Bad News Thread

Not doing what they hoped they would do.
Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.

In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely. If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.

Saying “not working” is at best imprecise. At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.
 
Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.

In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely. If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.

Saying “not working” is at best imprecise. At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.

dictionary.com's 3rd definition of "to work" (v, adj): "of a plan or method, to have the desired result or effect".

For the record (again), I do think there's a limited set of circumstances (such as short term exposure in a doctor's office or grocery store) where masks might help, certain masks are better than others (with some actually being counterproductive), and one of the likely but still unproven impacts of masks is reducing viral loads. Saying masks are doing just great has the opposite effect....encourages people to get together (like my church members Christmas eve), because they follow the faith of the science and think masks will protect them indoors for 3+ hours, including their aged grandparents. And you know I do believe: virus gonna virus....nothing short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns has been shown to stop the virus.
 
The costs may be relatively small (particularly in situations such as stores where people only need to wear masks for a short time period) but it's false to say there are no costs to wearing a mask, particularly for workers and children that have to wear one all day..... If it were really that easy we wouldn't have caught Fauci and others not wearing one when the cameras were rolling.


 
Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.

In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely. If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.

Saying “not working” is at best imprecise. At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.
I fear that "mask and distance" also misleads some people into believing that wearing a mask is as effective as distancing.
 
The costs may be relatively small (particularly in situations such as stores where people only need to wear masks for a short time period) but it's false to say there are no costs to wearing a mask, particularly for workers and children that have to wear one all day..... If it were really that easy we wouldn't have caught Fauci and others not wearing one when the cameras were rolling.


"Less happiness"? Well- no shit, we're in a pandemic and nothing is the same.
 
I fear that "mask and distance" also misleads some people into believing that wearing a mask is as effective as distancing.
”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice. Just emphasize that it means do all three.

Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?
 
"Less happiness"? Well- no shit, we're in a pandemic and nothing is the same.

My younger bro (who is fluent in German....Dad insisted we all learn a 2 non native languages so we ended up with Chinese/Japanese, Russian/French, German/Italian) says like farfegnugen or schadenfreude since the survey was done in German it's a little hard to translate (there are various words for happiness apparently). He says it's probably something like "satisfaction with life" and malaise is probably something closer to "mild depression".

”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice. Just emphasize that it means do all three.

Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?

Yeah, they need a good slogan (probably the furthest from my areas of knowledge), but technically it's not really a summation. If you are distanced (depending on the distance, and particularly outside), you don't need a mask. If you are indoors at someone's house for long periods of times, like my church members on Christmas Eve, if someone is sick masks and 6 ft distance is probably not going to save you. My guess is that masks probably do the most good for short periods of exposure and mainly for the employees such as at a supermarket, doctor's office, restaurant pick up, or car servicing. They aren't all equivalent and out of those distancing is the most important (kind of like safe you know what....don't do it, but if you do use.....which BTW don't work in either protecting you from disease or pregnancy full time.....).

But one of the big problems is, as Fauci has admitted, the health experts just aren't being honest with people. Treat them like grownups. Don't over promise like masks are better than vaccines because then when Los Angeles happens your credibility is shot (masks aren't working because the masks don't meet the goals you set). Better to say hey we think they help a little, particularly indoors for short periods of exposure...distancing is far more important, but care about your fellow person and if you are going indoors please wear a mask...it might even reduce the viral loads....and hey one-off surgicals are much better than cloth and you can get rid of those bandanas and gaiters. Well, marketing isn't really my area but I do know lying and manipulating your audience isn't a successful program long term.

The reason why they aren't doing it, BTW, I suspect is the same reason the teachers don't want to go back (and if you look back historically it's related to our supply problems in April/May). They have to tell the grocery store employees, meat packers, factory workers, restaurant workers (who can't afford weekly testing like the studios do on productions) there's nothing we can do to protect them and no one wants to do that....hence masks are better than vaccines.
 
My younger bro (who is fluent in German....Dad insisted we all learn a 2 non native languages so we ended up with Chinese/Japanese, Russian/French, German/Italian) says like farfegnugen or schadenfreude since the survey was done in German it's a little hard to translate (there are various words for happiness apparently). He says it's probably something like "satisfaction with life" and malaise is probably something closer to "mild depression".



Yeah, they need a good slogan (probably the furthest from my areas of knowledge), but technically it's not really a summation. If you are distanced (depending on the distance, and particularly outside), you don't need a mask. If you are indoors at someone's house for long periods of times, like my church members on Christmas Eve, if someone is sick masks and 6 ft distance is probably not going to save you. My guess is that masks probably do the most good for short periods of exposure and mainly for the employees such as at a supermarket, doctor's office, restaurant pick up, or car servicing. They aren't all equivalent and out of those distancing is the most important (kind of like safe you know what....don't do it, but if you do use.....which BTW don't work in either protecting you from disease or pregnancy full time.....).

But one of the big problems is, as Fauci has admitted, the health experts just aren't being honest with people. Treat them like grownups. Don't over promise like masks are better than vaccines because then when Los Angeles happens your credibility is shot (masks aren't working because the masks don't meet the goals you set). Better to say hey we think they help a little, particularly indoors for short periods of exposure...distancing is far more important, but care about your fellow person and if you are going indoors please wear a mask...it might even reduce the viral loads....and hey one-off surgicals are much better than cloth and you can get rid of those bandanas and gaiters. Well, marketing isn't really my area but I do know lying and manipulating your audience isn't a successful program long term.

The reason why they aren't doing it, BTW, I suspect is the same reason the teachers don't want to go back (and if you look back historically it's related to our supply problems in April/May). They have to tell the grocery store employees, meat packers, factory workers, restaurant workers (who can't afford weekly testing like the studios do on productions) there's nothing we can do to protect them and no one wants to do that....hence masks are better than vaccines.
I wasn't looking for a mathematical formula. Even if I had one, very few people could read it.

I was looking for a short bit of advice. "Mask, distance, outdoors- do all three" is decent advice that lowers transmission and still lets you see friends.

By contrast, "virus gonna virus" is awful advice. It is pure useless fatalism. It just encourages people to give up and adopt the kinds of behavior that make the pandemic worse.

So, stop making excuses for yourself and just do it. Mask, distance, and stay outside. It isn't that hard.
 
I wasn't looking for a mathematical formula. Even if I had one, very few people could read it.

I was looking for a short bit of advice. "Mask, distance, outdoors- do all three" is decent advice that lowers transmission and still lets you see friends.

By contrast, "virus gonna virus" is awful advice. It is pure useless fatalism. It just encourages people to give up and adopt the kinds of behavior that make the pandemic worse.

So, stop making excuses for yourself and just do it. Mask, distance, and stay outside. It isn't that hard.

Like I said, I don't do marketing, but a more valuable piece of advice is for the authorities to just stop lying to people if they want to keep any shreds of credibility. That just encourages people to stop listening to anything they say, and no pithy slogan will save them.

"virus gonna virus" by contrast isn't advice. It's criticism of heavy handed NPIs which short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns don't do very much.
 
”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice. Just emphasize that it means do all three.

Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?
I think it makes sense to approach it as we approach sex education. The only guarantee is abstinence (distance), but if you can't abstain use protection (mask), but know that protection is not 100%.
 
Like I said, I don't do marketing, but a more valuable piece of advice is for the authorities to just stop lying to people if they want to keep any shreds of credibility. That just encourages people to stop listening to anything they say, and no pithy slogan will save them.

"virus gonna virus" by contrast isn't advice. It's criticism of heavy handed NPIs which short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns don't do very much.
"Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.

You claim it is inevitable, which means you are now free to do anything you want. ( After all, how can you be blamed for causing something that was going to happen anyway? )

There are intelligent criticisms of specific NPI. "Virus gonna virus" isn't one of them.
 
"Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.
The virus is going to virus.

If only there were some way to compare a mask up approach, lockdowns, school closures vs places that didn't do what CA has done.

Oh wait there is.

As of today CA has 61k cases per million
TX has 62k cases per million
FL has 63k cases per million.

If you have a school age kid, own a biz, work for a biz that has been deemed unessential, TX and Fl would be the places to be at.

Had the CA approach worked we would see vastly different results. The idea is to stop the spread right? And yet the CA approach has produced the same results as 2 of the states who are in the widest open category.

Masks?

Before it became politicized the CDC listed a long list of studies all that showed that even in medical setting with professionals, masks had little utility in stopping the spread of the flu. Those studies had been done over the course of decades.

The science hasn't changed. The politics have. We have seen the "experts" here and abroad move the goal posts, change their explanations, etc. That has been driven in large part by politics. Politicians want to be seen as problem solvers and doing something. CA falls deeply into that group.
 
Just got off the phone with my pediatrician friend. She's just inundated. She got the first dose of the vaccine (moderna). Wasn't as bad as she thought it would be. Her pet theory is the mutant strain of the virus is all over Los Angeles. People masking up and with minimal contacts are getting sick. Anecdotally the cases she's seeing now are much less severe than those she saw in the spring, though admittedly she doesn't see much by way of elderly people, even family member. She thinks in LA County there's not much hope of middle schools or high schools being reopened this spring.
 
"Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.

You claim it is inevitable, which means you are now free to do anything you want. ( After all, how can you be blamed for causing something that was going to happen anyway? )

There are intelligent criticisms of specific NPI. "Virus gonna virus" isn't one of them.
Why keep everyone in their house where the virus lives? I heard sunshine and the D Vit works wonders :)
The virus is going to virus.

If only there were some way to compare a mask up approach, lockdowns, school closures vs places that didn't do what CA has done.

Oh wait there is.

As of today CA has 61k cases per million
TX has 62k cases per million
FL has 63k cases per million.

If you have a school age kid, own a biz, work for a biz that has been deemed unessential, TX and Fl would be the places to be at.

Had the CA approach worked we would see vastly different results. The idea is to stop the spread right? And yet the CA approach has produced the same results as 2 of the states who are in the widest open category.

Masks?

Before it became politicized the CDC listed a long list of studies all that showed that even in medical setting with professionals, masks had little utility in stopping the spread of the flu. Those studies had been done over the course of decades.

The science hasn't changed. The politics have. We have seen the "experts" here and abroad move the goal posts, change their explanations, etc. That has been driven in large part by politics. Politicians want to be seen as problem solvers and doing something. CA falls deeply into that group.
It's called Junk for a reason.
 
It is important to remember this....

"Although they represent less than 1 percent of the U.S. population and just over 0.5 percent of COVID-19 cases, nursing home residents accounted for nearly 39 percent of COVID-19 deaths through December 10."


 
Is this correct? If so, wow.
It is correct.

The numbers get updated throughout the day. So what you see in the morning may change by evening.

So it really begs the question (s).

CA has shut down hard. No school, university, no sports, severe biz restrictions and closings.

For what? The CA plan was/is to stop the SPREAD of the virus.

Take a look at the next 2 biggest states that have taken a decidedly different approach.

Their cases per million are essentially the same as CA.


2021-01-04_1502.png

 
"Government bureaucrats were caught flat-footed, and the flood of money being rushed out the door in the name of emergency meant more vulnerabilities than ever. It took many states more than six months to add verification requirements and partially stem the flow. Just to use one state as an example, Washington state usually identifies a few dozen fraudsters in a year—now, it has identified more than 122,000 since March.

“When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm,” Washington Employment Security Department Commissioner Suzi Levine said. “[Scammers] have been lying in wait for this moment.”

 
"Government bureaucrats were caught flat-footed, and the flood of money being rushed out the door in the name of emergency meant more vulnerabilities than ever. It took many states more than six months to add verification requirements and partially stem the flow. Just to use one state as an example, Washington state usually identifies a few dozen fraudsters in a year—now, it has identified more than 122,000 since March.

“When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm,” Washington Employment Security Department Commissioner Suzi Levine said. “[Scammers] have been lying in wait for this moment.”

I agree. Congress should actively pursue the financial firms who allow the money laundering to take place. If that infrastructure didn't exist, then there's no way they could skim so much so quickly. Spread the web side enough and they would catch a lot of other launderers also.

BTW, the $36B is an estimate only and could be way over or way under.

I fucking hate these scammers.

I also fucking hate the enablers, i.e. the financial institutions who allow this to happen and continue to operate with impunity (minor wrist slaps aside) like HSBC and Deutsche Bank

Extract,
Mobile banking and other online money-transfer apps have opened up new avenues for moving money around more easily. They allow access to accounts without anyone ever appearing in person – even avoiding cameras at ATMs – and offer debit cards that are easily moved on the black market.

Scammers used Green Dot accounts to transfer funds in bulk in the Washington fraud, LeVine said. Mayowa, the scammer in Nigeria, said fraudsters also use Venmo, PayPal, Cash App and Walmart2Walmart to extract funds.

“Once those funds go to a Green Dot account, they’re often transferred through a series of movements into mules based in the U.S. probably, then moved offshore in two to three hops,” said Armen Najarian, chief identity officer of Agari, the security firm.
 
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