Desert Hound
DA
Making policy using projections that are consistently bad is not good policy/governance.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics. Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance. So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections. I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world. Bad math is worse than no math.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Correct ones?
Are you familiar with the story of the boy who called wolf?
All kidding aside, I'm concerned with spikes in the hospitalizations fortunately SD County is far from capacity and as we've seen these waves burnout after a few weeks. Lets not rehash the debate caused by dire predictions of one poster from a couple months ago who was adamant that OC would run out of ICU beds.
I trust history over models.
Great. Now is the perfect time for “team reality” to step up and show how awesome they are at predicting pandemics.
Post a link to the “team reality“ covid ICU forecast for Dec 31 and January 31, and we can look at it in 9 weeks.
Looking forward to February, when I can properly admire the amazingly accurate ‘team reality” forecast.
To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government. Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission. Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity. Scott Atlas is exhibit A
The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.
L.A. County must show evidence for outdoor dining ban, judge orders
A judge on Wednesday ordered Los Angeles County public health officials to show scientific evidence justifying the outdoor dining ban imposed last week amid soaring coronavirus cases.
www.latimes.com
She: I have told you a dozen times that if you don't slow down before the curve, you are going off the road.
He: I have put the brakes on every time just like you said, and we never went off the road - so I'm not listening to you any more.
Models are based on history.
Coocoo.
If true the projections would have held for South Dakota, Florida, Switzerland, and Sweden at a minimum. They didn't.
This is the funniest thing you've ever written.
Link. “Team reality“ needs to post a link.
You are criticizing other people's projections when you have none of your own to test.
If you can do it better, post a link to a "team reality" projection. We can wait two months and see how accurate it was.
Otherwise, you are "team blowhard".
Much rather be on team blowhard than on team scared and delusional
So we are back to psychiatric evaluations of those who disagree with you?
Don't forget to paste your words into a meme generator. That will really prove your point.
We both know that forecasts are difficult. Criticizing forecasts without making them is dirty pool. So don't do it.
The Danish mask study correctly demonstrated that surgical masks on the receiving end reduce risk to the wearer by less than 50%.
Then, some fools on the internet misinterpreted the study to claim that masks do not work overall.
Do we need to go back to the study to remember what it does, and does not, say? Or can we agree to stop misrepresenting the study?
I wasn’t suggesting that the above was a plan. More that the ‘bat shit crazy’ numbers, 2mil hospitalizations and 200k deaths may already be in the cards.
Vaccine availability may play a small part in achieving herd immunity given the rate of spread. If widespread distribution is expected in April/May... we’re going to be well past that 100 day mark.
True the run rate is extremely unlikely to remain constant, but with that time frame still being in respiratory illness season and a possible 3rd wave in store (each wave has increased, likely based on the baseline of possible carriers at onset) the net results may not be that dissimilar, before widespread availability of a vaccine.
The extent to which you are delusional is you are actually arguing you rather have government policy based on a forecast that's wrong than one than none at all. If you follow it logically the first is guaranteed to get you wrong results...in the 2nd you might actually get lucky (assuming there wasn't anything other than models to go on, i.e., no other evidence). Only a math teacher could be this myopic.
If it follows the pattern of prior respiratory epidemics (which we have no proof to believe it will), the second wave is generally the worst.
Opinion | Here's How to Think About the Danish Mask Study
What the DANMASK-19 trial showed and didn't show about mask use and COVID-19
www.medpagetoday.com
I'll pull a page from your book and say I'll take the interpretation of an MD over a math teacher.
Opinion | Here's How to Think About the Danish Mask Study
What the DANMASK-19 trial showed and didn't show about mask use and COVID-19
Interesting read for an interpretation of a study.
Thanks for sharing.
Soccer Bum 06
SILVER
Finally a judge doing their job. It’s a start.L.A. County must show evidence for outdoor dining ban, judge orders
A judge on Wednesday ordered Los Angeles County public health officials to show scientific evidence justifying the outdoor dining ban imposed last week amid soaring coronavirus cases.