With n=3? And 3 different levels of seroprevalence?I get the confirmation bias that would be implicit with justifying policy based on case numbers with regional variant differences... but wouldn’t you find it relevant if there is not divergence given the variants?
No. Not really. If CA has the worst growth, what does it prove? All three states are changing their policies in multiple ways. If CA has a spike, what caused it? Youth soccer just started up. We just opened indoor dining. Schools are opening. And, if CA numbers are good, what does that prove? The weather improved. We have more vaccines distributed. Outdoor sports are open, displacing indoor activities. You can grind any axe you want to with those numbers.
CDC ran a full, county by county regression on this. I’m not going to toss out a regression on 2000 time series data sets because someone wants to pretend to be a data guy with a single snapshot with n=3.