Bad News Thread

Come and get your Virus everyone. Step right up and get the Bat Virus. 24/7 baby!!!

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Time for an update. This is what I manually pulled (you can check these at (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)

The average of the first 8 days projected over the whole month would give
71,335 (Daily average: 2,301)

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000 (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000 (Daily average: 2,000)

To reach the projections we need the following average for 12/9 - 12/31
Biden: 10,069
Redfield: 7,895
Me: 1,895

We definitely had a jump in cases after the drop before Thanksgiving. At this point, cases are still rising and more states are rising than falling - several of the coastal states at a high rate. I expect the average to increase significantly before it drops. Also, CA and NY are rising quickly and with their populations, they can drive increases when many other states are decreasing. To get to 100,000 we'd need a daily average of 3,547 the rest of the month. I'll update again after data for the 16th.

DayDailyTotalAverageProjection
12/112,6102,6102,61080,910
12/222,8855,4952,74885,173
12/332,8578,3522,78486,304
12/442,63710,9892,74785,165
12/552,19013,1792,63681,710
12/661,11114,2902,38273,832
12/771,52215,8122,25970,025
12/882,59718,4092,30171,335

Cases

View attachment 9641
Weekly Update to predicted deaths in December.

I expect the average to continue to rise as cases rose the prior week (about 5% IIRC) and cases were rising significantly faster than that the week prior.

Current Daily Average: 2,356
Projection with current average: 73,034

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000 (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000 (Daily average: 2,000)

Daily average needed for the rest of the month to reach the projection
(Biden) 250K - 12,766/day
(Redfield) 200K - 9,825/day
100K - 3,942/day
80K - 2,766/day
(me) 62K - 1707/day
 
Weekly Update to predicted deaths in December.

I expect the average to continue to rise as cases rose the prior week (about 5% IIRC) and cases were rising significantly faster than that the week prior.

Current Daily Average: 2,356
Projection with current average: 73,034

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000 (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000 (Daily average: 2,000)

Daily average needed for the rest of the month to reach the projection
(Biden) 250K - 12,766/day
(Redfield) 200K - 9,825/day
100K - 3,942/day
80K - 2,766/day
(me) 62K - 1707/day
WHO is not dying now because were all inside? Think and use your brains everyone. Death is death. Dont be afraid of death.
 
This is dumb, even for you. "Don't be afraid of death"? Are you volunteering?

He does have a bit of a point. Death is part of the human condition and comes to everyone, from the moment you are born. The only thing we can do is postpone it, not stop it. Any loss of human life, is of course sad....the death of a 90 year old that's lived a long a fulfilling life should be mourned, but the loss of a child's life is an absolute tragedy. Our ancestors have had many worse diseases and it was not that long ago that children were taken regularly by small pox, measles and scarlet fever. Our technology has made us arrogant (believing that we have somehow evolved beyond the meat suit), but we haven't really changed that much as a species for the length of our recorded history.
 
He does have a bit of a point. Death is part of the human condition and comes to everyone, from the moment you are born. The only thing we can do is postpone it, not stop it. Any loss of human life, is of course sad....the death of a 90 year old that's lived a long a fulfilling life should be mourned, but the loss of a child's life is an absolute tragedy. Our ancestors have had many worse diseases and it was not that long ago that children were taken regularly by small pox, measles and scarlet fever. Our technology has made us arrogant (believing that we have somehow evolved beyond the meat suit), but we haven't really changed that much as a species for the length of our recorded history.
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And I agree with all of that. I was arguing his continual flair for the dramatic was over the top, (even for him.) There is a very good chance he will not die from COVID and he knows it.
 
This is dumb, even for you. "Don't be afraid of death"? Are you volunteering?
Dumb and dumber is me for sure so no harm or hurt feelings from me. I'm not afraid to die and I'm even less afraid of getting the Rona as my true and only cause of death. I will say if I get attacked by a shark surfing and I die, my chance of having Rona when i die is more likely. Does that make sense?
 
While it is difficult to compare them, the Moderna vaccine seems to have more side effects....being described as "unpleasant' and some grade 3 and 4 level side effects.


Doesn't seem like anything out of the ordinary. Way better than some of the side effects of the medications they advertise on TV, which I won't describe since I'm in mixed company.
 
They really don't want any return to normal even after getting 2 doses of the shot....

What is the point then?

I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated.

If you are vaccinated you are not likely going to catch or transmit it.

Anyway have fun trying to get people to social distance and wear masks, and limit schooling, etc after a vaccines is widely available.
 
What is the point then?

I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated.

If you are vaccinated you are not likely going to catch or transmit it.

Anyway have fun trying to get people to social distance and wear masks, and limit schooling, etc after a vaccines is widely available.

This is the hard part I'm trying to figure out...does this thing disappear by summer (despite that there is no green tier in California, and knowing that kids and certain people won't be able to get the Rona shot [e.g., allergies, cancer patients given the side effects, kids since no approved vaccine]), or do they really attempt to make a run to keep the restrictions going into 2022 because of these people? Part of the answer is do they mandate it (because that will tell us how much cases and hospitalizations drop)....until I know the answer on the mandate I'm not prepared to opine. My gut tells me you are right but by God the Newsom/Gates/Fauci clique are serious about ongoing restrictions.
 
This seems odd to me. Some hospitals in Oregon are waiting days to start giving the vaccine.

----

In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and Colorado acted even quicker, administering the vaccine within hours of receiving it.

In Oregon, Legacy Health was the first hospital system to get the Pfizer vaccine. It arrived Monday. The hospital has yet to provide a timeline as to when it'll start the vaccinations.

On Tuesday, OHSU and Kaiser Permanente received their shipments. OHSU has said it'll start vaccinating its employees Wednesday, but Kaiser says it's waiting until Friday.

----

 
What is the point then?

I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated.

If you are vaccinated you are not likely going to catch or transmit it.

Anyway have fun trying to get people to social distance and wear masks, and limit schooling, etc after a vaccines is widely available.
The science isn’t clear on any of that just yet, and on the apparent open it all up now thought? Ask a long hauler.
 
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