Bad News Thread

[dad4]

Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.

You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations. If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B. Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates. ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)

You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates. For example, you could look at England (Feb) versus New York (Mar). Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not. So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations. If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B. Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates. ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)

You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates. For example, you could look at England (Feb) versus New York (Mar). Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not. So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.

Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?

 

[Grace T.]

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work. Vaccines work. Bars and restaurants spread covid. Multi family households spread covid. Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor. Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning. Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much. Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ. The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion. And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.

The arguments over how much weight to give each factor and what “work” “spread” and “safe” mean.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow? That wasn’t the NYT.

Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.

Reopening RI: Indoor Dining Regulations In Phase 2

Restaurants will be allowed to offer limited indoor dining in Rhode Island starting June 1.

patch.com

So, they opened gyms and dining in June. Within a month, that stopped the improvement in case counts. While weather was good, open dining meant mostly flat cases. Once weather turned bad, open dining meant a huge spike.

Your chart no longer seems to prove what you said it proves.

It actually does. The chart says so much for the efficacy of mask and social distancing to lower case counts. I don't think you get how this works. Or how things should work given the following from your article:

Customers

• Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table.
• Customers are asked not to socialize with people at tables surrounding them.
• Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table. Parties of nine to 15 people should be seated at separate tables or outdoors.
• Online or phone reservations are strongly encouraged. If this is not possible, restaurants are asked to use an outdoor reservation or host stand system.
• At least one member of each party will be asked to provide their contact information for the Rhode Island Department of Health in case of an outbreak. This log must be kept for 30 days.
• Customers are asked to wear a fabric face covering when entering and exiting a restaurant and when in a common areas such as a hallway or restroom.

Employees

• The Rhode Island Department of Health encouraged businesses to stagger and group employee shifts so the same people work together every day.
• Businesses are asked to keep a work log with employee contact information in case of an outbreak.
• Employees should avoid coming within 6 feet of customers and other employees as much as possible.
• Employees, customers and anyone else visiting a restaurant should be screened for symptoms of illness. Self-screening with posted signs at the entrance is acceptable.
• Employees are asked to wear face masks whenever they cannot reasonably stay 6 feet away from others.
• Businesses must train employees on cleaning procedures and other new safety protocols. One employee must be designated to implement these procedures and ensure they are being followed.

Cleaning

• All restaurants must be thoroughly cleaned before opening.
• Tables, chairs and other high-touch surfaces must be sanitized between parties.
• Hand sanitizer or hand washing stations must be available to employees and customers.
• Self-serve areas such as buffets and salad bars are not allowed.
• Menus must be disposed of or sanitized between each use or digital, electronic or a whiteboard.
• Silverware must be disposable or sanitized between uses. Reusable silverware should be individually packaged or rolled.
• Self-serve drink refills are not allowed. Refills must be in a new, clean cup.
• Condiments are encouraged to be served in single-use packages, or only provided upon request and sanitized between uses.

 

[Glitterhater]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

 

[dad4]

Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

 

[crush]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

I think you're smart and insightful. I do love Bruddah but he kicked me around some when i needed it back in the day. Hound PM me one time told me to get my shit together. Actually, I had another old pal ((I wont share avatar name)) that PM me to to see if I was alright. I will admit I had some melt downs. I'm sorry for that. Dad is a liar. Grace is amazing and i feel her pain. EOTL represents the darkness and I love him too. You, I dont understand but you seem like a nice person. In fact, everyone I have met in soccer I love. It's a love hate kind of relationship. I feel all the parents pain and I can also feel how hard it must have been trying to coach kids and then have to deal with some of us parents. Were all nuts!!!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.

 

[dad4]

You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.

Sorry. This is biology. If you want predictions, try physics.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

How about a self assessment.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

Aren't the shots already outdated by the variants?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Now, for more virus info. Our friend Ian Miller (@ianmSC) just released these charts about Montana, with this commentary: "It’s remarkable to me that people can look at a chart like this and think 'yes, masks are an effective intervention.' Cases went up 1446% after Montana’s mask mandate on 7/15…now it’s been 2.5 weeks since they lifted the mandate and cases are down -35.2%. I just don't get it."

(Source: COVID Tracking Project) Honestly: if you hadn't been propagandized into believing that masks play an important role in all this, would you seriously look at those charts and say, "Thank goodness for masks"? Nobody would. And yet everyone repeats the obligatory paeans to masks. Here's a chart from Colorado. As one commentator put it, the people claiming that "it would have been worse without masks" are moving the goalposts. They used to cheer masks for preventing spikes like the one in the chart. Then we get a spike and instead of admitting they were wrong, they suddenly retreat to the unfalsifiable "it would have been worse" b.s.

(Source: covid19 dot colorado dot gov/data) Now let's travel to Europe. Let's compare the Czech Republic with Sweden. Before we do so, let's compare mask usage. The Czech Republic is in red; Sweden is in blue. (Sorry for the poor quality; what matters here are the magnitudes, which you can see.)

And now, daily deaths. The quotation in the chart below is from Eric Feigl-Ding, the nutritionist who has managed to pass himself off as an infectious disease expert and who has done nothing but spread fear and panic from the very beginning. He took an indirect swipe at the U.S. early on by claiming that the Czechs had "basically conquered COVID" after two months of mask wearing. Did he ever retract this? Need I even ask the question?

(Source: World Health Organization) OK, that's plenty of narrative-smashing for one day. Now for a special message: The old man here has created a whole bunch of online courses that people enjoy. He's figured out every aspect of it: equipment to use, how to edit your material, how to market it, how to make sales, etc. (And also how not to commit an atrocity after you've made a video and then when playing it back find that the audio hadn't been recording.) Online courses are an excellent way to dip your toe into earning some smackers online and diversify your sources of smackers. I think 2020 was a good object lesson in the need to do this. I've assembled some free resources for you -- an eBook and some demonstration videos -- if you're curious (and I hope you are):

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Journalist Brett Kelman just walked into a buzzsaw. Promoting his latest article on Twitter, he began: "As COVID-19 swept the American South over the past 12 months, our uninformed and selfish choices worsened the pandemic in every way. We paid the price in lives." In other words, the usual line: you stupid rubes wouldn't listen to your "public health" experts, so the deaths are all your fault. Well, Ian Miller, who compiles so many of the charts I share with you, happened to see this. The result was a brutal, bloody beatdown. Ian began: "Hey Brett, wondering if you can explain this to me...if behavior and rules are so important, why do all of these curves look the same?"

Ol' Brett came back with: "Short answer? Because the behavior was largely the same. My story covers 4 of these states, and in those states residents generally followed the same gathering patterns, resulting in similar infection curves." Ian wasn't about to let him get away with that. "You think people in South Carolina and Louisiana behaved the same way? Despite totally different rules and mandates? That’s the explanation? "How about Kansas and Illinois and West Virginia, same behavior there too?"

Ian keeps going. "Nevada opened the largest casinos and hotels in the world last spring while California’s been one of the most closed states in the country since March. So we know the behavior’s been different there. What happened?"

Ian won't stop. "Southern California counties have all had different rules at different times with wildly varying levels of compliance. Didn’t matter here either. Ever thought that maybe behavior is an excuse used by politicians to explain why their policies aren’t working?"

Kelman responded: "Have I thought about it? Yes. I would like to look more at these charts you are posting, but not as Twitter screenshots. Mind sharing your source for these images?" Ian proceeds to do so (they're listed at the bottom of each chart), with most of the data coming from the covidtracking dot com site. Kelman thanks him, and the exchange ends. It is virtually certain that Kelman had never seen any of this. He had bought the "it's your fault" argument hook, line, and sinker. The chart for Arizona, Nevada, and California is especially important, because the LA Times and the government of California are trying to take the credit for the decline in cases. But Arizona and Nevada didn't have such extreme lockdowns, and their curves are about the same. If we had actual journalists, our "public health officials" (I cannot use that phrase except inside mocking quotation marks) would be mercilessly interrogated about all this on a daily basis. What we have instead are curious, honest people like Ian Miller who report the truths we should be reading in the news.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?

From NY Times

One study found that just four out of 8,121 fully vaccinated employees at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas became infected. The other found that only seven out of 14,990 workers at UC San Diego Health and the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles tested positive two or more weeks after receiving a second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. Both reports, published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, show how well the vaccines work in the real world, and during a period of intense transmission.

...

Only some of the virus-positive health workers in the California study showed symptoms, she said, and they tended to be mild, suggesting that the vaccines were protective. That echoes data from the vaccine trials indicating that breakthrough infections were mild and did not require hospitalizations. Some people had no symptoms at all, and were discovered only through testing in studies or as part of their medical care.

Vaccinated People Can Get Covid, but It’s Most Likely Very Rare (Published 2021)

“Breakthrough” cases, though quite uncommon, are a sharp reminder that vaccinated people should wear masks while the virus is circulating widely.

www.nytimes.com

 

[dad4]

Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?

From NY Times

One study found that just four out of 8,121 fully vaccinated employees at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas became infected. The other found that only seven out of 14,990 workers at UC San Diego Health and the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles tested positive two or more weeks after receiving a second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. Both reports, published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, show how well the vaccines work in the real world, and during a period of intense transmission.

...

Only some of the virus-positive health workers in the California study showed symptoms, she said, and they tended to be mild, suggesting that the vaccines were protective. That echoes data from the vaccine trials indicating that breakthrough infections were mild and did not require hospitalizations. Some people had no symptoms at all, and were discovered only through testing in studies or as part of their medical care.

Vaccinated People Can Get Covid, but It’s Most Likely Very Rare (Published 2021)

“Breakthrough” cases, though quite uncommon, are a sharp reminder that vaccinated people should wear masks while the virus is circulating widely.

www.nytimes.com

Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?

Vaccines are great. When it’s your turn, get one.

Saw a decent summary on the question of vaccine resistant variants. Moderna appears to be partially effective against SA, CA, and Brazil. Lab effectiveness oniy. There is some suspicion that, in actual people, the reduced effectiveness may still be plenty to confer immunity.

Brief19 - Daily Review of Covid-19 Research and Policy

Brief19 is a daily executive summary of covid-19-related medical research, news, and public policy. It was founded and created by frontline emergency medicine physicians with expertise in medical research critique, health policy, and public policy.

brief19.com

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?

Vaccines are great. When it’s your turn, get one.

Saw a decent summary on the question of vaccine resistant variants. Moderna appears to be partially effective against SA, CA, and Brazil. Lab effectiveness oniy. There is some suspicion that, in actual people, the reduced effectiveness may still be plenty to confer immunity.

Brief19 - Daily Review of Covid-19 Research and Policy

Brief19 is a daily executive summary of covid-19-related medical research, news, and public policy. It was founded and created by frontline emergency medicine physicians with expertise in medical research critique, health policy, and public policy.

brief19.com

No, but you aren't differentiating between a case from someone who is vaccinated vs. someone who is not.

 

[crush]

I'm really getting concerned for some. I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid. Self-isolation is making people nuts!! This poor lady works from home, alone!!!

 

[Hüsker Dü]

I'm really getting concerned for some. I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid. Self-isolation is making people nuts!! This poor lady works from home, alone!!!

View attachment 10479

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

You’ll be okay. But your concerns are noted. Give papa joe some time to deliver you from your mental bondage.

 

[crush]

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first. It's called "land of the free" for a reason. When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this: "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white. I play in the middle Husker. The left went ape shit and you know it. They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot. WHO loses Husker? The kids. I told you this was going to happen. If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit. If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win. Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed. Love sees NO color. Teach with Mercy. Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!

 

[Hüsker Dü]

EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first. It's called "land of the free" for a reason. When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this: "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white. I play in the middle Husker. The left went ape shit and you know it. They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot. WHO loses Husker? The kids. I told you this was going to happen. If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit. If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win. Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed. Love sees NO color. Teach with Mercy. Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!

What’s a sexual orientation mandate? Believe in adoption? Must kneel? The “left went ape-shit” because trump was an obvious disaster starting with his American carnage speech (that was a head scratcher until he created the American carnage). You seem to be tossing some of your fears and angst into your post there.