Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
Europe tried the higher intrusion methods of controlling disease. It didn't work. The EU is a ss.

I agree that the bureaucracies came under enormous pressure to "do something" so they did things which in the end may have only helped a little, and at a tremendous cost. That's what happens when people panic. Vaccine passports are different. We're now moving into the phase of how can we force everyone to vaccinate (possibly repeatedly vaccinate) given that they can't use force so long as the emergency use label is on the thing...where it gets ugly is when they turn to kids and try to force it, but the ability to have that fight is still a bit aways, hence this more soft power projection.
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No need for force to get kids to take it. Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.

That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.

It isn't a "just do something" kind of situation.

We have a technology that reduces transmission by over 70%. It is about as difficult to use as glasses. And we still have high level officials fighting it.

If everyone would help, R would be below 1.
Base transmission would be

R = 3*(1-0.7) =0.9.

Close, but still under 1.0

Now look at what happens if 1/6 of the country refuses to help. Base transmission becomes

R = 3*(1-(5/6)*0.7) = 1.25

Now we are into exponential growth. And the only difference is 1/6 of the population thinks they should not have to follow the rules.
 
dad4 said:
No need for force to get kids to take it. Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.

That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.

It isn't a "just do something" kind of situation.

We have a technology that reduces transmission by over 70%. It is about as difficult to use as glasses. And we still have high level officials fighting it.

If everyone would help, R would be below 1.
Base transmission would be

R = 3*(1-0.7) =0.9.

Close, but still under 1.0

Now look at what happens if 1/6 of the country refuses to help. Base transmission becomes

R = 3*(1-(5/6)*0.7) = 1.25

Now we are into exponential growth. And the only difference is 1/6 of the population thinks they should not have to follow the rules.
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Dr F said 95% effectiveness Dr Dad 4. Why on God's green earth would I inject a 5% chance of something terrible happening to me or my loved one?
 
crush said:
Dr F said 95% effectiveness Dr Dad 4. Why on God's green earth would I inject a 5% chance of something terrible happening to me or my loved one?
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I was saying masks, not vaccines. Masks reduce transmission by 70-79%, depending on the study.

We could have killed this thing last summer if the left hadn't rioted and the right had simply worn their masks.

But, as I said, a minority refusing to follow rules is enough to impose a disease on the rest of us. Which is what happened.
 
dad4 said:
No need for force to get kids to take it. Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.

That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.

It isn't a "just do something" kind of situation.

We have a technology that reduces transmission by over 70%. It is about as difficult to use as glasses. And we still have high level officials fighting it.

If everyone would help, R would be below 1.
Base transmission would be

R = 3*(1-0.7) =0.9.

Close, but still under 1.0

Now look at what happens if 1/6 of the country refuses to help. Base transmission becomes

R = 3*(1-(5/6)*0.7) = 1.25

Now we are into exponential growth. And the only difference is 1/6 of the population thinks they should not have to follow the rules.
Click to expand...

Setting aside the 70% number, o.k. let's give you the 70% arguendo. That's before you get to dirty masks, reused masks, cloth masks which have been washed, gaiters and bandanas, masks dropping under the nose, improperly sized masks, masks which get wet, people who remove the masks to talk to friends, people who lower their masks to sneeze. Seriously how many times have I seen people on TV or around me having to constantly raise their falling ill fitting masks from falling over their nose, touching those things 20-30 times in an hour.
 
Desert Hound said:
thefederalist.com

Democrats Want 'Vaccine Passports' Required To Attend Concerts, But No IDs Required To Vote

The left seems intent on removing voter ID, but is simultaneously flirting with the idea of mandating Coronavirus testing and vaccine passports.
thefederalist.com thefederalist.com
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Its a bit of a misleading headline based on the content of the article wrt the vaccine bit.

Here in Republican AZ, I got the first shot, and a card I was told to keep. The second shot will also be recorded on the card apparently and I was told that I should then keep it safe and take an e-copy so that I could produce it going forward ... for what or to whom I have no idea.

So I guess Republican AZ will want me to use this for a vaccine passport ...

BTW, I have no doubt that some countries will actually want international tourists to prove they are vaccinated OR they can quarantine for 2 weeks at their own expense. I travel internationally, obv. not in the last year, and will happily show my vaccine record rather then pay for 2 weeks quarantine.
 
Grace T. said:
Setting aside the 70% number, o.k. let's give you the 70% arguendo. That's before you get to dirty masks, reused masks, cloth masks which have been washed, gaiters and bandanas, masks dropping under the nose, improperly sized masks, masks which get wet, people who remove the masks to talk to friends, people who lower their masks to sneeze. Seriously how many times have I seen people on TV or around me having to constantly raise their falling ill fitting masks from falling over their nose, touching those things 20-30 times in an hour.
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Even with all that, you still get 70-79%. It is still good enough to reduce R below 1.0, if you actually wear it.

Besides, if you want to advocate for better masks, I agree. Mail a box of N95 masks to everyone in the US, then post videos on how to adjust them. It would cost about 2-3 billion dollars. Chump change.

The real problem is that, if 15% of people refuse to mask and distance, that's enough to spread the virus.
 
dad4 said:
We tried the low intrusion methods of controlling disease. People like you refused to help.

What did you think would happen? CDC would watch a half million people die and send a tweet saying “the virus will virus”?

That is not how bureaucracies work.
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Viruses are a part of the evolutionary process. Bureaucracies just get in the way.
 
dad4 said:
No need for force to get kids to take it. Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.

That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.

It isn't a "just do something" kind of situation.

We have a technology that reduces transmission by over 70%. It is about as difficult to use as glasses. And we still have high level officials fighting it.

If everyone would help, R would be below 1.
Base transmission would be

R = 3*(1-0.7) =0.9.

Close, but still under 1.0

Now look at what happens if 1/6 of the country refuses to help. Base transmission becomes

R = 3*(1-(5/6)*0.7) = 1.25

Now we are into exponential growth. And the only difference is 1/6 of the population thinks they should not have to follow the rules.
Click to expand...
Your math is ignoring the survival rate.
 
dad4 said:
I was saying masks, not vaccines. Masks reduce transmission by 70-79%, depending on the study.

We could have killed this thing last summer if the left hadn't rioted and the right had simply worn their masks.

But, as I said, a minority refusing to follow rules is enough to impose a disease on the rest of us. Which is what happened.
Click to expand...
Coocoo
 
Grace T. said:
If you plan to travel, keep your vaccination records handy......

www.wsj.com

Support for Covid-19 Vaccine Passports Grows, With European, Chinese Backing

Many international travelers will likely need to prove they are vaccinated or free of Covid-19 if they plan trips later this year, after the European Union and China both said they would move ahead with plans for “vaccine passports.”
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Its hardly surprising, is it?

It does strike me as somewhat bizarre though, as - based on my understanding - the vaccine purports to prevent you getting ill from COVID, or if you get ill, prevents you getting seriously ill. It doesn't prevent you getting COVID, i.e. you could get it but have no symptoms, so you can be carrying it with zero knowledge that you are carrying it. They also don't know how long it will last or what protection it protects against the newer variants (for obv. reasons).

It seems like its a useful mechanism to get some normalcy back and provides cover for governments if it goes pear shaped and/or provides confidence for people.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
Your math is ignoring the survival rate.
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Nope. I was measuring transmission, not fatalities. Nothing in my math assumed any fatality rate at all. (high or low)

We could have killed the virus with moderate measures last summer. The weather was in our favor. We had masks. We knew to stay outside. A 70% effective control measure is enough to stop outbreaks of a moderately infectious disease- if everyone helps.

If 15% of the country insists on spreading disease, then it isn’t enough. That’s what the math shows, and that’s what happened last summer. A small minority of leftist protesters and right wing anti-mask advocates insisted that the rules did not apply to them. And that minority was enough to give us a mid summer spike when numbers should have been low. R=1.25 instead of R=0.9.

To read the recent news from Texas, that minority is still refusing to help. The left insists on their right to loot Target for social justice, and the right insists on their right to spread disease in defense of freedom.

-Jimbo
 
whatithink said:
Its hardly surprising, is it?

It does strike me as somewhat bizarre though, as - based on my understanding - the vaccine purports to prevent you getting ill from COVID, or if you get ill, prevents you getting seriously ill. It doesn't prevent you getting COVID, i.e. you could get it but have no symptoms, so you can be carrying it with zero knowledge that you are carrying it. They also don't know how long it will last or what protection it protects against the newer variants (for obv. reasons).

It seems like its a useful mechanism to get some normalcy back and provides cover for governments if it goes pear shaped and/or provides confidence for people.
Click to expand...

That's the part that makes people's head hurt. If you are vaccinated but can still catch it and spread it, why get it? If the vaccine isn't a a vaccine but a therapeutic , why get vaccinated if you are low risk? I get "vaccinating" high risk people. Those people don't really travel anywhere, maybe, depending on the population. And you want to make sure if they catch it, it's not as bad as it could be. So why the requirement to have a vaccine passport. It doesn't do anyone any good?? Do we still wear masks after being vaccinated and traveling abroad once again for business. I can't wait to sit in an airplane, fully vaccinated with other vaccinated people for 10 hrs, wearing a mask.

Sounds like a bunch of nonsense and theatre (the word for 2021).

I have zero background in vaccines, virus stuff, etc (except for having been jabbed in the arm for stuff I really didn't care to ask about). My circle includes people in the pharma and medical device world. Their conversations surrounding the vaccine are interesting to say the least. Some consider it a medical device as opposed to a vaccine. Fascinating.
 
dad4 said:
Even with all that, you still get 70-79%. It is still good enough to reduce R below 1.0, if you actually wear it.

Besides, if you want to advocate for better masks, I agree. Mail a box of N95 masks to everyone in the US, then post videos on how to adjust them. It would cost about 2-3 billion dollars. Chump change.

The real problem is that, if 15% of people refuse to mask and distance, that's enough to spread the virus.
Click to expand...

So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing. Incredible. Mind officially blown.

p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like. What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool". The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.
 
Grace T. said:
So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing. Incredible. Mind officially blown.

p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like. What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool". The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.
Click to expand...

Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear. You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy. Hi Buzz!
 
happy9 said:
That's the part that makes people's head hurt. If you are vaccinated but can still catch it and spread it, why get it? If the vaccine isn't a a vaccine but a therapeutic , why get vaccinated if you are low risk? I get "vaccinating" high risk people. Those people don't really travel anywhere, maybe, depending on the population. And you want to make sure if they catch it, it's not as bad as it could be. So why the requirement to have a vaccine passport. It doesn't do anyone any good?? Do we still wear masks after being vaccinated and traveling abroad once again for business. I can't wait to sit in an airplane, fully vaccinated with other vaccinated people for 10 hrs, wearing a mask.

Sounds like a bunch of nonsense and theatre (the word for 2021).

I have zero background in vaccines, virus stuff, etc (except for having been jabbed in the arm for stuff I really didn't care to ask about). My circle includes people in the pharma and medical device world. Their conversations surrounding the vaccine are interesting to say the least. Some consider it a medical device as opposed to a vaccine. Fascinating.
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"I have zero background in vaccines"

No shit?
 
Grace T. said:
Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear. You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy. Hi Buzz!
Click to expand...

Your post used to be interesting because there was usually something to refute. Now they're just empty "humor(?)".
 
happy9 said:
Yep, no shit. Seems like the trend with most people on here and with worshipped experts.

What do you think, is it a vaccine or a therapeutic?
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It's a vaccine. Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.
 
espola said:
It's a vaccine. Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.
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Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread. Don't ya think?

Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land. It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been approved by the FDA.
 
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