Bad News Thread

kickingandscreaming said:
Less than two weeks for the Category 5 hurricane of cases like nothing we've ever seen.

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Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.

I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.

India had a similar reaction. They decided that the eggheads clearly don’t know what they are talking about. Here’s an article from a month ago, explaining that epidemiologists predictions are all wrong, and that Indians have nothing to worry about.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Covid-19 in India: Five predictions that turned out to be false | India News - Times of India

India News: NEW DELHI: It has been a year since India announced one of the most stringent nationwide lockdowns in the world to curb the spread of Covid-19.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Five weeks later, India has the world’s worst case spike and is in desperate need of medical help. Maybe those eggheads knew a little bit after all.
 
Desert Hound said:
He simply is coloring between the lines.. ie he didn't change the plan. I mean I am glad he didn't...but I don't give him credit other than not screwing up the plan in place. In other words you and I and the rest of us are happy he didn't screw up the plan in place right?
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Unfortunately, not screwing up is the new bar for success we've set for our politicians and leadership
 
dad4 said:
Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.

I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.

India had a similar reaction. They decided that the eggheads clearly don’t know what they are talking about. Here’s an article from a month ago, explaining that epidemiologists predictions are all wrong, and that Indians have nothing to worry about.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Covid-19 in India: Five predictions that turned out to be false | India News - Times of India

India News: NEW DELHI: It has been a year since India announced one of the most stringent nationwide lockdowns in the world to curb the spread of Covid-19.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Five weeks later, India has the world’s worst case spike and is in desperate need of medical help. Maybe those eggheads knew a little bit after all.
Click to expand...
The article seems to literally point out the assumptions epidemiologists were wrong about India. What’s more I haven’t seen anyone who nailed the timing and scope of the wave (ethical skeptic with his planting season nailed the time but not scope and he’s not an epidemiologists). They missed entirely when the surge would take place. It’s kind of like your nailing when the 3rd wave would happening but then mixing up Florida and Texas for New York and Michigan.
 
dad4 said:
Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.

I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.

India had a similar reaction. They decided that the eggheads clearly don’t know what they are talking about. Here’s an article from a month ago, explaining that epidemiologists predictions are all wrong, and that Indians have nothing to worry about.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Covid-19 in India: Five predictions that turned out to be false | India News - Times of India

India News: NEW DELHI: It has been a year since India announced one of the most stringent nationwide lockdowns in the world to curb the spread of Covid-19.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Five weeks later, India has the world’s worst case spike and is in desperate need of medical help. Maybe those eggheads knew a little bit after all.
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You should read the article...as you usually say. It doesn't say what you imply above.

They are mainly talking about predictions made in Spring of 2020.

There were 5 predictions the article talks about.

1) In March of 2020 they (some center) predicted HALF of India would by infected by Feb of 2021. As of the article publish date there were at about 12 million.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

2) The Univ of Washington predicted that by Dec of 2020 India would have 490k deaths. As of today India is at 200k.

So the experts were wrong on that predication.

3) The experts said that the virus may not be easily transmitted in hot and humid environments. That prediction was made around the onset of the pandemic. The article points out that has been proven wrong.

So the experts were wrong on that predication.

4) The gov predicted that India would have NO CASES by May 2020.
We know that has been wrong.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

5) They said the lockdowns would be effective in stopping the virus.

This didnt happen either.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

There is NOTHING in that article that says India has nothing to worry about. As a matter of fact the very last sentence in the article says
"A year on, the Covid-19 threat is far from over."

If anything the article points out again that time and time again the experts have been WRONG.
 
watfly said:
Unfortunately, not screwing up is the new bar for success we've set for our politicians and leadership
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Considering who we elect, maybe not screwing up is the best we can hope for ;)

We spend more time voting for people with good looks (Newsome), based on skin color (yeah for diversity!!!), etc, etc. instead of voting for people that present ideas that actually may work.
 
Grace T. said:
The article seems to literally point out the assumptions epidemiologists were wrong about India. What’s more I haven’t seen anyone who nailed the timing and scope of the wave (ethical skeptic with his planting season nailed the time but not scope and he’s not an epidemiologists). They missed entirely when the surge would take place. It’s kind of like your nailing when the 3rd wave would happening but then mixing up Florida and Texas for New York and Michigan.
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Who said it was possible to accurately forecast the exact timing and scope of the wave?

My point is that it is dangerous to dismiss the best advice we have. Yes, the best advice is seriously flawed. But it is still a really bad idea to throw it out.

Remember that it was hound, not me, beating the drum on TX and FL. Don’t assume I said it just because hound wanted to put words in my mouth.
 
dad4 said:
Remember that it was hound, not me, beating the drum on TX and FL. Don’t assume I said it just because hound wanted to put words in my mouth.
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I was beating the drum on those. Because you were saying it was a bad idea to open up, ditch mask mandates, etc. I was also beating the drum because they have had kids in school all year long. CA hasn't. Based on the actual data more than a year in, you may as well have had in person classes in CA.

I am going to beat the drums all day long on education, etc.
 
Desert Hound said:
I was beating the drum on those. Because you were saying it was a bad idea to open up, ditch mask mandates, etc. I was also beating the drum because they have had kids in school all year long. CA hasn't. Based on the actual data more than a year in, you may as well have had in person classes in CA.

I am going to beat the drums all day long on education, etc.
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I find it odd that educators aren’t beating that drum, but just the opposite.
 
watfly said:
Umm, a day late and a dollar short. The majority of the public has been doing this for months.
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Yeah, but there's still that hard core 1/3. Last night at the park while kiddo practicing passed two people in their 50s-60s fully masked on the walking trail. Got the ol "if you aren't wearing a mask don't cross our walking path". But today I guess it's just fine.
 
Grace T. said:
Yeah, but there's still that hard core 1/3. Last night at the park while kiddo practicing passed two people in their 50s-60s fully masked on the walking trail. Got the ol "if you aren't wearing a mask don't cross our walking path". But today I guess it's just fine.
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I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles. Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.
 
watfly said:
I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles. Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.
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It's kind of like the ol soccer you can't impede v. every player is entitled to their space. Was I entering into their space or were they entering into mine? ^\_(;?)_/^
 
watfly said:
I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles. Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.
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It’s just basic politeness. It you see someone with a mask, you know that they, in their view, consider it appropriate. So you put yours on as you pass.

It doesn’t really matter whose risk assessment is most accurate.
 
dad4 said:
So you put yours on as you pass.

It doesn’t really matter whose risk assessment is most accurate.
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I don't carry a mask exercising, I give them their 6 feet. Only idiots think you can get Covid by passing by someone outdoors. Fortunately only a small minority still wear masks outside, which is restoring my faith in people's common sense.

Don't know if you caught the press conference, but I feel so lucky that Joe may allow us to celebrate the 4th of July. I think I can be obedient for another 6 weeks. We get to celebrate both our independence from England and Covid lockdown tyranny.
 
Desert Hound said:
What is amazing is how they have a substantial amount of activities for VACCINATED people needing masks.

BS. If you are vaccinated you are good to go. You are neither at any real risk of catching covid NOR are you a risk to spread covid.
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There is nothing the vaccination that inhibits the virus from entering your body or for it to spread from there to others. The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.
 
Things in Japan not looking too great either. At this rate they'll hit at least their winter peak, which wasn't as bad in comparison to say Europe, but Japan has only vaccinated 1% of its population and it's testing is still really shoddy. Their death rate is still relatively low...we'll see if that changes but their policy of focusing on protecting the elderly did hold down deaths during the winter wave.

www.axios.com

Japan rocked by fourth COVID wave months before Olympics

Bars, department stores and theaters across Japan will be closed for 17 days.
www.axios.com www.axios.com

South Korea despite all their precautions is now near 800 cases per day.

www.worldometers.info

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
espola said:
There is nothing the vaccination that .... or for it to spread from there to others. The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.
Click to expand...

While it hasn't been firmly established yet, like many (most?) vaccines, there is proof growing that vaccination also makes it less likely that you'll pass it on to others, perhaps substantially, though there are breakthrough infections, and breakthrough infections of others.

www.nationalgeographic.co.uk

National Geographic

Explore National Geographic. A world leader in geography, cartography and exploration.
www.nationalgeographic.co.uk www.nationalgeographic.co.uk
 
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