Here's the CIF press release.....
Which projections do you like better?I can't believe they are still wedded to these stupid projections. None of them have EVER panned out.
Gov Newsom says CA may run out of ICU beds before Christmas Eve
California Gov Gavin Newsom said he may impose a stay-at-home order to counter surging COVID-19 hospitalizations that threaten to overwhelm ICUs before Christmas Eve.www.dailymail.co.uk
Making policy using projections that are consistently bad is not good policy/governance.Which projections do you like better?
Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?
Which projections do you like better?
Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?
Correct ones?Which projections do you like better?
Are you familiar with the story of the boy who called wolf?Which projections do you like better?
Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?
Great. Now is the perfect time for “team reality” to step up and show how awesome they are at predicting pandemics.I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics. Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance. So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections. I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world. Bad math is worse than no math.
Great. Now is the perfect time for “team reality” to step up and show how awesome they are at predicting pandemics.
Post a link to the “team reality“ covid ICU forecast for Dec 31 and January 31, and we can look at it in 9 weeks.
Looking forward to February, when I can properly admire the amazingly accurate ‘team reality” forecast.
I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics. Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance. So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections. I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world. Bad math is worse than no math.
Are you familiar with the story of the boy who called wolf?
All kidding aside, I'm concerned with spikes in the hospitalizations fortunately SD County is far from capacity and as we've seen these waves burnout after a few weeks. Lets not rehash the debate caused by dire predictions of one poster from a couple months ago who was adamant that OC would run out of ICU beds.
I trust history over models.
To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government. Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission. Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity. Scott Atlas is exhibit A
The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.
She: I have told you a dozen times that if you don't slow down before the curve, you are going off the road.
He: I have put the brakes on every time just like you said, and we never went off the road - so I'm not listening to you any more.
Models are based on history.
Link. “Team reality“ needs to post a link.To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government. Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission. Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity. Scott Atlas is exhibit A
The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.
Link. “Team reality“ needs to post a link.
You are criticizing other people's projections when you have none of your own to test.
If you can do it better, post a link to a "team reality" projection. We can wait two months and see how accurate it was.
Otherwise, you are "team blowhard".
So we are back to psychiatric evaluations of those who disagree with you?Much rather be on team blowhard than on team scared and delusional
The Danish mask study correctly demonstrated that surgical masks on the receiving end reduce risk to the wearer by less than 50%.To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government. Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission. Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity. Scott Atlas is exhibit A
The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.