Bad News Thread

If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates. They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}. Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).
In terms of hospital capacity, is it a function of CA just not having enough hospital beds to begin with compared to their population.

I don't have a link as proof but have heard that CA has about 80,000 beds to care for a population of over 40M. FL has a population of 22M with about 55,000 beds. I know crazy talk about rationing care makes people freak out, but the bed to population ratio in CA is a bit off. I'm sure there is surge capacity. There is a public health planner somewhere starting to panic at these numbers.
 
If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates. They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}. Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).

I've come around to the idea that the effectiveness of lockdowns really don't have any relation to indoor dining, or worship houses, or soccer tournaments. or retail. Really, I think when it gets down to it it is a function of mobility. The more out and about a population is, the higher the risk of transmission. I think it's that simple. That explains why Belgium and the Neatherlands began to inflect before lockdowns went into effect (because people freaked out and stopped socializing before hand) and why California is still going up despite the governor's hypocritical measures (Los Angeles freeways are still packed). It explains why the Australian lockdowns worked, and why the UK lockdowns had the strange results they did this second time around.

Some of us have been saying that the end result of trying to perpetually lockdown was that lockdowns would lose their effectiveness. Some of us argued we should be open in the summer (notwithstanding the small summer SoCal mini surge) and preserve our bullets for when they were most needed. One group of people wanted perpetual lockdowns and "keep people safe". One group of people wanted it to be done with. As a result, we got neither. And the politicians anytime the situation gets worse feel they need to do something-- so they do idiotic things with low resistance as opposed to things which might make a difference but require more political risk.
 
Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong. There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now. They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house. Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers. Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.

 
Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong. There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now. They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house. Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers. Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.

This isn't good news for getting back to normal anytime soon in CA. (links follow each).

Evidently, in Oregon, the vaccine is more complex than it is in Texas, Delaware, Puerto Rico, New York, and Colorado. In Houston, some don't like the virus's politics.

--- Oregon

In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and Colorado acted even quicker, administering the vaccine within hours of receiving it.

In Oregon, Legacy Health was the first hospital system to get the Pfizer vaccine. It arrived Monday. The hospital has yet to provide a timeline as to when it'll start the vaccinations.

On Tuesday, OHSU and Kaiser Permanente received their shipments. OHSU has said it'll start vaccinating its employees Wednesday, but Kaiser says it's waiting until Friday.

"This is a new vaccine, as I said, and it’s a complex vaccine," Dr. Katie Sharff, an infectious disease physician for Kaiser Permanente Northwest, said.


---- Houston

A Houston critical care doctor told NPR that more than half of the nurses in his unit won't get the COVID-19 vaccination.

"Most of the reasons why most of my people don't want to get the vaccine are politically motivated."


----- General Information

 
OC is breaking records. No one is out and about and everyone I know is wearing a mask. Why so many cases?

On Sunday, county officials reported another 20,198 tests for the virus had been taken in the last day. Since testing began locally, more than 1.85 million tests have been taken. In Orange County there are now take-at-home saliva tests available to residents, along with in-person testing.

The county has tested an average of about 527 people per 100,000 residents in a week, an all-time high, according to the latest figures available.
 
Now we all know why NY is hot mess. No one is afraid of Rona. I say let's use this group as a big test in the Big Apple. Lock them all up in one big cell and see WHO gets IT and see how it spreads with young people.

NYC sheriffs bust at least 164 maskless revelers at ‘illegal’ nightclub
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Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong. There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now. They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house. Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers. Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.


From realpolitik reasoning the younger citizens, those who have more life to lose, should get the vaccine first. There is probably a statistical balance between prioritizing those most at risk and those with the most to lose. Disciples of John Nash can try to find an equilibrium point, if it doesn't drive them crazy.
 
Also an interesting read as they’ve finally released places of outbreaks in San Diego.

Interesting results. Be curious to know for restaurants the breakdown of indoor vs. outdoor and staff vs customer breakouts. For November cases (case breakdown was provided only for November, totals were only provided for # of breakouts), Walmart, Target, Costco ranked 1, 5, 7 for source of infections. Only one restaurant, Olive Garden at #14, was noted in the top 15 for cases in November.

Of course, this study doesn't report on "at home" breakouts since it only accounts for those infected that weren't close contacts.
 

Not that it should surprise anyone... casinos are an issue. @dad4
So 630 cases out of close to 130k for the San Diego area? ie about 1/2 of 1% of all cases are tied to casinos.

Also per the article "To say that a case is linked with a location means that a person was there within two weeks of being diagnosed with COVID-19. It does not mean that the person contracted the virus at the location or infected anyone else there."

So the question one would ask is do they count multiple locations? IE if a person went to Target, then Olive Garden, then the Casino. Do they all get associated with "an outbreak" or do they just pick one?
 
From realpolitik reasoning the younger citizens, those who have more life to lose, should get the vaccine first. There is probably a statistical balance between prioritizing those most at risk and those with the most to lose. Disciples of John Nash can try to find an equilibrium point, if it doesn't drive them crazy.
I would agree that we should vaccinate children first if the virus was equally lethal across age groups. However, given that the unadjusted death rate for the group aged 75+ is over 1900x greater than age 0-4 and over 3500x greater than age 5-17, it’s hard to argue with 75+ before children. I assume unadjusted means recorded cases only which makes it likely it’s even considerably higher than the multipliers above. Check my math at the link below.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...s-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html
 
Also an interesting read as they’ve finally released places of outbreaks in San Diego.



So, basically wherever people go to work....it's really no surprise Tom Cruise was ranting at his crew......you work, you socialize....it's human nature.
 
I would agree that we should vaccinate children first if the virus was equally lethal across age groups. However, given that the unadjusted death rate for the group aged 75+ is over 1900x greater than age 0-4 and over 3500x greater than age 5-17, it’s hard to argue with 75+ before children. I assume unadjusted means recorded cases only which makes it likely it’s even considerably higher than the multipliers above. Check my math at the link below.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...s-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

There are many factors to consider - expected lifetime without covid, the numbers of each age group, societal/moral considerations, etc. In any event, I would vote in favor of my adult children getting a spot in line ahead of me.
 
There are many factors to consider - expected lifetime without covid, the numbers of each age group, societal/moral considerations, etc. In any event, I would vote in favor of my adult children getting a spot in line ahead of me.
Completely understand your position here. I think many (most?) parents will feel the same way. Your adult children will also be at considerably higher risk than children under 18.

Yes, definitely many factors. The only strong opinion I have is to get it to as many people as possible, as soon as possible. Treat it like boarding groups on a plane - keep it rolling. If people are reluctant when the time comes for their group, they can wait and come for the vaccine later.
 
So 630 cases out of close to 130k for the San Diego area? ie about 1/2 of 1% of all cases are tied to casinos.

Also per the article "To say that a case is linked with a location means that a person was there within two weeks of being diagnosed with COVID-19. It does not mean that the person contracted the virus at the location or infected anyone else there."

So the question one would ask is do they count multiple locations? IE if a person went to Target, then Olive Garden, then the Casino. Do they all get associated with "an outbreak" or do they just pick one?
The casino relationship does not surprise me. I will never forget the time I was at a Casino in Norcal called "Cache Creek", a dude was sitting in between two slot machines, playing one with his hand and the other with his bare assed foot- repulsive.
 
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