sites. The publishable data disagrees with you.

Because P-values are useless if you aren't going to compare cases to deaths.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

(1) The Washington Post just wrote, "Some studies indicate that mask mandates and limitations on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, but less clear is why states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them." Well, well, well.

(2) The New York Times just wrote, "The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. 'It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air,' said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University." You don't say!

(3) Let's compare Midwestern states with lots of restrictions (blue) with Midwestern states with few or no restrictions (red). I'll bet it's just awful in the more open states.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Franklin Graham Urges Clergy to Support COVID Vaccines, Says Jesus Would Have Used Them Too

View attachment 10455

This is bull crap lie from brother Franklin. How does he know what Jesus would do? In fact, Jesus would NOT get the vaccine. This is BS!!! Here's the deal. His father spread some false teaching back in the day, MOO!!! I was 18 when I heard one of his tapes titled, "Hell." He said hell was 7 times hotter than fire and because I sinned so much as a teenager, I was heading straight to the dungeon, where gnashing and grinding of teeth is what you do 24/7 ((bring a lot of tooth paste)) and where the snakes are the leaders, spiders, Hitler, Jeff Dummer, Manson and the all greats will be with you. Plus, Satan or Lucifer will be there as well. His old man went around scaring the shit out of all of us, MOO!! Billy said all we have to do is say a prayer and were saved. He did say you really have to mean so he told the folks at Anaheim Stadium you must walk down to the field to show the folks and God you mean it this time. I knew many people who asked Jesus to come into heart on Sunday but then on Friday and Saturday nights they kicked Jesus out of their heart. They would repeat this action over and over. Anyway, let's get real folks is my point. Scare tactics is not the answer to a loving relationship with the creator.

The Pharisees are very effective and a part of the Psy-Ops.

 

[crush]

The Pharisees are very effective and a part of the Psy-Ops.

Oh yes. They 100% were behind the death of Christ. Not everyone who says, "Lord, Lord" is right with lord. Lucifer was the most beautiful and power of all God's Angels. He wanted the power bro so he and his pals took on Michael the Arch Angel and his thousands of Angles and duked it out. Michael kicked his ass with the others and Satan was kicked out of heaven, just like that. Adam & Eve got tricked by Lucifer as "the man" and the rest is history. Adam tried to go back to the Garden but an Angel stood at the entrance and no one is allowed back until Christ comes back. The first time Jesus came he was a baby, a lamb, carpenter, did miracles and many other wonderful things. The second time he comes, he will be a Lion from the line of Judah and will bring swift judgement. You see, our justice system is corrupt around the world. Most are blackmailed. No more hiding everyone. Time to expose your deeds and repent. Where would old Lucifer be hiding in plane site Bruddah?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out. This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all. And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect. But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.

Herd immunity takes place in the absence of transmission?