p.s. if you are going to read just 1, read the physicist that wrote to Fauci at the start. It's another example of the scrappy outsider getting it right and absolutely nailing everything (coming waive, failure of containment, China cover up, lab leak, the mutations, the time frame for the start, US outbreak already in progress and running ahead of Italy). Fauci declines to read it on the grounds it's too long. I don't really blame him for that. Even if he cultivated a reputation for reading everyone's emails including some woman who was afraid to get on a plane for work, and even answered her. But still, this physicist just nailed everything while Fauci was flailing.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
I know. The disease itself was a huge drain on the economy, and OZ/NZ avoided that part of the damage. Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically. CA will start doing better as case rates near zero and offices reopen.Dad4
For your benefit:
Australia's economy is now STRONGER than it was before Covid-19
Australia's economy has rebounded much quicker than expected after growing a massive 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year as strict Covid-19 restrictions have been eased.www.dailymail.co.uk
I wonder if we will get our act together on vaccines before the bad weather hits in the fall. I think 617.2 (india/delta) variant has the numbers it needs to be able to grow in the high seroprevalence, low vaccination rate parts of the country- especially when it gets a boost for bad weather.
Erik Nielsen?
Desert Hound
DA
What?
There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.
Latest economic data show red states crushing blue states — and here’s why - Washington Examiner
The good news is our economic recovery from the pandemic is finally underway. The bad news is that it’s going a lot slower in blue states than red states — thanks to foolish big-government policies.This is the inescapable conclusion revealed by the latest jobs and unemployment data.“The...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Opinion | Red and Blue States of Recovery
Joe Biden’s ‘K-shaped’ economy is made in the lockdown states.
www.wsj.com
Red State Recovery, Blue State Recession
A review of current state unemployment rates reveals a stark partisan divide between the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. As the chart below reflects, nine of ten states with the highest recent unemployment rates have a Democratic governor (the tenth is deep-blue...
www.aei.org
Why Blue Places Have Been Hit Harder Economically Than Red Ones (Published 2020)
The different mix of jobs is a big driver, but there are other factors, too.
Red state economies recovering from coronavirus faster than blue states: Stephen Moore
FreedomWorks economist Stephen Moore breaks down economic data in red states and blue states.
etc etc.
What?
There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.
Latest economic data show red states crushing blue states — and here’s why - Washington Examiner
The good news is our economic recovery from the pandemic is finally underway. The bad news is that it’s going a lot slower in blue states than red states — thanks to foolish big-government policies.This is the inescapable conclusion revealed by the latest jobs and unemployment data.“The...
Opinion | Red and Blue States of Recovery
Joe Biden’s ‘K-shaped’ economy is made in the lockdown states.
Red State Recovery, Blue State Recession
A review of current state unemployment rates reveals a stark partisan divide between the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. As the chart below reflects, nine of ten states with the highest recent unemployment rates have a Democratic governor (the tenth is deep-blue...
Why Blue Places Have Been Hit Harder Economically Than Red Ones (Published 2020)
The different mix of jobs is a big driver, but there are other factors, too.www.nytimes.com
Red state economies recovering from coronavirus faster than blue states: Stephen Moore
FreedomWorks economist Stephen Moore breaks down economic data in red states and blue states.finance.yahoo.com
etc etc.
In fairness to him, he has been consistent in saying either go early (though which requires multiple lockdowns and even in places like Taiwan and South Korea failed to completely quell) or don't go very much....Newsom's half-in half-out approach being disastrous.
Seems to already be happening in the UK where cases are rising, but only slightly. Infections delayed through lockdown+India variant- vaccination- weather effect. Their vaccination approach is also slightly different than ours, prioritizing first doses instead of 2nd. deaths and hospitalizations still on the floor.
Desert Hound
DA
By the way what is interesting about the Fauci emails coming to light is this.
He was initially not too concerned about Covid.
Why is that important?
Because the press blamed the Prez at the time for not being concerned enough, didn't do enough etc.
Who is the expert on these matters that advises the Administration?
The press again didn't play neutral observer in all of this. Their reporting for the most part mirrored political talking points. And unfortunately this type of reporting has the terrible effect of dividing the country. But it sells papers and ad revenue...so carry on!
He was initially not too concerned about Covid.
Why is that important?
Because the press blamed the Prez at the time for not being concerned enough, didn't do enough etc.
Who is the expert on these matters that advises the Administration?
The press again didn't play neutral observer in all of this. Their reporting for the most part mirrored political talking points. And unfortunately this type of reporting has the terrible effect of dividing the country. But it sells papers and ad revenue...so carry on!
Desert Hound
DA
Not sure he advocated or don't go very much. He was and has been a strong lockdown proponent.
So much to sort through, particularly long term. It's not just the lockdown restrictions, its also the social policies that were implemented that may not go away, like enhanced unemployment. We pay more than $15 to start at an entry level position and we can't seem to find qualified individuals. And when I say qualified, I mean someone who will show up to work on time and do their job. Seems everyone we look to hire has a restraining order or some criminal record. Those we do hire are only lasting a couple weeks before quitting while maximizing their sick leave during the short time period.What?
There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.
Latest economic data show red states crushing blue states — and here’s why - Washington Examiner
The good news is our economic recovery from the pandemic is finally underway. The bad news is that it’s going a lot slower in blue states than red states — thanks to foolish big-government policies.This is the inescapable conclusion revealed by the latest jobs and unemployment data.“The...
Opinion | Red and Blue States of Recovery
Joe Biden’s ‘K-shaped’ economy is made in the lockdown states.
Red State Recovery, Blue State Recession
A review of current state unemployment rates reveals a stark partisan divide between the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. As the chart below reflects, nine of ten states with the highest recent unemployment rates have a Democratic governor (the tenth is deep-blue...
Why Blue Places Have Been Hit Harder Economically Than Red Ones (Published 2020)
The different mix of jobs is a big driver, but there are other factors, too.
Red state economies recovering from coronavirus faster than blue states: Stephen Moore
FreedomWorks economist Stephen Moore breaks down economic data in red states and blue states.
etc etc.
My biggest concern though is the ramifications to our society from the educational interruption. Particularly for the underprivileged.
Yeah, but not all on him, except to the extent you blame his gullibility. He seemed to believe the Chinese propaganda at first that it was all containable, and then when they switched to lockdown immediately, seemed to buy in 100% to that. Same as he bought into the Chinese explanations about it not being a lab leak.
He's said before go early or (in his mind) not at all if you are concerned about the economy. I agree between those 2 choices he favors go early, go hard.
Incidentally the rules in Nevada right now are even less sciency than California. No masks, bars and indoor dining open, no elevator capacity limits and players tables in the casino open, but night clubs still shut. No valet service, no room service except in select hotels, plastic barriers still up, relentless cleaning of surfaces still up. We know why: They care more about the appearance of safety to sell the casinos to people.
Nevada was perfectly happy to run a continuous covid breeding ground throughout the pandemic. Same as Florida wanted to get the spring break money. Or Louisiana wanting the Mardi Gras money last year.
In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it. It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year. States won’t do it. Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.
In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it. It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year. States won’t do it. Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.
I'm not a constitutional expert but I'm pretty sure our government can't prohibit interstate travel or can implement a nationwide quarantine. Remember that Cuomo had a shit fit when Trump even mentioned banning travel from NY. How many Democrat governors would have tolerated a travel ban imposed by Trump...actually the Republican governors wouldn't have tolerated it either. Unfortunately in the US, responding to a pandemic can't be separated from political ideologies. I don't think your suggestions pass the legal, or reality test.
Let's be perfectly honest here, there is far more correlation between lockdowns and the economy, then there is lockdowns and Covid. At least, in the US and non-island countries.
But Hawaii chose to shoot itself in the head so it's not true states won't do it. They all make a choice. Florida chose to minimize restrictions, particularly those low risk restrictions, which was also a choice. My complaint about Nevada is that it's choices are stupid: it's doing the security theatre but allowed the high risk stuff to go on (even now, post-vaccination there's still a lot of theater).
I agree with Watfly...with federal government even if the courts allow it to pass constitutionally, there was no political way it would have been possible. I personally would have gotten great satisfaction seeing all the well off New Yorkers stuck in New York city during the pandemic, but Cuomo and the Ds would have exploded had Trump tried that.
Not only can the government restrict interstate travel, but they have before. Travel restrictions and travel quarantines during pandemics used to be the norm.
You’re probably right that people would have screamed to no end. But locking down NYC in March 2020 would have meant a lot fewer people died in other states in April and May. Most of the April cases outside of NYC were due to rich New Yorkers flying to vacation homes and bringing the virus with them.
Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions. I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people. You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.
The Right to Travel and National Quarantines: Coronavirus Tests the Limits
www.law.georgetown.edu
Desert Hound
DA
They got SCREWED.
Let me give you one example.
Last spring I went north to play some golf at my CC in Flagstaff. It was April I believe. 2 high schoolers played in our group. I asked them about school. They said school was done. NO internet classes, etc. They said you could take your grade as is, OR do extra work. The extra work could only help and not hurt. I asked why there wasn't any online classes. They stated that a large portion of the student population lived on the Navajo Reservation and had little to no internet connection. So those kids were out of luck.
Flagstaff didn't open much this year for school. Guess which kids still lacked internet access?
Stumbled across this one from New England Journal of Medicine:
They said it better than anyone on Team Virus could (well actually they just have more credibility):
Despite the breadth and allure of travel bans and mandatory quarantine, an effective response to Covid-19 requires newer, more creative legal tools. With Covid-19 in our communities, the time has come to imagine and implement public health laws that emphasize support rather than restriction.
They said it better than anyone on Team Virus could (well actually they just have more credibility):
Despite the breadth and allure of travel bans and mandatory quarantine, an effective response to Covid-19 requires newer, more creative legal tools. With Covid-19 in our communities, the time has come to imagine and implement public health laws that emphasize support rather than restriction.
Desert Hound
DA
Yeah I have been to Vegas and Laughlin in the past month. A lot of safety theatre going on there. Playing poker is interesting. Everyone is in their cubicle.
Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions. I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people. You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.
.The Right to Travel and National Quarantines: Coronavirus Tests the Limits
Yup with the states having power to restrict travel in and out themselves (so long as it applies to their citizens and citizens of other states alike)> federal government restricting international travel> the federal government restricting travel between the states.
The “only quarantine the sick” standard doesn’t work very well for a disease with significant ore-symptomatic transmission. Nor is it even possible to meaningfully define the “least restrictive measure” when you are early in the pandemic. You just do not have the information needed to make that calculation.Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions. I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people. You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.
.The Right to Travel and National Quarantines: Coronavirus Tests the Limits
This is the basic problem with lawyers playing junior epidemiologist. They simply are not qualified to understand the solutions they propose. Most of them have not taken a college level biology class, let alone completed the coursework necessary to understand epidemic growth. It would take years to bring them up to speed, even if they were willing to try.
You're expert rallying again. That's what leads to the disastrous results like 2008 and the pandemic response. The experts are horrible at weighing all the factors. What's more is that they can't weigh all the interests at stake here....that requires not just epidemiologists but field doctors, nurses, business organizations, teachers, PTA (yeah I know...it's supposed to act for the students but has been captured by the teachers unions), economists, pediatricians, psychologists, engineers, the pharmaceutical industry, and yes lawyers (because the lawyers care about our rights). In the end you need the guy who mixes his metaphors to make the right call (but we usually got the self-interested politicians like Trump and Biden, DeSantis and Newsom making those calls). We don't want to rely solely on epidemiologist because the experts only know 1 aspect of the problem and are more often wrong than right because of a variety of factors (institutionalism, tunnel vision, self-preservation, hubris),.
