Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
Goalpost moved. You were the one complaining about any indoor dining. Oregonians are surely at least as conscientious as the Germans.
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I still believe that indoor dining and indoor dinner parties spread covid. The CDC agrees. Almost all epidemiologists agree. This is not a controversial opinion.

I am amused that you say “moving the goalpost” when I talk about data gathering techniques. Data gathering is a prerequisite for analysis. If you want to think, you need something to think about.

Do I really need to clarify that a restaurant with very few customers spreads less covid than a restaurant that is full?
 
dad4 said:
So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters? Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US? Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.

I agree it is multifactoral. But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”. Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.

It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.
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So in summary, if the housing policy was in place long before the Covid policy was developed, one could conclude that it’s not the housing policy at fault, but the Covid policy.

Therefore a one size fits all Covid Policy is flawed for various reasons, one being the housing situation.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Is it really "housing policy" that creates it? Or, do immigrants flow in from countries where our housing policy and opportunities to make a living are so great they will leave their homes for the opportunity to experience our housing policy. I'd say it's our insatiable desire for cheap labor and relatively open borders that drive it. All the housing policy in the world won't solve that.
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It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration. We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for. As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.

”Kick them all out” would work. “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.

”Pack them like sardines” does not work. Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines. And it made us sick.
 
Kicker4Life said:
So in summary, if the housing policy was in place long before the Covid policy was developed, one could conclude that it’s not the housing policy at fault, but the Covid policy.

Therefore a one size fits all Covid Policy is flawed for various reasons, one being the housing situation.
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That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt. And it’s a good argument.

It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.
 
Grace T. said:
The herd immunity numbers will be lower for a less contagious version of the virus than for a stronger variant. It’s what we may be seeing in New York City right now. There are other possibilities that are worse including: immunity fades over time and vast numbers get reinfected (not much evidence for that right now) or the variant has mutated away from prior immunity (in which case vaccine or no we are all f’d).
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What makes the variant stronger?
 
dad4 said:
I still believe that indoor dining and indoor dinner parties spread covid. The CDC agrees. Almost all epidemiologists agree. This is not a controversial opinion.

I am amused that you say “moving the goalpost” when I talk about data gathering techniques. Data gathering is a prerequisite for analysis. If you want to think, you need something to think about.

Do I really need to clarify that a restaurant with very few customers spreads less covid than a restaurant that is full?
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So in other words you’d be in favor of indoor dining just so long as not that many people use it. Why then grouse about California opening up 25%? Too high?
 
dad4 said:
That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt. And it’s a good argument.

It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.
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Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?
 
dad4 said:
It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.
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If you're assuming that COVID policies are good. And they're not. Mask are not regulated to achieve the intended effect. Not surprising that cases are high when faulty mask are on the market....COSTCO!! Crowds have always been potential breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. In my 3 years on the U.S.S. Midway we never experienced any such diseases that jeopardized our mission or inhibited daily operations. Awful housing policy? Whatever, show me the correlation between corpse and cases. Otherwise your math isn't worth the hysteria.
 
Grace T. said:
Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?
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The Dakotas infected over half their population. Yes. They were too loose.

It’s not like they were busy saving their economy. They wouldn’t even wear masks. They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.

LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies. Look at the population density. ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles. LA is literally 100 times as dense.
 
dad4 said:
It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration. We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for. As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.

”Kick them all out” would work. “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.

”Pack them like sardines” does not work. Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines. And it made us sick.
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I agree with some of what you said, but these statements sound naive.

"We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for."

"Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines."

This implies that those living in these conditions would "spread out" if they could. I believe the reality is that they will live with as many as the house can handle so that as many as possible have the opportunity to make a better life. They very likely lived in such close quarters in their home country. Also, I can't imagine we'd have any more success enforcing occupancy limits - house-to-house - than we do keeping undocumented immigrants from making it into the country.
 
dad4 said:
The Dakotas infected over half their population. Yes. They were too loose.

It’s not like they were busy saving their economy. They wouldn’t even wear masks. They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.

LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies. Look at the population density. ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles. LA is literally 100 times as dense.
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But yet, over time, pretty much everywhere in Europe is going to land within 10% of each other....the only determining factor maybe being how quickly the vaccine is rolled out in certain countries....some exceptions being (like in Oregon or Vermont in the US) maybe Portugal or Ireland (which still took a substantial hit, like Canada)....if they'd had the vaccine 3 months earlier Finland and Norway would have been in those exceptions too.
 
dad4 said:
That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt. And it’s a good argument.

It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.
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Where in LA county do you think there is space to build a million homes?
 
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dad4 said:
The Dakotas infected over half their population. Yes. They were too loose.

It’s not like they were busy saving their economy. They wouldn’t even wear masks. They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.

LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies. Look at the population density. ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles. LA is literally 100 times as dense.
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So the bodies should be stacking up.

Less than 1% of America’s population lives in long-term-care facilities, but as of March 4, 2021, this tiny fraction of the country accounts for 34% of US COVID-19 deaths.

24% for California.


covidtracking.com

The Long-Term Care COVID Tracker

To date, the Long-Term Care COVID Tracker is the most comprehensive dataset about COVID-19 in US long-term care facilities.
covidtracking.com covidtracking.com
 
dad4 said:
It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration. We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for. As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.

”Kick them all out” would work. “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.

”Pack them like sardines” does not work. Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines. And it made us sick.
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Sardines in a can? Try living on an Aircraft carrier for 6 months at a time. No such hysteria Dad4. Lots of historical evidence to refute the canned life style causes spread. Sardines are actually good for you. Especially the COSTCO pack in olive oil. Fry them up with some white onions, add shoyu and vinegar (also good for you) and serve on a bed of brown rice. Ono-licious. Stinks up the house though. But that's where my whole house COVID filtration system serves an unintended purpose.
 
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