In the EU, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal remain declining. Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland are now no longer declining but have a slightly rising trajectory. Czechia seems to have finally turned a page but is still awfully high. Pretty much everywhere else including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Eastern Europe are rising. In particular, the previously spared Norway, Finland and Estonia are hitting record highs, getting hit extremely heavily, hospital systems under strain. Seems like everyone in Europe is pretty much going to end up in the same place (possible exception Portugal, Ireland and the UK).
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Desert Hound
DA
Well it must be in person dining that is causing the rise right?
I just answered for someone else on these boards. Sorry. But you knew what the rote response was going to be. I just got here before he did.
Desert Hound
DA
Now the funny/disappointing thing is...we still have a bunch of people running around saying the US blew it. That is a non thinking and usually a partisan response.
As I look at the various western democracies, it seems that we are all roughly in the same boat. It is like the virus doesn't care about gov policy.
I was wondering what you'd talk about now that Texas and Florida have daily case rates twice and three times that of California.Well it must be in person dining that is causing the rise right?
I just answered for someone else on these boards. Sorry. But you knew what the rote response was going to be. I just got here before he did.
FL: 21 cases per 100k
TX: 16 cases per 100k
CA: 7 cases per 100k
You can't really talk about the EU surge in cases and ignore the UK variant and lack of vaccines. It's a bad combination. (Though I agree they should close their bars and restaurants )
Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....
What School Shutdowns Have Wrought
Though Covid-related restrictions are easing across the country, fewer than half of America’s students are back in school full-time, according to Burbio, a website tracking school reopenings. A look at the national map shows that the most populous state, California, is also the most locked down...www.city-journal.org
"...maybe..."
Desert Hound
DA
I made a screen shot on March 10 of the big 3 states. Lets see where they are cases per million and deaths per million a month from that date.
Further did the downward trends continue in cases or do we see a rise after TX opens up?
Or are you now saying 6 days later you can make the call?
Maybe?
Who else is responsible? We have a D governor, a D senate, a D assembly, D city councils and teachers union school boards.
California is running out of right wingers to blame. The last three are packing their bags for Texas.
Desert Hound
DA
"So when they told us to stay far apart from each other last spring in the name of public health, it was an enormous sacrifice, whether or not we understood it at the time. Because this was a trusting and law-abiding country, we obeyed that order. We barely grumbled about it. We assumed they knew best. "Stay six feet from each other." That was social distancing. It was the law and most of us followed that law.
But where did that law come from? Who did the scientific research that determines six feet was the safest distance apart from other people that you could be? Somebody should have asked that question last spring, but as far as we know, nobody did.
It turns out the research that formed the basis of that law came from a German hygenicist called Carl Flugge. It was Flugge who decided that six-foot separations were necessary to slow the spread of pathogens. The CDC went with Flugge's judgment. What the CDC didn't tell us was that Karl Flugge had been dead for nearly 100 years. His research on social distancing was published in the 19th century, before most Americans had electricity or indoor plumbing. So why is that research still guiding public health policy in this country in 2021? It's a good question, and experts don't seem to have a good answer.
Last year, one of the top aerosol scientists in Australia, a woman called Lidia Morawska, likened social distancing regulations to a cult ritual: "The dogma was born. Like any dogma, it's extremely difficult to change people's minds and change the dogmas." So it was all just faith-based, and it had massive consequences.
Millions of American schoolchildren have not been educated for a year because the CDC turned century-old German theories about tuberculosis into a kind of modern, state-enforced religious faith. It's enough to make you feel sick.
Yes, our authorities are just that mediocre. But the most infuriating part of it all is not that they were wrong, but that they won't admit they were wrong and apologize for it. Dr. Anthony Fauci spent much of last year pretending "six feet apart" was some kind of unquestioned, universally recognized physics principle, like gravity or photosynthesis."
"The science was settled, we were told.
Or at least, was settled until last week, when the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases found that the law of six feet of social distancing isn't actually real. It's not a law. It was a guess, and it's wrong. Researchers looked at coronavirus case rates in Massachusetts school districts that required six feet of social distancing and compared those with school districts that required only three feet of social distancing (yes, there were some). Researchers found there was no statistically significant difference in coronavirus cases between the two. That wasn't just true for students; it was also true for adult staff members. The study also controlled for coronavirus rates in the surrounding communities. It was not shoddy research. It was real. Here's the conclusion:
"Lower physical distancing policies can be adopted in school settings with masking mandates without negatively impacting student or staff safety."
But where did that law come from? Who did the scientific research that determines six feet was the safest distance apart from other people that you could be? Somebody should have asked that question last spring, but as far as we know, nobody did.
It turns out the research that formed the basis of that law came from a German hygenicist called Carl Flugge. It was Flugge who decided that six-foot separations were necessary to slow the spread of pathogens. The CDC went with Flugge's judgment. What the CDC didn't tell us was that Karl Flugge had been dead for nearly 100 years. His research on social distancing was published in the 19th century, before most Americans had electricity or indoor plumbing. So why is that research still guiding public health policy in this country in 2021? It's a good question, and experts don't seem to have a good answer.
Last year, one of the top aerosol scientists in Australia, a woman called Lidia Morawska, likened social distancing regulations to a cult ritual: "The dogma was born. Like any dogma, it's extremely difficult to change people's minds and change the dogmas." So it was all just faith-based, and it had massive consequences.
Millions of American schoolchildren have not been educated for a year because the CDC turned century-old German theories about tuberculosis into a kind of modern, state-enforced religious faith. It's enough to make you feel sick.
Yes, our authorities are just that mediocre. But the most infuriating part of it all is not that they were wrong, but that they won't admit they were wrong and apologize for it. Dr. Anthony Fauci spent much of last year pretending "six feet apart" was some kind of unquestioned, universally recognized physics principle, like gravity or photosynthesis."
"The science was settled, we were told.
Or at least, was settled until last week, when the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases found that the law of six feet of social distancing isn't actually real. It's not a law. It was a guess, and it's wrong. Researchers looked at coronavirus case rates in Massachusetts school districts that required six feet of social distancing and compared those with school districts that required only three feet of social distancing (yes, there were some). Researchers found there was no statistically significant difference in coronavirus cases between the two. That wasn't just true for students; it was also true for adult staff members. The study also controlled for coronavirus rates in the surrounding communities. It was not shoddy research. It was real. Here's the conclusion:
"Lower physical distancing policies can be adopted in school settings with masking mandates without negatively impacting student or staff safety."
Bruddah IZ
DA
What Irony that our schools shutdown and still are when it is so obvious that Fauci et al were grossly wrong!Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....
What School Shutdowns Have Wrought
Though Covid-related restrictions are easing across the country, fewer than half of America’s students are back in school full-time, according to Burbio, a website tracking school reopenings. A look at the national map shows that the most populous state, California, is also the most locked down...
Me? I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3. You run stats with N= 10,000. The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.
You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something. And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you. ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)
Desert Hound
DA
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is clear and consistent in its social distancing recommendation: To reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus, people should remain at least six feet away from others who are not in their households. The guideline holds whether you are eating in a restaurant, lifting weights at a gym or learning long division in a fourth-grade classroom.
The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the C.D.C. was reviewing the matter.
The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. "It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air," said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University."
The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the C.D.C. was reviewing the matter.
The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. "It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air," said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University."
Bruddah IZ
DA
The thing that your math doesn't account for. Deaths.
Desert Hound
DA
I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.
I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.
So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?
Bruddah IZ
DA
How's that R-squared for Deaths and cases coming along?
Not stopping Newsome from trying to blame the Recall effort on Right Wing Trump supporters. He’s so ignorant he can’t believe he’s lost his own base with his hypocrisy.
I know just as more anti Trump Democrats that have signed the recall than I know actual Trump supporters.
Bruddah IZ
DA
The problem with mask is that they aren't regulated for their intended effect. People make their own mask and the government allows that freedom, whether they know those mask stop the spread of infectious disease or not. So are we really surprised that case numbers are high given that most mask wouldn't and obviously haven't stopped infection. And if they are "high" case numbers via the PCR test, what past pandemics do we have to compare those alleged high case counts to? Dad4 runs his case numbers without precedence and completely ignores empirical evidence for all past respiratory virus deaths. All public COVID policy implementation is based on the "if we just save one life" narrative. Spock, the heretic, would totally disagree!!
Bruddah IZ
DA
Anybody remember what the road to hell is paved with??
whatithink
GOLD
Later tonight it'll be shamrocks ... all going to plan, I won't remember tomorrow, and hell will be the least of my (head's) worries
So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?
Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.
I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining. I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.
SCC may be starting to tick back up. Cases were up yesterday and today. Should have been down because of the weekend. We will know for sure in a week or two.
We opened indoor dining 2 weeks ago, in case you were wondering.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Yawn. Let us know when the bodies start piling up in the streets from the one size fits all policies.