Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
Same argument every city. “We are all built out. There is no more land.”

Same answer, every city. The land right there, under your feet.

If you change the zoning, it gets rebuilt. Have you ever seen a single story neighborhood that is zoned for 10 stories?

Or, you can have high rates of disease every time we have a new pandemic.
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Ever been to Tokyo?
 
crush said:
What is common sense? I know of five that man only cares about. Touch, sight, hearing, smell and taste. This is why folks only use less than 10% of their brain. Q me this Bruddah, where is the other 90% of the brain and why not work? DNA=Light. My advise for all is to get as much sun from the sunlight as possible.
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Vitamin D. The sunshine vitamin.
 
dad4 said:
Same argument every city. “We are all built out. There is no more land.”

Same answer, every city. The land right there, under your feet.

If you change the zoning, it gets rebuilt. Have you ever seen a single story neighborhood that is zoned for 10 stories?

Or, you can have high rates of disease every time we have a new pandemic.
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Globally, we’ve had over 12,000 pandemics since 1978.
 
Grace T. said:
As long as we are piling on: economic ruin (there would have been without lockdowns but not as much), children (particularly less privileged ones) losing a year plus education and the inequity which results, the mental suffering put on people (particularly children), increased suicides, increased illnesses from lack of screening (my mother and bestie finally scheduled their 2+ year delayed no mammograms....earliest appointments they could get is June), increased OD and substance abuse, increased physical abuse of kids/spouses locked away with their loved ones. The real question is how many of the 535,000 deaths are baked it (it's not even zero in Australia) and how much of this list is avoided without the NPIS (some of it would always be baked in too from just the pandemic existing).
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Fair question. But you and I can't answer it.

The answer depends on things like " how much can you reduce transmission with a particular NPI?" and " what is the impact of an x percent reduction in transmission?".

Without a common view of those two questions, you can't begin to say how many deaths were inevitable. And we do not share a view on either.
 
Kicker4Life said:
You’re good with numbers, can you please list the 2017 2018 2019 and then 2020 total deaths in the United States from all causes?
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Your search search engine works the same as mine.

Tends to be just under 3 million. We are running about 20% over that.

Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card? I thought we had a serious discussion going here.
 
dad4 said:
Your search search engine works the same as mine.

Tends to be just under 3 million. We are running about 20% over that.

Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card? I thought we had a serious discussion going here.
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No....I understand why you assume that, but I’m looking for straight imperial data.
 
Kicker4Life said:
You’re good with numbers, can you please list the 2017 2018 2019 and then 2020 total deaths in the United States from all causes?
[/QUOT
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dad4 said:
Your search search engine works the same as mine.

Tends to be just under 3 million. We are running about 20% over that.

Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card? I thought we had a serious discussion going here.
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Me too. How 'bout that r-squared that you've been avoiding like it was the Corona virus?
 
Kicker4Life said:
No....I understand why you assume that, but I’m looking for straight imperial data.
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Empirical? Try the CDC website.

I have not found a good way to include the problem of late diagnosis of long term diseases. It is important, but it isn't even clear which way it cuts.

Does late diagnosis mean we over-reacted, and scared people into needlessly delayed screenings?

Or does late diagnosis mean we under-reacted, and let the problem get so large it forced other things aside as we diverted resources to covid cases?

Or both?

BIZ- why r-squared? If you are correlating to an exponential growth rate, even a small change can be very significant. Even if it looks small, you have to actually run it forward in the model before you can dismiss it.

I've been paying more attention to p values in the CDC studies. Like when they say restaurants are linked to higher covid cases with p<0.01 .
 
dad4 said:
Empirical? Try the CDC website.

I have not found a good way to include the problem of late diagnosis of long term diseases. It is important, but it isn't even clear which way it cuts.

Does late diagnosis mean we over-reacted, and scared people into needlessly delayed screenings?

Or does late diagnosis mean we under-reacted, and let the problem get so large it forced other things aside as we diverted resources to covid cases?

Or both?

BIZ- why r-squared? If you are correlating to an exponential growth rate, even a small change can be very significant. Even if it looks small, you have to actually run it forward in the model before you can dismiss it.

I've been paying more attention to p values in the CDC studies. Like when they say restaurants are linked to higher covid cases with p<0.01 .
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Maybe do some qualitative analysis. But you're siloed so your hysteria is pretty easy to dismiss. Due process has been denied because of your ilks cowardice.
 
dad4 said:
Fair question. But you and I can't answer it.

The answer depends on things like " how much can you reduce transmission with a particular NPI?" and " what is the impact of an x percent reduction in transmission?".

Without a common view of those two questions, you can't begin to say how many deaths were inevitable. And we do not share a view on either.
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The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.
 
Grace T. said:
The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.
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What the lockdowners can't explain is that why a yr into it why does TX, FL, CA all have roughly the same numbers.

@dad4 likes to say why look at just 3 states? I say those 3 states have about 90 million people...enough to say CA screwed the pooch. They may as well have sent kids to school and had biz open. They got nothing from the closure covid related, but screwed kids, the poor, biz etc..all while ending up in the same place as TX/FL who did the opposite.

If 90 million people is not a large enough sample size what pray tell is???
 
Desert Hound said:
What the lockdowners can't explain is that why a yr into it why does TX, FL, CA all have roughly the same numbers.

@dad4 likes to say why look at just 3 states? I say those 3 states have about 90 million people...enough to say CA screwed the pooch. They may as well have sent kids to school and had biz open. They got nothing from the closure covid related, but screwed kids, the poor, biz etc..all while ending up in the same place as TX/FL who did the opposite.

If 90 million people is not a large enough sample size what pray tell is???
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Southern CA has a worse variant and more cramped housing. These two offset much, but not all, of the benefit of having better covid policies.

CA north of Sacramento, Oregon, and Washington do not have these problems and look much better.

There. Now you have an explanation. Are you going to think about it this time, or will you keep pretending the explanation doesn’t exist?
 
Grace T. said:
The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.
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That’s why Trump brought in Atlas. He is well published in the Public Policy Arena.
 
dad4 said:
Southern CA has a worse variant and more cramped housing. These two offset much, but not all, of the benefit of having better covid policies.

CA north of Sacramento, Oregon, and Washington do not have these problems and look much better.

There. Now you have an explanation. Are you going to think about it this time, or will you keep pretending the explanation doesn’t exist?
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What’s worse about the alleged variant?
 
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