Bad News Thread

Yeah. We want you to have the mask on so you don't get frostbite in the gulag.

You sure you don't want to cut to the chase and start calling people Nazi when they disagree with you? Leninism is kind of obscure.
PCR is obscure at best. Please continue.
 
We have a 65% vax rate and minimal progress. With a 65% vax rate and a 30% infection rate, daily new infections ought to be near zero. Instead, cases are slowly inching down. Something is going wrong.

That something is impatient fools who relax their behavior so quickly they undo 2/3 of the benefit we get from the vaccine. Then the anti-vax fools copy them and the virus spreads.

Look at you. You go to a HS basketball game which looks like a dress rehearsal for the Placer super spreader event from last summer. Did you learn nothing?
Your behavior is based on the use of the PCR test that does not detect the presence of a virus. The PCR only picks up genetic sequences of corona virus. Doesn't tell us when those genetic sequences showed up in your nasal passage. Not that your credibility can be restored at his point.
 
PCR is obscure at best. Please continue.
The guy who invented the test said his test is not for what's it's being used for today. BTW, he died 2019, right before the Rona. This is insane times we live in. One of my best pals and smartest cats I know, won;t talk to me because he knows he made a huge mistake.
 
The guy who invented the test said his test is not for what's it's being used for today. BTW, he died 2019, right before the Rona. This is insane times we live in. One of my best pals and smartest cats I know, won;t talk to me because he knows he made a huge mistake.
Wonder what the narrative would have been if Mullis was still alive. Is your friend a Lobster?
 
Wonder what the narrative would have been if Mullis was still alive. Is your friend a Lobster?
No bro. This guy is brainwashed unlike anyone I know. I say this with complete sadness too. I swear he's not the same guy I've known for 33 years. He's my mentor so to speak. Super cool bro too. He was born Jewish. His dad lied to him about being power of attorney of his estate, which was valued at around $2,220,000.00. His dad married his evil step mom when he was just 13. His mom left his dad because he was mean and abusive and she met someone who loved her. She moved to Oregon and opened up a Bed & Breakfast. His old man taught him that money is only a tool. Well, the old man died and guess what Bruddah?
 
why do you say Asia had some kind of immunity? Not much evidence for it. You seem to like the theory mostly because it supports your “it’s all impossible” narrative.

It is a simpler explanation to say that Asia has behavior. A set of behavior that reduces R by 75% is enough to handle a disease with R0=3, but not enough to handle a disease with R0=5. So wild type covid can’t grow there because it ends up with Rt below 1. The India variant is more highly transmissible, which results in Rt being above 1.

In bad news for us, a variant which can grow in a 75% behavior reduction can also grow in a 75% immune population.
For the behavior theory to hold up it would need to apply across Asia but somehow exclude the Phillipines and Indonesia. What that behavior is would be very head scratching because it’s not masks....India having very different usage than Japan. The other thing we know from seroprevalence studies in India is 30-50% depending on region were infected in the first wave but did not fall as seriously ill as that rate would suggest in the west. Then there’s also Africa which until now had also been spared (Southern Africa excluded)
 
Those words struck me as well. Science isn't an absolute. Science doesn't come with any inherent authority or credibility, despite what zealots and academics would have you believe. We shouldn't follow the science. We should consider the science, as well as other factors.

Science is clearly at a crossroads given the events of the last year. Science has been damaged like never before, due to the so-called experts. I will say it for the umpteenth time, science can tell you what happened, but it can't predict the future. I'm not saying to ignore science, but take it with a huge grain of salt, and always question it. Be particularly skeptical when the science message is put into the hands of one individual like Fauci. He became the prophet of a new religion. Don't dare to question the prophet.
One has to be skeptical of science due to the fact that so much of it is funded by government. Government usually has a particular point of view and research funding is based on that point of view.

Then take the fact that science is always evolving as researches find/discover/learn new things.
 
I kind of like the politeness mask expectation. So I wear mine, because it costs me nothing and might help.
At this stage for you, it means nothing.

You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.

Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.
 
For the behavior theory to hold up it would need to apply across Asia but somehow exclude the Phillipines and Indonesia. What that behavior is would be very head scratching because it’s not masks....India having very different usage than Japan. The other thing we know from seroprevalence studies in India is 30-50% depending on region were infected in the first wave but did not fall as seriously ill as that rate would suggest in the west. Then there’s also Africa which until now had also been spared (Southern Africa excluded)
Perhaps the Philippines, India, and Indonesia have a behavioral culture and economic status that is subtly different from the culture and economy in China, Korea, and Japan.

I know those six countries are almost indistinguishable, but maybe, just maybe, there is some teeny little distinction that you’ve overlooked.

Like, say, number of people per household and median income per capita. Something obscure you might not notice when visiting.
 
"some selfish people" = most of the world. Be careful. This sounds like a mile marker on the road to misanthropy that one of your consistent supporters has already followed to its natural end.
It’s quite difficult to feel affection for someone who values their morning latte more than their neighbor.

Misanthropy is a natural consequence of that realization. Not a happy consequence, admittedly.
 
At this stage for you, it means nothing.

You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.

Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.
You and I do not agree about the definition of zero. I think of 0.05 and 0.00 as different numbers. You do not.
 
Perhaps the Philippines, India, and Indonesia have a behavioral culture and economic status that is subtly different from the culture and economy in China, Korea, and Japan.

I know those six countries are almost indistinguishable, but maybe, just maybe, there is some teeny little distinction that you’ve overlooked.

Like, say, number of people per household and median income per capita. Something obscure you might not notice when visiting.
It’s not economics. Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines? It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy? Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil. I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around. Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.
 
You and I do not agree about the definition of zero. I think of 0.05 and 0.00 as different numbers. You do not.
As usual you are not good at understanding risk.

I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. That age group constitutes just 3% of all covid deaths. In other words unless you are very sick in that age range you have no real risk.

Add to the fact you have your vaccine that is 95% effective and your risk drops even further.

And add in to the fact that a substantial percentage of the population is now vaccinated drops your risk again.

So outside of having no concept of risk, or virtue signaling, or being paranoid, there is no reason for you to run around wearing a mask.

But you are a true believer...and just a few weeks ago told us all that you would likely wear a mask during upcoming flu seasons. And that kind of outlines your mindset.
 
It’s not economics. Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines? It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy? Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil. I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around. Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.

What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure? You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?

Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes. I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.
 
At this stage for you, it means nothing.

You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.

Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.

Have you figured out how vaccines work yet?
 
What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure? You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?

Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes. I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.
There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.
 
There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.
Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.
 
Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.

I still think BTW if the IFR had been closer to 3%, struck everyone equally and with an R0 of 2 or higher with airborne and surface transmission, we would have gotten a scenario closer to Contagion. At 25%IFR, that movie is not possible...people starve when food production collapses and MREs run out, the power and internet don't stay on, police and fire services (not just garbage) breaks down and there is not shop open (let alone there to reopen) at the end to buy a prom dress.
 
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