Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%

Ps. If seroprevalence in Los Angeles really was at 40 ish % in January it has to be near 50% by now with vaccination and new cases.

New York City is the test case. They were at close to 30% after the first wave. They didn’t have a major second wave but had to have added at least 20% by now and with vaccinations higher. If there’s a substantial rise in New York City either so seroprevalence numbers are wrong or something else is afoot...otherwise what we’d expect to see is worse case a plateau or very stubborn decline

 

[dad4]

It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%

That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.

Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?

Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence. Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?

 

[Grace T.]

That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.

Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?

Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence. Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?

Because behavior doesn’t seem to have much impact. I thought Sweden was suppose to be the big bad state that went for herd immunity and Norway and Finland were the good guys that were careful? At least that was the narrative. I agree infrastructure plus demographics and climate have a bigger impact that can drive the number different. I agree that stronger variants can drive that threshold higher and we might still see a rise in Spain or Belgium. However if half the brush is gone, it makes it much harder for a fire to take off which is why Belgium has plateaued but unlike neighbors France Germany or Netherlands is not accelerating yet...it takes longer to get the fire started...and in the us as you and I predicted we are thus in a vaccine race against a third wave. Where you and I disagree is on the degree of impact behavior has: all Europe is pretty much going to end in the same place as is all South America

 

[dad4]

Because behavior doesn’t seem to have much impact. I thought Sweden was suppose to be the big bad state that went for herd immunity and Norway and Finland were the good guys that were careful? At least that was the narrative. I agree infrastructure plus demographics and climate have a bigger impact that can drive the number different. I agree that stronger variants can drive that threshold higher and we might still see a rise in Spain or Belgium. However if half the brush is gone, it makes it much harder for a fire to take off which is why Belgium has plateaued but unlike neighbors France Germany or Netherlands is not accelerating yet...it takes longer to get the fire started...and in the us as you and I predicted we are thus in a vaccine race against a third wave. Where you and I disagree is on the degree of impact behavior has: all Europe is pretty much going to end in the same place as is all South America

You can argue how much is infrastructure and how much is behavior, but Oregon has the same variant and about a third the case rate of the Dakotas. It seems obvious that something has an impact.

 

[crush]

Bad News Yesterday=Good News Today

Coronavirus: New cases and hospitalizations down more than 90% from highs in Orange County as of March 17

 

[Grace T.]

You can argue how much is infrastructure and how much is behavior, but Oregon has the same variant and about a third the case rate of the Dakotas. It seems obvious that something has an impact.

You are ignoring the third factor which is climate and weather. There’s a fourth too which is serendipity.

Los Angeles did everything you wanted them too yet got a bad result for the worst costs in the nation. Finland and Norway pretty much escaped everything until now. Czechia did everything right and the media fawned all over them and they are the worst in Europe. Everywhere in Europe will end the same regardless of government policy. If the distinguishing factor is do “everything right” plus don’t get a variant plus don’t have your government screw up vaccines and maybe you’ll avoid a bad outcome, well then 1/3 of your great formula is purely dependent on luck.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is clear and consistent in its social distancing recommendation: To reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus, people should remain at least six feet away from others who are not in their households. The guideline holds whether you are eating in a restaurant, lifting weights at a gym or learning long division in a fourth-grade classroom.
The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the C.D.C. was reviewing the matter.
The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. "It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air," said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University."

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.

Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed. You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections. Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.

Does that make them at risk? They made it through the winter and went into decline at something below 19%. For them, with their behavior, the base virus had an effective R < 1.23. 60% reduction in transmission or so.

Now they have close to 40%, and climbing. Soon they’ll be at 50%. (when 38% are vaccinated.)

Even for a variant with R0=5, that 60% reduction means effective R=2. And herd immunity at 50%, where they will be in not too long.

But, with current behavior, I don’t think Oregon sees a significant spike from any variant which is vulnerable to the vaccine.

The Dakotas are the opposite. They ran their seroprevalence right up to 60% or so. effective R = 2.5. Only a 17% reduction from behavior.

Give them a variant with R0=5, and their behavior only cuts it down to effective R= 4.16. Without that behavior reduction, they end up needing a much higher level for herd immunity. 1- 1/R = .76. Will happen around when they hit 40% vaccinated. Almost the same.

If I did the math right, If you’ve gone through an R0=3 spike, you seem to be vulnerable to an R0=5 variant up until you have 40% or so vaccinated. It doesn’t matter whether you infected your way through the spike or solved it with behavior.

Theoretically, the Dakotas could avoid a variant spike entirely by adopting different behavior for the next 2 months. That won’t happen. The Dakotas will Dakota.

And the R-squared, deaths vs. cases?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Bad News Yesterday=Good News Today

Coronavirus: New cases and hospitalizations down more than 90% from highs in Orange County as of March 17

Same downward trend in Oregon

 

[Grace T.]

Same downward trend in Oregon

Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.

Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?

Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence. Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?

Why are you assuming that a stronger variant will drive you even higher?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.

I'm predicting case numbers up whether asymp or not. Deaths will not significantly correlate. The COVID tracking site is no longer posting recovery numbers.

 

[dad4]

You are ignoring the third factor which is climate and weather. There’s a fourth too which is serendipity.

Los Angeles did everything you wanted them too yet got a bad result for the worst costs in the nation. Finland and Norway pretty much escaped everything until now. Czechia did everything right and the media fawned all over them and they are the worst in Europe. Everywhere in Europe will end the same regardless of government policy. If the distinguishing factor is do “everything right” plus don’t get a variant plus don’t have your government screw up vaccines and maybe you’ll avoid a bad outcome, well then 1/3 of your great formula is purely dependent on luck.

So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters? Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US? Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.

I agree it is multifactoral. But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”. Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.

It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.

 

[Grace T.]

Why are you assuming that a stronger variant will drive you even higher?

The herd immunity numbers will be lower for a less contagious version of the virus than for a stronger variant. It’s what we may be seeing in New York City right now. There are other possibilities that are worse including: immunity fades over time and vast numbers get reinfected (not much evidence for that right now) or the variant has mutated away from prior immunity (in which case vaccine or no we are all f’d).

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Interesting survey on perceptions by party.

How misinformation is distorting COVID policies and behaviors

Jonathan Rothwell and Sonal Desai share new survey data demonstrating the relationship between misinformation, political bias, and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.brookings.edu

 

[dad4]

Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.

Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?

 

[Grace T.]

So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters? Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US? Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.

I agree it is multifactoral. But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”. Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.

It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.

I think in the case of Canada and Vermont the issue there is few and no cities. If your covid policies are dependent on housing then since we can’t turn on a dime it’s not really covid policy. You could just as easily say the cities are f’d either way so why do anything.

 

[Grace T.]

Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?

Goalpost moved. You were the one complaining about any indoor dining. Oregonians are surely at least as conscientious as the Germans.

 

[Grace T.]

So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters? Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US? Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.

I agree it is multifactoral. But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”. Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.

It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.

Ps Canada is plateaued at about 3000 cases per day right now.

 

[watfly]

So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?

Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.

Yes, of course we are. That's our point, cumulative is all that matters at the end of the day. Would you give your students a grade or judge their overall results based on only one test? or would you look at their cumulative work and the results of all their tests?

You can slice and dice time periods to your hearts content in an attempt to prove your point, but its only the overall results that matter. Our whole point is that while some lockdown policies may have a temporary effect, over the long term the results are going to be virtually the same because Covid will always find its path. I think many of us believe, based on the evidence, that restrictions only drag the pandemic out. The only good reason for restrictions is to prevent spikes that overwhelm our hospitals. Whereas, the economic and social impacts of restrictions are dramatic.

Of course, Covid is only a part of overall public health policy and there are many other impacts to consider...not that I'm going to convince you that we should consider costs/benefits. Although, at least you've now become convinced, better late than never, that kids should be back in school.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.

Is it really "housing policy" that creates it? Or, do immigrants flow in from countries where our housing policy and opportunities to make a living are so great they will leave their homes for the opportunity to experience our housing policy. I'd say it's our insatiable desire for cheap labor and relatively open borders that drive it. All the housing policy in the world won't solve that.