Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
There was an Independent study done in NYC schools that showed the same......yet in CA, here we are.
Desert Hound
DA
So the El Paso mayor had this to say today.
"“We did a deep dive in our contact tracing for the week of November the 10th through the 16th and found that 55% of the positives were coming from shopping at large retailers, what we’d term as the big box stores,” Margo said. “And those are considered essential under CISA guidelines under homeland security. And we don’t really have- I don’t have any control over any limitations there.”
I think @dad4 thinks bars are the driver though
"“We did a deep dive in our contact tracing for the week of November the 10th through the 16th and found that 55% of the positives were coming from shopping at large retailers, what we’d term as the big box stores,” Margo said. “And those are considered essential under CISA guidelines under homeland security. And we don’t really have- I don’t have any control over any limitations there.”
I think @dad4 thinks bars are the driver though
Not surprising. I’ve been thinking that since the press conference on Monday... my guess was Thursday...
The press conference from Monday indicated a ‘deep purple’ expansion of mitigation efforts, if the trends continued and may be drastic.
Last week, the local reporting was often about how to expect an increase this week due to impacted testing and reporting over the Holiday Weekend.
I’m guessing this was a known outcome and Monday’s Press conference was a trial balloon as to how it would be received.... it made my apple newsfeed and was well received by the media.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Ha! Maybe he's trying to catch it at the top so he can take credit. It is likely very close - especially in the areas that were hit hard the first wave. Santa Clara county, not so close. Ugh. I think it's going to be a while. @dad4
As you said, SCC has a long way to go to get out of purple. I wonder which political morons leaned on the health dept. to open up restaurants.
We will know more in a few days as the Thanksgiving infections start to come in. Maybe people were smart enough to have their meals separately.
Not betting on it. Now they have to choose whether to close retail in December, or risk running out of ICU space.
Really?So the El Paso mayor had this to say today.
"“We did a deep dive in our contact tracing for the week of November the 10th through the 16th and found that 55% of the positives were coming from shopping at large retailers, what we’d term as the big box stores,” Margo said. “And those are considered essential under CISA guidelines under homeland security. And we don’t really have- I don’t have any control over any limitations there.”
I think @dad4 thinks bars are the driver though
No one in the country has managed to contact trace 55% of their positive cases. Wonder how they managed it?
Of course, it is just barely possible that the mayor of El Paso has an incentive to blame Walmart even if he lacks real data.
Not saying Walmart is a smart place to be right now, but you need a better data source than a politician.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Now that's some good advice whether in a pandemic or not.
While we’re in the bad news thread, since math is a strong point of yours... at the current rate of spread, you can pick a variable for the duration of that spread rate, when do we hit 200,000 test confirmed infections per day. How many days at that rate will it take to achieve heard immunity? How does that compare with the projected timeline for a vaccine to reach widespread access?
I've been looking at the upper midwest to try to guess where confirmed infections tops out.
Seems to be just over 10% if you insist on being macho. (North Dakota plan.)
Means we don't hit pure herd immunity until we are at 34 million confirmed infections. About 100 days at 200k per day.
Mind you, that plan is bat shit crazy stupid. You'd have something like 2 million extra hospitalizations and 200,000 extra deaths.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Check this link out these 3 links. If you look at the first link, you will see we are actually dropping in new cases/day. We'll see if the drop persists despite the holidays. Also, the rate of spread is almost constantly changing and the level needed for herd immunity is debated - some indicating it's as low as 40% (few believe this is likely) others as high as 70%. As dad states, ND might be our test for it. Reaching herd immunity will be regional. HI will likely get there last, sometime this summer and primarily through vaccination, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and a bunch of the heartland may be pretty close in March if the vaccine progresses as expected.
** Daily data and 7-day averages for each state and the US as a whole. As a nation, we are heading down in cases/day (see the top of the page in link below - scroll down to see "mini" case graphs for the states.)
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.
www.nytimes.com
** 7-day new case/day average for each state. This is actually down about 10% from its high last week of 55/100,000
Risk Levels - Global Epidemics
RISK LEVELS First published in July 2020, our COVID-19 risk levels dashboard served as a tool for the public to track the pandemic in real time. As the pandemic has evolved and testing and reporting data have changed significantly, we have retired the dashboard as of December 2022. To explore...
globalepidemics.org
** This estimates the rate of growth of the new cases - how many people each infected individual will infect, on average.
It’s interesting that Europe is following the same pattern too irrespective of state interventions (Switzerland/Sweden v France/spain). There are some anomalies (eg Germany is still at peak, Canada still rising). It may also point that the coronavirus may be following the classic 1-2-3 waves of influenza and other respiratory illnesses. The question then is does the vaccine get things under control before the third wave hits.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
At first glance, those still rising when "comparable" neighbors are not had little to no "first wave".
The word "wave" appears to be used ambiguously - even among experts. Fauci warned of "wave after wave" of new infections a few days ago and on October 26 he stated that we are still in "an elongated first wave". So, is CA in the 2nd wave or the elongated first wave? What about TX, AZ, and FL? Graphically, those states are in a 2nd wave. Has HI even had a virus "wave"? Maybe he means that some places are just now experiencing their first wave - although some appear to be well into their second wave. I don't know. I believe we have a good shot at missing a wave this spring if the vaccine gets out as they plan in the states that have considerable seroprevalence. Either way, the death rate should drop considerably - all other things being equal - since a significant proportion of the population at high risk will be vaccinated by March according to plan.
One thing that struck me was how quickly some of the states dropped from the peak (ND, SD, etc.) compared to the "first wave" in other states. Maybe that's what the "little/no intervention" curve looks like.
SD and ND are interesting. ND instituted a partial lockdown though a little late. SD didn't. Their cuves are virtually identical (if anything SD is doing a little better).
Here's the CIF press release.....
I've figured out what's happening in California. NoCal is trying to F with SoCal. NoCal has a self esteem problem and is jealous of SoCal (likely because our beaches and soccer teams are so much better than theirs). Look at how Newsom lashed out at OC early in the pandemic and closed OC beaches. Also look how its all the NoCal politicians that are so sanctimonious about their restrictions, but are the ones that ignore them. Pelosi, Newsom, Mayor of SF and Mayor of SJ do as they please, while they come down harshly on any SoCal rule breakers. Just like Russia fomented controversy and discontent on Facebook to guarantee a Trump victory 2016, NoCal is planting surrogates on Socalsoccer.com to create an atmosphere of fear and lash out at any perceived rule breakers. You think its just a coincidence that Dad4 is from NoCal? You may want to rethink that. Qanon has nothing on me.
So here's what I'm hearing about the new state lockdowns. Youth sports will continue as guided/distanced. It probably doubles down on the stupid LA County moves to end outdoor dining and to restrict private gatherings (which no one will pay attention to). Their problem is there are now so many carve outs (school waivers, supreme court church decisions, protests, favored businesses), that they are getting pushed back hard by key interest groups all arguing they should be given exemptions. I'd still get my haircuts this week just in case if you need one.
I can't believe they are still wedded to these stupid projections. None of them have EVER panned out.
www.dailymail.co.uk
Gov Newsom says CA may run out of ICU beds before Christmas Eve
California Gov Gavin Newsom said he may impose a stay-at-home order to counter surging COVID-19 hospitalizations that threaten to overwhelm ICUs before Christmas Eve.
Which projections do you like better?I can't believe they are still wedded to these stupid projections. None of them have EVER panned out.
Gov Newsom says CA may run out of ICU beds before Christmas Eve
California Gov Gavin Newsom said he may impose a stay-at-home order to counter surging COVID-19 hospitalizations that threaten to overwhelm ICUs before Christmas Eve.
Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?