Bad News Thread

This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising. I just can't believe they put it in writing. The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:

SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you.

This is beyond f'ed up. Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.
 
Desert Hound said:
How about explain CA vs TX/FL?

Or explain OR/WA vs UT?
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CA has a more transmissible virus than TX/FL. And CA has a more disease prone low income housing setup.

By rights, our numbers should be significantly worse than theirs. Instead, we are 10-20% lower.

How do you explain AZ vs every other western state? You have more deaths per elderly resident than anyone else.
 
dad4 said:
There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them
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By the way. Why do I continue to compare CA vs TX/FL? Well if we go back over the months and look at your posts...you were constantly telling us those states were a disaster. They were doing it wrong.

So I like to circle back so to speak.

I am very good with math as an econ undergraduate major.. along with being an econ grad student for a period of time. And later being an MBA. So I am good with math and stats. More importantly I am good with understanding what those numbers imply.

I also have a history minor which might be why I remember what you argued before. People tend to forget the past...
 
watfly said:
This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising. I just can't believe they put it in writing. The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:

SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you.

This is beyond f'ed up. Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.
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Are they going to bring in the military elementry school teachers to replace them?
 
dad4 said:
Opened indoor dining in August, just before their big spike.

Relatively low cases before that.
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You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August. Restricted again in October. Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined. Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.
 
Grace T. said:
You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August. Restricted again in October. Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined. Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.
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Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
 
Grace T. said:
Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
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Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?
 
dad4 said:
Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?
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You always throw up something to excuse your priors. Because (for the same reason the 20% thresholds didn’t work) we know (from among others that Fauci guy but also from things like the various outbreaks on boats) that the herd immunity threshold is actually quite high (though I speculate it might be lower for any particular wave). Besides you were the one speculating that it would be stupid to gather for the super bowl and blow our progress...you didn’t qualify “in places like NorCal though I suppose places like Los Angeles Florida Texas and the dakotas with high immunity should be ok to bar indoor dine or house party”
 
Grace T. said:
Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have: Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.
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Why?

There are people who do that for you. You and hound just refuse to believe them.

Though I am amused by his claim that an econ major and an MBA gives him the stats chops to argue biological science of any kind.

Kind of like me saying that, because the training wheels are off my bike, therefore I can drive a semi truck. Not really the same level....
 
dad4 said:
Why?

There are people who do that for you. You and hound just refuse to believe them.

Though I am amused by his claim that an econ major and an MBA gives him the stats chops to argue biological science of any kind.

Kind of like me saying that, because the training wheels are off my bike, therefore I can drive a semi truck. Not really the same level....
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Because they haven’t been exactly honest to date and have been shown repeatedly (as with the schools) to put agenda before the actual math and science. But as I said if there is an effect it’s been negligible so you’d had to do that to actually quantify it. It’s not clear and obvious
 
Grace T. said:
You always throw up something to excuse your priors. Because (for the same reason the 20% thresholds didn’t work) we know (from among others that Fauci guy but also from things like the various outbreaks on boats) that the herd immunity threshold is actually quite high (though I speculate it might be lower for any particular wave). Besides you were the one speculating that it would be stupid to gather for the super bowl and blow our progress...you didn’t qualify “in places like NorCal though I suppose places like Los Angeles Florida Texas and the dakotas with high immunity should be ok to bar indoor dine or house party”
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Oh, I still think it was stupid for anyone to hold super bowl parties this year.

You don't need a 30% increase in cases for it to be a dumb idea.

Herd immunity is context dependent, by the way. You can use a cruise ship to establish a number, but that only tells you the herd immunity level for that behavior in that environment. Put the same people back in their homes, and the number changes entirely.
 
dad4 said:
Oh, I still think it was stupid for anyone to hold super bowl parties this year.

You don't need a 30% increase in cases for it to be a dumb idea.

Herd immunity is context dependent, by the way. You can use a cruise ship to establish a number, but that only tells you the herd immunity level for that behavior in that environment. Put the same people back in their homes, and the number changes entirely.
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I’d agree with all this. But you were the one who was concerned numbers would go up if they were stupid. Their stupidity has not substantially impacted the numbers
 
Grace T. said:
Because they haven’t been exactly honest to date and have been shown repeatedly (as with the schools) to put agenda before the actual math and science. But as I said if there is an effect it’s been negligible so you’d had to do that to actually quantify it. It’s not clear and obvious
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You're looking for effects that swing transmissibility by 40%.

I'm looking for anything that causes a 2% shift.

It makes a difference.
 
Grace T. said:
I’d agree with all this. But you were the one who was concerned numbers would go up if they were stupid. Their stupidity has not substantially impacted the numbers
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How stupid were they? Do we know? Or do we just assume that news anecdotes must be representative? Seems a bad assumption.

Could look at ratings or beer sales, I suppose. Not sure how you tell whether they watched at home or at a friend's house, though.
 
dad4 said:
You're looking for effects that swing transmissibility by 40%.

I'm looking for anything that causes a 2% shift.

It makes a difference.
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By definition it makes a difference. The question though is how substantial is the difference (the benefit) and how does it compare to the cost. We agree on the former...you have repeatedly refused to look at the latter. And the rhetoric and advice of the health experts have made it seem much more than a 2% impact (and while Christmas certainly reached that level...I doubt the Super Bowl did)
 
dad4 said:
How stupid were they? Do we know? Or do we just assume that news anecdotes must be representative? Seems a bad assumption.

Could look at ratings or beer sales, I suppose. Not sure how you tell whether they watched at home or at a friend's house, though.
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True but if the hysterics in the news were to be believed as well as the pictures broadcast, pretty stupid (though I grant you the news media is often liars). If folks are well behaved anyway then (as Sweden believes) what’s to point of banning bars restaurants and gathering....if most behave smart they’ll come to the conclusion without closures. You can’t have it both ways: we need to mandate because people are stupid or they are not and people can make their own decisions
 
Grace T. said:
By definition it makes a difference. The question though is how substantial is the difference (the benefit) and how does it compare to the cost. We agree on the former...you have repeatedly refused to look at the latter. And the rhetoric and advice of the health experts have made it seem much more than a 2% impact (and while Christmas certainly reached that level...I doubt the Super Bowl did)
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That's because you see a 40% drop as a 40% drop in the total.

I see a 2% drop in transmissibility as one tenth of a solution.

You're looking at totals and I'm looking at growth rates.
 
dad4 said:
That's because you see a 40% drop as a 40% drop in the total.

I see a 2% drop in transmissibility as one tenth of a solution.

You're looking at totals and I'm looking at growth rates.
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Then it’s not 2% given there’s been virtually no impact on the curve whatsoever.
 
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