Bad News Thread

[dad4]

I thought you said epidemiology wasn't about predictions? Should I give this as much credence as Osterholm's Armageddon prediction? He's got about 5 weeks remaining (quote published Jan 31).

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

Epidemiology is all about predictions. Osterholm made a bad one. Other people made good predictions.

The other issue is behavior. Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases. There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.

That’s why I predicted that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary. Whenever cases began to get low, we’d open restaurants and our dinners would nudge cases back up. Which we did. The state is currently at 7 daily cases per 100K, and level.

Had we been willing to keep doing what we did in January/February, cases would still be dropping by 50% every 2 weeks. We’d be at about 700 cases per day statewide, and ready to think about how to play whack-a-mole like South Korea.

But, apparently we like restaurants, bars, and gyms more than we hate covid. So covid gets to hang out with us a few months more. Hope the tiramisu was good.

 

[crush]

Epidemiology is all about predictions. Osterholm made a bad one. Other people made good predictions.

The other issue is behavior. Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases. There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.

That’s why I predicted that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary. Whenever cases began to get low, we’d open restaurants and our dinners would nudge cases back up. Which we did. The state is currently at 7 daily cases per 100K, and level.

Had we been willing to keep doing what we did in January/February, cases would still be dropping by 50% every 2 weeks. We’d be at about 700 cases per day statewide, and ready to think about how to play whack-a-mole like South Korea.

But, apparently we like restaurants, bars, and gyms more than we hate covid. So covid gets to hang out with us a few months more. Hope the tiramisu was good.

Dad 4, do you see what I see or are you still stuck on fake numbers & lies? I now see how blind you are and brainwashed to boot. I will think happy thoughts for you and twin EOTL.

 

[crush]

 

[Glitterhater]

Epidemiology is all about predictions. Osterholm made a bad one. Other people made good predictions.

The other issue is behavior. Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases. There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.

That’s why I predicted that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary. Whenever cases began to get low, we’d open restaurants and our dinners would nudge cases back up. Which we did. The state is currently at 7 daily cases per 100K, and level.

Had we been willing to keep doing what we did in January/February, cases would still be dropping by 50% every 2 weeks. We’d be at about 700 cases per day statewide, and ready to think about how to play whack-a-mole like South Korea.

But, apparently we like restaurants, bars, and gyms more than we hate covid. So covid gets to hang out with us a few months more. Hope the tiramisu was good.

I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.

 

[crush]

I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.

They ((fill in the blank)) dont give a sh^t about small business owners and those who think on their own. Dreamers? For get it. Most small business owners left corporate way back in the day and most told those corporate cheaters to "F" off. Now big corp & big tech asses are looking to land the final blow? The losers WHO started this because they lost in 2016 are the real losers. When real losers lose, they cheat so they win and then they can have all power & control. They will use any means necessary to win too, even lie, kill and yes, get all the colors to hate each other. Oh, they love war and death and darkness. Their time is up though so no one should fret. Just go with the Light & truth and you will be declared a winner and will receive big reward. Go with lying and cheating and bad karma will nail your ass.

 

[crush]

MLB is the last stand to divide our country?

 

[dad4]

I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.

You got me and hound to agree.

It's a hard problem. Add in the hairdressers, coffee shops, bookstores, bakeries, and the rest of the little businesses that people seek out when they choose where they want to live. Most of them are in trouble.

We do weekly takeout from local restaurants. No chains. The chains can fend for themselves. I can't justify dine in until we're all vaccinated. But I figure if the bill is the same it ought to help.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Epidemiology is all about predictions. Osterholm made a bad one. Other people made good predictions.

The other issue is behavior. Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases. There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.

That’s why I predicted that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary. Whenever cases began to get low, we’d open restaurants and our dinners would nudge cases back up. Which we did. The state is currently at 7 daily cases per 100K, and level.

Had we been willing to keep doing what we did in January/February, cases would still be dropping by 50% every 2 weeks. We’d be at about 700 cases per day statewide, and ready to think about how to play whack-a-mole like South Korea.

But, apparently we like restaurants, bars, and gyms more than we hate covid. So covid gets to hang out with us a few months more. Hope the tiramisu was good.

Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.

I get it now. Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.

 

[crush]

Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.

I get it now. Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.

Well, it's about dam time bro. We need your voice big time, trust me

 

[dad4]

Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.

I get it now. Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.

Osterholm’s prediction was a media prediction, exaggerated to scare people into acting sensibly.

They apparently didn't learn from the whole "masks don't work for commoners" fiasco.

His comments were not helpful.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Well, it's about dam time bro. We need your voice big time, trust me

There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.

Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.

Leading by example? Hahaha! Please.

Follow the new knowledge? Not if it might affect future campaign contributions.

If leaders on the local level would actually engage their constituents and work with them on ideas to protect the vulnerable, keep businesses open and protect the mental health of children, they actually might have had considerably more success than their method of pushing down sweeping, inflexible and often arbitrary mandates.

 

[dad4]

There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.

Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.

Leading by example? Hahaha! Please.

Follow the new knowledge? Not if it might affect future campaign contributions.

If leaders on the local level would actually engage their constituents and work with them on ideas to protect the vulnerable, keep businesses open and protect the mental health of children, they actually might have had considerably more success than their method of pushing down sweeping, inflexible and often arbitrary mandates.

My comment about Osterholm trying to scare people was NOT praise. His comments discredit the entire field for nothing more than a short term gain.

That said, you wouldn’t like honest leadership on this. You want to protect the vulnerable while keeping things open. The very first thing an honest leader would have done is say that he cannot do both. Within a month he’d be as popular as Walter Mondale.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.

No due diligence is not just awful for business owners. It is tyranny. It is an indictment of our education system.

 

[crush]

No due diligence is not just awful for business owners. It is tyranny. It is an indictment of our education system.

Killing small businesses one small business at a time. I had a checker scold me the other day because I was on my phone talking with mask lower then mouth. I was 6 feet away too. These little liars trying to fool and control the masses with trickery and cheating. This dude was at least 295, 5 8'. I was shocked at his attitude. I said sorry and kept what I wanted to say inside this time. Another lady checker was saying how awesome Jeff B is and how he's changing the world. Those WHO have the controls right now are saying, "STFU, wash your hands, wear a dam mask, STFU some more. Oh, and get the double shot of bat shit and continue to wear the dam mask and continue to STFU. If you obey, things will go back to normal some day when they decide normal is ready." WAFCATI!!!!!

 

[Grace T.]

Cases in Spain have begun to rise again despite restrictions (including Easter travel restrictions) still being in place, though the population has been more defiant of the restrictions than say last spring. This despite a very high seroprevalence at least on par with Los Angeles and New York in some areas. Leaves only a handful of countries like Portugal untouched in Europe by current wave

 

[watfly]

There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.

Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.

Leading by example? Hahaha! Please.

Follow the new knowledge? Not if it might affect future campaign contributions.

If leaders on the local level would actually engage their constituents and work with them on ideas to protect the vulnerable, keep businesses open and protect the mental health of children, they actually might have had considerably more success than their method of pushing down sweeping, inflexible and often arbitrary mandates.

Based on my experience, I see this in part as the difference in being "book smart" and "street smart". In math class 2+2 always equals 4. Dad4 is partially right that "team virus" believes 2+2=5. While it might not equal 5, in the real world 2+2 doesn't always equal 4 because of unseen or uncontrollable variables and or risk factors that impact the equation. Life is not a solvable equation nor is the problem always quantifiable, which is difficult for those that live in an "academic bubble" to understand. This is why with Covid I trusted the opinions of doctors that were actually treating patients over the lab results from an epidemiologist. Real life is more art than science. In an academic or research setting you basically have all the data and have to analyze and synthesize it to reach an opinion. In the business world you rarely have all the data to make a quantifiable decision but instead rely on some data, some gut and some experience. You have to fill in the missing data with subjective estimates. There is a higher sense of accuracy with scientists because their profession is more exacting (2+2=4) and guesstimates aren't tolerated. However, that's a false sense of accuracy because scientists can't account for all the variables in the real world, many of which are quantifiable.

 

[watfly]

Based on my experience, I see this in part as the difference in being "book smart" and "street smart". In math class 2+2 always equals 4. Dad4 is partially right that "team virus" believes 2+2=5. While it might not equal 5, in the real world 2+2 doesn't always equal 4 because of unseen or uncontrollable variables and or risk factors that impact the equation. Life is not a solvable equation nor is the problem always quantifiable, which is difficult for those that live in an "academic bubble" to understand. This is why with Covid I trusted the opinions of doctors that were actually treating patients over the lab results from an epidemiologist. Real life is more art than science. In an academic or research setting you basically have all the data and have to analyze and synthesize it to reach an opinion. In the business world you rarely have all the data to make a quantifiable decision but instead rely on some data, some gut and some experience. You have to fill in the missing data with subjective estimates. There is a higher sense of accuracy with scientists because their profession is more exacting (2+2=4) and guesstimates aren't tolerated. However, that's a false sense of accuracy because scientists can't account for all the variables in the real world, many of which are quantifiable.

are not quantifiable.

 

[Grace T.]

Another 2 year old mask incident.....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379114952208814083

 

[Grace T.]

Michigan seems to be accelerating still though deaths not as much

Michigan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Michigan COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Canada looking not great

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Texas cases still dropping. Florida is flat but with deaths still dropping.

Florida COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Florida COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Texas COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Texas COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[watfly]

Another 2 year old mask incident.....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379114952208814083

WTF is wrong with that flight attendant, kudos to the passengers for standing up for the family.