Bad News Thread

N00B said:
Did you forget the Central Valley is part of California and not SoCal. Deaths per million there without the population density of LA.

Fresno alone had 1700+ deaths with a population in the 500k range.
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Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley. Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.

The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state. It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.

So, if they want to compare a high transmission disease to a low transmission disease, I can play that game. They compare FL to CA. I compare LA to Norcal. Neither comparison is at all valid.

In truth, LA did reasonably with the rotten hand they were dealt last fall. Had San Jose gotten the LA or UK variant 4 months earlier, we would have had a rough time, too.
 
dad4 said:
Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.

Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass. They’re close to Mexico, too.

Next try.
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One might think proximity to the boarder would primarily impact those individuals and communities that have exposure to cross border traffic. (% of the community in those areas and relative distance to the boarder relating to likelihood of a boarder impact)

% of population in TX and CA that are Hispanic is approximately 39% for both states, but only one of those states has large population centers near the boarder, CA. In TX the only approximation is El Paso that faired poorly and is dramatically less populated than SoCal.

San Diego Hispanic % of population
34%

Los Angeles Hispanic % of population
47.5%

Fresno Hispanic % of population
49.5%

I’ll take the boarder for $500 as well. Seems to address the difference in San Diego vs Los Angeles and SoCal vs NorCal.
 
dad4 said:
Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley. Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.

The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state. It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.

So, if they want to compare a high transmission disease to a low transmission disease, I can play that game. They compare FL to CA. I compare LA to Norcal. Neither comparison is at all valid.

In truth, LA did reasonably with the rotten hand they were dealt last fall. Had San Jose gotten the LA or UK variant 4 months earlier, we would have had a rough time, too.
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I told you at the beginning. Engineers socially distance as a way of life. I am sure they were elated at all the new delivery options that came out of the pandemic. Most I talk to have ZERO desire to go back to the office. So, yeah, those folks won't spread the virus.
 
dad4 said:
Random just doesn't cut it. There is a branch of math called martingales to handle this.

LA has had about 4.5 million cases. Each one of those is the result of a small number of chance interactions. You end up with a martingale with over 20 million distinct independent variables. And all those independent interactions are random, but with 20 million of them, it averages out.

You don't get a result of 2400 one time and 900 the next, just by luck. It's possible to run the numbers, but we'd be asking whether the probability is 10^-10 or 10^-20.
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Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place. Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable. Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place. We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan. Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse. Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.
 
Grace T. said:
Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place. Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable. Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place. We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan. Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse. Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.
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You really think San Jose is going to end up at 2400 deaths per million? Just like AZ and LA?

I’d take that bet.
 
Grace T. said:
Reading comprehension...but for the vaccine it would eventually
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Not really. Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve. IFR goes down, and fewer people die.

Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate. People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors. This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.

So, no, it isn't all equal. Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.
 
soccer5210 said:
That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.
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Agreed. News skews toward the extremes. What we hear most on the news is definitely not the "norm", or it wouldn't be news. It is problematic (hate that word) that we as individuals tend to be siloed in our microculture and not exposed to the norm of other microcultures within our society. Whatever we hear on the news becomes the "norm" for that culture/group. It really isn't.
 
dad4 said:
Not really. Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve. IFR goes down, and fewer people die.

Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate. People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors. This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.

So, no, it isn't all equal. Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.
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Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.
 
soccer5210 said:
That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.
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I agree. Cheap shots require less effort than clear thinking.
 
Grace T. said:
Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.
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Ps it’s truly awesome that over the last couple weeks there have been reviews and studies questioning the impact of lockdowns, masks have come under question given the constantly shifting cdc guidelines, saint faucis reputation has been tarnished, the lab leak theory is ascendant, even the main stream media is questioning the censorship pressures on science by certain experts and the tech companies, the Cw is embracing that kids were truly short changed over the pandemic, government restrictions around the world even in bastions such as Taiwan have failed....and yet you still hold true to your faith. I am in awe.
 
Grace T. said:
Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.
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Your original argument said nothing about cases. You merely said we would all end up “at the same place”.

I tend to think of “outside the casket“ and “inside the casket“ as two very different places. I very much prefer to remain outside the casket.

If you meant that cases would be the same but deaths would be vastly different, then you ought to have been more careful in your choice of words.
 
dad4 said:
Your original argument said nothing about cases. You merely said we would all end up “at the same place”.

I tend to think of “outside the casket“ and “inside the casket“ as two very different places. I very much prefer to remain outside the casket.

If you meant that cases would be the same but deaths would be vastly different, then you ought to have been more careful in your choice of words.
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the discussion has centered these many months because that’s how you all had framed it. I almost a year ago made the argument that overtime like most viruses this would be better adapted to spread and less towards death plus treatment would improve. If you are finally moving towards deaths are all that matter....hallelujah...progress.

ps under that standard in the us the emergency ended last weekend. Guess we are finally done here. :)
 
Grace T. said:
the discussion has centered these many months because that’s how you all had framed it. I almost a year ago made the argument that overtime like most viruses this would be better adapted to spread and less towards death plus treatment would improve. If you are finally moving towards deaths are all that matter....hallelujah...progress.

ps under that standard in the us the emergency ended last weekend. Guess we are finally done here. :)
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Nice dance.

Garbage logic. You still wrote A and are pretending you meant B.

But nice dance.

Your original point, that everyone will end up in the same place, is trashed of course. First by vaccines, second by treatments, and third by the basic 1-1/R computation for total number of cases. Once it’s all done, your “in the same place” claim has been reduced to living in some counterfactual world where we have no vaccines, do not develop teatments, and never adjust our social behavior.

But really nice dance.
 
dad4 said:
Nice dance.

Garbage logic. You still wrote A and are pretending you meant B.

But nice dance.

Your original point, that everyone will end up in the same place, is trashed of course. First by vaccines, second by treatments, and third by the basic 1-1/R computation for total number of cases. Once it’s all done, your “in the same place” claim has been reduced to living in some counterfactual world where we have no vaccines, do not develop teatments, and never adjust our social behavior.

But really nice dance.
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Now whoS rewriting??? :)I excluded vaccines. I grant you treatments (but only by you finally conceding our argument of a year ago). And your belief that masks and restrictions are possible for years is more of your religion.
 
Grace T. said:
Now whoS rewriting??? :)I excluded vaccines. I grant you treatments (but only by you finally conceding our argument of a year ago). And your belief that masks and restrictions are possible for years is more of your religion.
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It’s actually peer reviewed research that backs up masks, not religion. And none of what I mentioned was restrictions. It was all the kind of behavioral adjustments that societies make over time. Just like we all learned to wear seat belts and wash our hands with soap.

But keep dancing. What color are the sunsets on your fantasy world with no vaccines, no treatments, and no changes to societal norms?
 
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