Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
New Zealand had 2 cases yesterday. It has some days had zero. I think the record recently was 11 due to the hotel outbreak started overseas that kicking cited. Very different than South Korea which is at 500
If SK is hovering at 500, then they have R=1.
NZ has R <1, but nowhere close to R=0. They have occasional seeds, most of which cause no more than 1 or 2 cases. A few cause a mini-outbreak before they are put out. Might be R=0.8?
If you look at US, very few places ever got much above R=1.3.
The difference in effort between R=1.3 and R=0.9 is large, but not huge. You need to find a way to stop about 1/4 of the transmissions that remain. That is all.
That’s why I think moderate measures, if enforced, would be enough. An additional 25% reduction in transmission doesn’t sound impossible.
You just can’t be colossally stupid like Michigan is right now. They had things under control, R=0.87 on Feb 02. So they opened up indoor dining just as b.1.1.7 started to grow. And now they have R=1.6, despite the last 2 months of vaccinations.
That’s not inevitability. That’s just stupid policy.
The issue boils down again to it not being sustainable. Again, the 20 year old unmarried guy who isn't going to go a whole year without. The reason OZ/NZ worked is because they drove down the numbers, prevented new seeds from sprouting, but if 1 got through drove down the numbers again. They aren't in perpetual lockdown (even though the borders are shut like a fortress) so people can periodically relax which is what makes the whole thing tolerable and why they haven't had a mass insurrection despite having a very strong Trumpian-like movement over there themselves in Australia. The fallacy here is that you think this was possible for a year+...it's not, which is why no one has been able to do it, not even the politicians and health experts most in the know and not even yourself who is preaching this.
Based on your perspective. I don't stand in your shoes, nor do you stand in mine.
I'm perfectly happy with how I responded to the pandemic. In hindsight, I wouldn't be any more, or less cautious than I actually was. I feel like our family maintained a good balance. I assume your happy with your approach and felt it was the best decision for you family.
At the end of the day we both achieved the same results in terms of Covid. We both made the decisions that we felt were best for our family. Why can't we all just leave it that. However, you continue to call normal behaviors of others as stupid or idiotic. Why do you still feel so compelled to tell people how to live their lives? Have any of us from so called " team virus" told you how to live your life?
The problem was never the 20 year old single guy wanting to go on a date. We shut him down because he is young and he doesn’t vote. But an indoor gathering of two people is not big enough to worry about. Besides, nine times out of ten, he will want to be in the same woman’s bed again the next night. It’s not much of a transmission vector if he doesn’t want to leave.
The problem is the large indoor gatherings. The kegger in the basement with 50 people. The casino full of 50-70 year olds. The Thanksgiving dinner held inside. The indoor restaurant with 20 different households represented each night. The stay and pay tournament. Most of the country wasn’t, and isn’t, willing to give up that.
a. Neither were you.
b. You have a policing problem then because even the Karens can't distinguish between a 2 person gathering and a family of 8 gathering. It's 2 cars in the driveway.
c. It's not sustainable more than a few months.
d. If your policy is something that no one (not even you) wants to give up, then it's not a policy....it's a fantasy.
Me?
I spent about 12 hours in a hotel over the last 13 months. The rest of the time I have been at home, outside, or masked. If I am with other people, I am outside and masked.
That level of compliance would be fine. Not perfect, but good enough to drive R below 1.
You carved out a personal exception for yourself for a tournament (which in the end got cancelled?). You also work from home. You are middle aged (so not exactly used to partying), presumably married (so have someone to share your needs), introverted, and risk adverse.
You can't have lockdown by veto. Something's important for everyone. For you its a tournament, for someone else it's a business built over a life time.
Hüsker Dü
DA
Like the ones that keep arguing they know better than the experts? The 80’s were known as the “Me generation” that generations indulgences and selfish attitudes pale in comparison to this generation of “FUCK OFF AND DIE IT’S ABOUT ME! ME! ME!”. Instant gratification and short term gains are the law for many these days.
Hüsker Dü
DA
Bitches gonna bitch
Bruddah IZ
DA
Why you mad?
Bruddah IZ
DA
Like your previous post.
Over a half million people are dead because 20% of the country decided that they knew better than thousands of PhDs.
It kind of makes people angry to think about it....
Bruddah IZ
DA
I saw that in your Pissed values and the circle jerk of a thousand PhDip shits.
Desert Hound
DA
You claim to be a math guy and then make (again) unfounded claims like that.
You are a true believer. Despite real world evidence shredding your preferred solutions.. you carry on.
Not much different from trying to talk to the very religious.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Both are cowards
Deborah Birx said much the same thing.
I’ll give you the Fox version, since you won’t believe it if it comes from NYT or WaPo.
Dr. Deborah Birx says most US COVID-19 deaths could have been avoided or ‘decreased substantially’
Former Trump administration White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said in an interview that coronavirus deaths in the U.S. following the initial first wave could have been “decreased substantially” or avoided entirely.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I thought you said epidemiology wasn't about predictions? Should I give this as much credence as Osterholm's Armageddon prediction? He's got about 5 weeks remaining (quote published Jan 31).Deborah Birx said much the same thing.
I’ll give you the Fox version, since you won’t believe it if it comes from NYT or WaPo.
Dr. Deborah Birx says most US COVID-19 deaths could have been avoided or ‘decreased substantially’
Former Trump administration White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said in an interview that coronavirus deaths in the U.S. following the initial first wave could have been “decreased substantially” or avoided entirely.www.fox2detroit.com
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.