Bad News Thread

[Bruddah IZ]

Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....

What School Shutdowns Have Wrought

Though Covid-related restrictions are easing across the country, fewer than half of America’s students are back in school full-time, according to Burbio, a website tracking school reopenings. A look at the national map shows that the most populous state, California, is also the most locked down...

www.city-journal.org

What Irony that our schools shutdown and still are when it is so obvious that Fauci et al were grossly wrong!

 

[dad4]

I made a screen shot on March 10 of the big 3 states. Lets see where they are cases per million and deaths per million a month from that date.

Further did the downward trends continue in cases or do we see a rise after TX opens up?

Or are you now saying 6 days later you can make the call?

Me? I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3. You run stats with N= 10,000. The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.

You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something. And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you. ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)

 

[Desert Hound]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is clear and consistent in its social distancing recommendation: To reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus, people should remain at least six feet away from others who are not in their households. The guideline holds whether you are eating in a restaurant, lifting weights at a gym or learning long division in a fourth-grade classroom.
The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the C.D.C. was reviewing the matter.
The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. "It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air," said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University."

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I was wondering what you'd talk about now that Texas and Florida have daily case rates twice and three times that of California.

The thing that your math doesn't account for. Deaths.

 

[Desert Hound]

Me? I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3. You run stats with N= 10,000. The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.

You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something. And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you. ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)

I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.

I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.

So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Me? I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3. You run stats with N= 10,000. The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.

You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something. And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you. ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)

How's that R-squared for Deaths and cases coming along?

 

[Kicker4Life]

Maybe?

Who else is responsible? We have a D governor, a D senate, a D assembly, D city councils and teachers union school boards.

California is running out of right wingers to blame. The last three are packing their bags for Texas.

Not stopping Newsome from trying to blame the Recall effort on Right Wing Trump supporters. He’s so ignorant he can’t believe he’s lost his own base with his hypocrisy.

I know just as more anti Trump Democrats that have signed the recall than I know actual Trump supporters.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.

I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.

So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?

The problem with mask is that they aren't regulated for their intended effect. People make their own mask and the government allows that freedom, whether they know those mask stop the spread of infectious disease or not. So are we really surprised that case numbers are high given that most mask wouldn't and obviously haven't stopped infection. And if they are "high" case numbers via the PCR test, what past pandemics do we have to compare those alleged high case counts to? Dad4 runs his case numbers without precedence and completely ignores empirical evidence for all past respiratory virus deaths. All public COVID policy implementation is based on the "if we just save one life" narrative. Spock, the heretic, would totally disagree!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Anybody remember what the road to hell is paved with??

 

[whatithink]

Anybody remember what the road to hell is paved with??

Later tonight it'll be shamrocks ... all going to plan, I won't remember tomorrow, and hell will be the least of my (head's) worries

 

[dad4]

I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.

I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.

So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?

So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?

Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.

I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining. I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.

SCC may be starting to tick back up. Cases were up yesterday and today. Should have been down because of the weekend. We will know for sure in a week or two.

We opened indoor dining 2 weeks ago, in case you were wondering.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining. I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.

Yawn. Let us know when the bodies start piling up in the streets from the one size fits all policies.

 

[Grace T.]

So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?

Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.

I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining. I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.

SCC may be starting to tick back up. Cases were up yesterday and today. Should have been down because of the weekend. We will know for sure in a week or two.

We opened indoor dining 2 weeks ago, in case you were wondering.

If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.

 

[dad4]

If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.

Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.

Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed. You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections. Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.

Does that make them at risk? They made it through the winter and went into decline at something below 19%. For them, with their behavior, the base virus had an effective R < 1.23. 60% reduction in transmission or so.

Now they have close to 40%, and climbing. Soon they’ll be at 50%. (when 38% are vaccinated.)

Even for a variant with R0=5, that 60% reduction means effective R=2. And herd immunity at 50%, where they will be in not too long.

But, with current behavior, I don’t think Oregon sees a significant spike from any variant which is vulnerable to the vaccine.

The Dakotas are the opposite. They ran their seroprevalence right up to 60% or so. effective R = 2.5. Only a 17% reduction from behavior.

Give them a variant with R0=5, and their behavior only cuts it down to effective R= 4.16. Without that behavior reduction, they end up needing a much higher level for herd immunity. 1- 1/R = .76. Will happen around when they hit 40% vaccinated. Almost the same.

If I did the math right, If you’ve gone through an R0=3 spike, you seem to be vulnerable to an R0=5 variant up until you have 40% or so vaccinated. It doesn’t matter whether you infected your way through the spike or solved it with behavior.

Theoretically, the Dakotas could avoid a variant spike entirely by adopting different behavior for the next 2 months. That won’t happen. The Dakotas will Dakota.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.

I was thinking the same thing. The states/regions that have done reasonably well, CO, WA, OR, Bay Area of CA are liable to see a bump up with the more infectious variant becoming dominant.

 

[Grace T.]

Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.

Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed. You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections. Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.

Does that make them at risk? They made it through the winter and went into decline at something below 19%. For them, with their behavior, the base virus had an effective R < 1.23. 60% reduction in transmission or so.

Now they have close to 40%, and climbing. Soon they’ll be at 50%. (when 38% are vaccinated.)

Even for a variant with R0=5, that 60% reduction means effective R=2. And herd immunity at 50%, where they will be in not too long.

But, with current behavior, I don’t think Oregon sees a significant spike from any variant which is vulnerable to the vaccine.

The Dakotas are the opposite. They ran their seroprevalence right up to 60% or so. effective R = 2.5. Only a 17% reduction from behavior.

Give them a variant with R0=5, and their behavior only cuts it down to effective R= 4.16. Without that behavior reduction, they end up needing a much higher level for herd immunity. 1- 1/R = .76. Will happen around when they hit 40% vaccinated. Almost the same.

If I did the math right, If you’ve gone through an R0=3 spike, you seem to be vulnerable to an R0=5 variant up until you have 40% or so vaccinated. It doesn’t matter whether you infected your way through the spike or solved it with behavior.

Theoretically, the Dakotas could avoid a variant spike entirely by adopting different behavior for the next 2 months. That won’t happen. The Dakotas will Dakota.

Math is solid but europe seems to disagree. Finland and Norway made it through the winter too...now look at them. Czechia was praised for being the most conscientious in the world...they are one of the few places in the west that the hospital system actually did come close to collapse and had a third wave.

 

[Grace T.]

I was thinking the same thing. The states/regions that have done reasonably well, CO, WA, OR, Bay Area of CA are liable to see a bump up with the more infectious variant becoming dominant.

Question is how quickly the vaccines ramp up. As dad points out part of the problem is their vaccines are a ss. The seroprevalence count in Los Angeles raw in January was at 45%. Adjusted for self selection they adjusted down to just under 41%. With vaccination and new infections we should be right in the 50% ballpark.

 

[Grace T.]

Here’s another thing to factor in. All South America right now is rising and Peru (which has been at the brink of economic collapse due to some of the harshest lockdowns in the world) is hitting new record highs. So it’s happening there too

Mexico has plateaued. If it turns upward it may not affect SoCal and az too much due to the high seroprevalence but Texas might very well get hit again.If Mexico follows the same pattern as last year the border crisis could well merge into a covid crisis in the next month.

 

[dad4]

Math is solid but europe seems to disagree. Finland and Norway made it through the winter too...now look at them. Czechia was praised for being the most conscientious in the world...they are one of the few places in the west that the hospital system actually did come close to collapse and had a third wave.

Finland hasn't vaccinated 21% of their pop, and won't hit 40% for a while.

If Oregon were at 5% vaccinated, they'd be facing a bump, too.

The big weakness is the assumption that Oregon doesn't change behavior. If they start acting like SD, they're in trouble.

 

[dad4]

Question is how quickly the vaccines ramp up. As dad points out part of the problem is their vaccines are a ss. The seroprevalence count in Los Angeles raw in January was at 45%. Adjusted for self selection they adjusted down to just under 41%. With vaccination and new infections we should be right in the 50% ballpark.

Where do you get 50%?

Just pull the number out of thin air, or is there actual analysis behind it?

 

[Grace T.]

Where do you get 50%?

Just pull the number out of thin air, or is there actual analysis behind it?

It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%