Bad News Thread

Most of our practices ended over Christmas break.

Contemplating getting some masked 3v3 basketball at one of the courts still open. That or soccer tennis.

Masks outside sound silly to some. SJ is approaching one new case per thousand people per day. That’s high enough for me to stop trying to find the minimum sufficient precaution, and look instead for the maximum endurable precaution. Besides, it reduces the odds that someone calls the cops to yell at us for 6 feet.
 
More bad news on the vaccine front. The sanofi vaccine (an adjuvanted recombinant protein based vaccine) is delayed because they aren't getting the needed response in elderly due to an insufficient concentration of antigen. Best case is that vaccine is available Q4. Our choices are narrowing, particularly for children's vaccines.
 
dad4 said:
Most of our practices ended over Christmas break.

Contemplating getting some masked 3v3 basketball at one of the courts still open. That or soccer tennis.

Masks outside sound silly to some. SJ is approaching one new case per thousand people per day. That’s high enough for me to stop trying to find the minimum sufficient precaution, and look instead for the maximum endurable precaution. Besides, it reduces the odds that someone calls the cops to yell at us for 6 feet.
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One of the things this taught me is how different people really are. I've mentioned my son's classmate last year....other than the backyard he has not been outside the house for 9 months or seen another human soul besides his parents. No doctor's visits, parks, beaches, dentist appointments, haircuts (his mom cuts it) sports practice, school, socially distanced picnics or playdates. The only interaction he has is zoom school or chess club, karate or Kumon on line. His parents don't allow him a phone so he's not in contact with any of the classmates in his current or former school. But from what they say he's still doing fine....an introvert whose just happy as a clam, doesn't want to go back to in person school, and enjoys rolling out of bed in front the camera. My niece, who had the minimum has her own phone and can socialize that way and was free to go to the park by herself or with her sis, still cracked, and during the summer when she wasn't on zoom school.
 
EOTL said:
Perhaps you haven’t spread it (yet), but you and your kind have actively encouraged people who have done exactly that.

I have no victim mentality. It’s those whining about the rules put in place to save lives who have that problem. I am perfectly happy with the efforts CA has made, which is now 40th in mortality rate despite having the highest population densities in the state, and despite the best efforts of a handful of people who are upset that a youth soccer forum isn’t a one-sided Parler-esque Qanon pity party.

How’s the recall petition going BTW?
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I don't believe in recalls for policy decisions, only illegal activity or gross malfeasance. Incredible arrogance and intentional denial of science don't quite get me to gross malfeasance, close though.

My invitation is open to you if you're ever in the neighborhood to visit one of your sites, only condition is you're buying the beer.
 
Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).

 
Grace T. said:
Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).

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I've misplaced my gaiter which was the most comfortable for me to wear without fogging up my glasses. I've been wearing surgical or cloth lately, sounds like I need to stick with those.
 
watfly said:
I've misplaced my gaiter which was the most comfortable for me to wear without fogging up my glasses. I've been wearing surgical or cloth lately, sounds like I need to stick with those.
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I still suspect one of the reasons "masks aren't working" is because people are reusing surgical-cloth or wearing them for too long a period of time (on top of people not wearing them in social situations, impractical to use 24/7 in the home, improper usage, and/or cheating on them because humans have this weird evolutionary thing where we don't like our breathing passages blocked by anything).
 
Grace T. said:
Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).

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Image from Grace’s study. Clearly, don’t bother with bandanas or gaiters.

1607714961778.jpeg
 
Grace T. said:
I still suspect one of the reasons "masks aren't working" is because people are reusing surgical-cloth or wearing them for too long a period of time (on top of people not wearing them in social situations, impractical to use 24/7 in the home, improper usage, and/or cheating on them because humans have this weird evolutionary thing where we don't like our breathing passages blocked by anything).
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It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.

How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world? Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks? Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.

That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.
 
Grace T. said:
Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).

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That's from September and has been discussed here before.
 
dad4 said:
It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.

How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world? Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks? Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.

That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.
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The physical performance of the masks themselves can be measured. What is less certain is the social performance - will people use them appropriately and correctly?
 
dad4 said:
It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.

How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world? Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks? Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.

That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.
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Agree, which despite being labelled anti-mask, is the reason I think we should still wear them....because it's impossible to tell right now. But I do think it's possible (as this study shows) to test my hypothesis (actually, the hypothesis of that PPE engineer I cited a while back) that one of the reasons masks aren't working is because they are getting wet, washed or not replaced often enough. The design of this experiment was pretty good (from what I've been told by peeps in the know) and took into account for the first time human speech as well (should also take into account sneezes and coughs). I'd bet money the results show that we should be doing single (or perhaps double/triple) use...if so a targeted mask approach might be more effective instead of having people wear (and use them out) outside (or worse while driving alone in their cars because they are scared to touch it on and off).
 
espola said:
That's from September and has been discussed here before.
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I don't have a recollection of this one being discussed....we did discuss another one very similar though I could be wrong....my memory isn't as perfect as when I was younger...the difference with this one though was speech.
 
Grace T. said:
I don't have a recollection of this one being discussed....we did discuss another one very similar though I could be wrong....my memory isn't as perfect as when I was younger...the difference with this one though was speech.
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I recognized the graphs right away.
 
I'm all for wearing masks when appropriate, just don't assume they're a panacea, because clearly they're not. Social distancing is probably way more effective.

I question the relevance of both actions though when people make stupid decisions after they know they've been exposed, or have mild symptoms they ignore. Please stay home if you have anything remotely resembling a Covid symptom regardless of severity, or if you been exposed or potentially exposed. Stay home (other than to get a test) until you can confirm you don't have the virus. Don't go out because you think a mask may protect others. IMO opinion its the people that ignore this advice that are the primary drivers of the spread of the virus. Can't prove it, but based upon some of the stories I'm hearing that's what my gut tells me.
 
watfly said:
Stay home (other than to get a test) until you can confirm you don't have the virus. Don't go out because you think a mask may protect others. IMO opinion its the people that ignore this advice that are the primary drivers of the spread of the virus. Can't prove it, but based upon some of the stories I'm hearing that's what my gut tells me.
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Plenty of $$$ being made from CV19 testing. Average cost of a nasal swab test in AZ is $141, in CA $143. In NJ it cost $319. I know more people are getting the free test than not, but many people are paying.

Many people will pay (to include yours truly) in order to avoid quarantine and immediately rule out Covid. I don't necessarily think testing has turned into a side hustle but it is lucrative. That doesn't include other tests that you can get at various clinics in your community that cost $$

A lot of sniffles this time of the year.
 
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