Bad News Thread

[dad4]

So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing. Incredible. Mind officially blown.

p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like. What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool". The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.

I know you don't like it. But it is what the models say.

A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1.

Most research shows that masks provide at least a 70% reduction, especially if you also close indoor dining.

However, if you only have 85% compliance, you still have an outbreak, because you still get R>1.0.

That seems to be what happened both here and later in Europe. At least 15% of people skipped masks and kept gathering, and that was enough to let covid keep growing.

You can learn from it, or not.

But ignoring it doesn't make it not true. Non compliance with masks and gatherings is a major factor in covid spread.

Yo, Jimbo

(As I said, I don't like insults. The whole Magoo thing is childish and annoying. Espola isn't blind or unaware of the world around him. You just don't like what he says. It no more thoughtful than EOTL's "Grace Karen" nonsense.)

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Nope. I was measuring transmission, not fatalities. Nothing in my math assumed any fatality rate at all. (high or low)

Yes. That was my point. Despite all the transmission, the death rate is as predictable as its always been. What's your r-squared for COVID cases vs. deaths?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I know you don't like it. But it is what the models say.

The models????? You mean the models that took past PCR test in to account from SARs-1? Lol!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It's a vaccine. Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.

Why would you call it a vaccine when it's just M-RNA?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread. Don't ya think?

Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land. It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been approved by the FDA.

They granted Emergency Use Authorization to provide liability protection to Big Pharma.

 

[espola]

Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread. Don't ya think?

Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land. It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been approved by the FDA.

It's a vaccine because of the mechanism by which it works - strengthening the body's natural response to invaders. It doesn't stop the invaders from getting in, and no vaccine ever developed is 100% effective.

What is missing from the doctor's bag is a cure - something that acts like penicillin used to do when it was first discovered.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It's a vaccine because of the mechanism by which it works - strengthening the body's natural response to invaders. It doesn't stop the invaders from getting in, and no vaccine ever developed is 100% effective.

What is missing from the doctor's bag is a cure - something that acts like penicillin used to do when it was first discovered.

And that mechanism is what?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Funny how government interventions in financial markets are just like government interventions in healthcare/health insurance. Both industries have been bailed out AND indemnified in the last 20 years over fake crisis.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I know you don't like it. But it is what the models say.

A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1.

Most research shows that masks provide at least a 70% reduction, especially if you also close indoor dining.

However, if you only have 85% compliance, you still have an outbreak, because you still get R>1.0.

That seems to be what happened both here and later in Europe. At least 15% of people skipped masks and kept gathering, and that was enough to let covid keep growing.

You can learn from it, or not.

But ignoring it doesn't make it not true. Non compliance with masks and gatherings is a major factor in covid spread.

Yo, Jimbo

(As I said, I don't like insults. The whole Magoo thing is childish and annoying. Espola isn't blind or unaware of the world around him. You just don't like what he says. It no more thoughtful than EOTL's "Grace Karen" nonsense.)

January 28th, 2021

Awesome charts for you today.

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again.

The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment.

In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):

 

[dad4]

And that mechanism is what?

You can look up the mechanism.

I believe the adenovirus injects the RNA into the cell, the RNA is translated into spike proteins, which are carried to the cell membrane for display.

At that point, the cell is identified and killed by the immune system, for the crime of displaying a weird protein. More importantly, the immune system begins to look out for more spike proteins.

Sounds like a vaccine to me. You wanted them to grow virus in eggs and boil it into submission?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You can look up the mechanism.

I believe the adenovirus injects the RNA into the cell, the RNA is translated into spike proteins, which are carried to the cell membrane for display.

At that point, the cell is identified and killed by the immune system, for the crime of displaying a weird protein. More importantly, the immune system begins to look out for more spike proteins.

Sounds like a vaccine to me. You wanted them to grow virus in eggs and boil it into submission?

Why not?? How do you think our species made it this far?

 

[Grace T.]

I know you don't like it. But it is what the models say.

A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1.

Most research shows that masks provide at least a 70% reduction, especially if you also close indoor dining.

However, if you only have 85% compliance, you still have an outbreak, because you still get R>1.0.

That seems to be what happened both here and later in Europe. At least 15% of people skipped masks and kept gathering, and that was enough to let covid keep growing.

You can learn from it, or not.

But ignoring it doesn't make it not true. Non compliance with masks and gatherings is a major factor in covid spread.

Yo, Jimbo

(As I said, I don't like insults. The whole Magoo thing is childish and annoying. Espola isn't blind or unaware of the world around him. You just don't like what he says. It no more thoughtful than EOTL's "Grace Karen" nonsense.)

1. I object to the confluence of masks and gatherings. I agree social distancing helps to stop the spread of the virus. But if you go over to grandma with COVID and hang out with her for 3 hours at Christmas (like my church members did), sorry you are going to give grandma COVID.
2. Again, the model assumes the ideal. If it's not working in the real world, the model is clearly broken. I've given you additional explanations for why masks aren't work beyond people just refusing including: wearing them too long they get wet, improper usage (my god, the videos this week of people fumbling with them or touching them), washing them, reusing dirty ones, using bad ones (like bandanas or gaiters).
3. The Grace Karen thing is idiotic as an insult. Again, a Karen was originally applied to a white person (which I am not) complaining about a person of color (which I am). The problem with that insult isn't that it's an insult, but a bad one. The Karen thing has also been played out as it basically now refers to any woman that's a complainer.
4. Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever. Unfortunately, I did not come up with it. But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.
5. It's why Buzz is perfect for you. First, it's not a very severe insult....everyone loves Buzz....in fact he was my eldest's favorite Disney character. But he is also very proud, thinks he's very heroic, is very math and science oriented (that "infinity" thing) and doesn't realize he's a toy despite everyone telling him and all the evidence around him. It's perfect!

 

[espola]

1. I object to the confluence of masks and gatherings. I agree social distancing helps to stop the spread of the virus. But if you go over to grandma with COVID and hang out with her for 3 hours at Christmas (like my church members did), sorry you are going to give grandma COVID.
2. Again, the model assumes the ideal. If it's not working in the real world, the model is clearly broken. I've given you additional explanations for why masks aren't work beyond people just refusing including: wearing them too long they get wet, improper usage (my god, the videos this week of people fumbling with them or touching them), washing them, reusing dirty ones, using bad ones (like bandanas or gaiters).
3. The Grace Karen thing is idiotic as an insult. Again, a Karen was originally applied to a white person (which I am not) complaining about a person of color (which I am). The problem with that insult isn't that it's an insult, but a bad one. The Karen thing has also been played out as it basically now refers to any woman that's a complainer.
4. Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever. Unfortunately, I did not come up with it. But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.
5. It's why Buzz is perfect for you. First, it's not a very severe insult....everyone loves Buzz....in fact he was my eldest's favorite Disney character. But he is also very proud, thinks he's very heroic, is very math and science oriented (that "infinity" thing) and doesn't realize he's a toy despite everyone telling him and all the evidence around him. It's perfect!

"And in recent months, the meme has evolved into something new: Coronavirus Karen. This particular form of Karen refuses to wear a face covering in shops, won't stick to quarantine, and thinks the whole pandemic thing is overblown. "

What exactly is a 'Karen' and where did the meme come from?

To many the Karen meme - and its male equivalent Ken - sums up a specific type of white privilege.

www.bbc.com

There is a good video embedded in that article with a lot of Grace Karens speaking.

 

[N00B]

Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever. Unfortunately, I did not come up with it. But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.

I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.

He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.

 

[crush]

Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear. You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy. Hi Buzz!

 

[crush]

"I have zero background in vaccines"

No shit?

EOTL is back as Espola.

 

[crush]

It's a vaccine. Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.

Long Game, is that you?

 

[crush]

I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.

He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.

This is Espola. "It's a dark day today." Always gloom and doom with Mr Magoo. I dont get him. i told him almost three years ago soccer was going to get flipped on its head and he told me I was coo coo.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

11/24/20

Remember when the CDC credited masks for bringing down "cases" in Arizona?

When they say ridiculous things like this, they give the green light to people who want to blame their neighbors for rises in cases. "Why, since we know masks work, the rise in cases must be because of you stupid anti-science people who refuse to wear them!"

Even though mask compliance is as high as ever, these "pro-science" people just know it can't be, because they just know masks at the very least go a long way toward solving the problem.

Well, anyway, how about we check out Arizona's curve now?

Well, how about that.

Could it be that masks didn't bring the curve down after all? That these curves seem to do more or less the same thing no matter what?

Right now one blue state after another that supposedly "followed the science," is seeing a rise in "cases." And all their people can do is blame their neighbors. Because, don't you know, the "science" works! So if the "science" isn't working, that means someone somewhere must not be sciencing.

 

[espola]

I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.

He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.

Did you watch the mimosa appendix? (Be sure to view and like it on youtube so Logan gets his stats)

 

[crush]

Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'

Never!!! I dont care what Dr F or T says. My wife and I are 100% a, "No."