you are right. It might go up. We don’t know. But if it does it probably won’t be by much and it might also just stop falling or slow it’s fall. One way the check is to see what happened in Switzerland. Don’t have those figures but they are pretty much on the downslope and without massive government intervention...would be a possible approximate or comp of the worst case...what happened there?
Bad News Thread
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you are right. It might go up. We don’t know. But if it does it probably won’t be by much and it might also just stop falling or slow it’s fall. One way the check is to see what happened in Switzerland. Don’t have those figures but they are pretty much on the downslope and without massive government intervention...would be a possible approximate or comp of the worst case...what happened there?
/https%3A%2F%2Ftf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffiler%2Fe6%2Fba%2Fe6ba8600-5c8e-4b33-8dad-f983531e1052%2Fsars-cov-2-sem-purple_nih-flickr-crop_web.jpg)
Will the Coronavirus Evolve to Be Less Deadly?
History and science suggest many possible pathways for pandemics, but questions remain about how this one will endwww.smithsonianmag.com
From the article -- “Everyone talks about viral evolution” potentially leading to decreased mortality, wrote Wolfe. “But I haven’t seen any conclusive data to support that hypothesis yet.”
Just posting words doesn't explain the mechanism very well. Read the article Grace posted -- it has a more thorough explanation and also points out that there is currently no evidence that it is happening.
If I were looking for a rosy picture along the "natural selection" line, I would wish for a variety of the virus that doesn't make very many people very sick, but still spreads rapidly because many people are resistant to following simple protocols, and -- here's the kicker -- establishes immunity to the killer strains. In the history of vaccinations, Jenner noted that milkmaids who had contracted cowpox (a mild disease in both cows and humans that is usually manifested only in a few runnin sores that heal quickly) were generally immune to smallpox. He then deliberately injected the pus from cowpox sores into willing subjects and almost none of them caught smallpox.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
You mean, like masks? ... No, no. It was just something to stir the pot. Nothing to see here.
Desert Hound
DA
Desert Hound
DA
Desert Hound
DA
And then you have this. More science.
"On multiple occasions during a Thursday press conference announcing the framework for impending stay-at-home orders across California, Gov. Gavin Newsom mostly ducked a series of questions from reporters about whether state officials have hard evidence that new business closures will actually slow the spread of the coronavirus, which is surging in the state."
"After not citing any data or speaking to whether state officials would share new data going forward, Newsom turned it over to Ghaly, who echoed Newsom on restricting mixing before addressing the industry-specific concerns, albeit without any hard data on specific industries such as hair salons."
www.sfgate.com
"On multiple occasions during a Thursday press conference announcing the framework for impending stay-at-home orders across California, Gov. Gavin Newsom mostly ducked a series of questions from reporters about whether state officials have hard evidence that new business closures will actually slow the spread of the coronavirus, which is surging in the state."
"After not citing any data or speaking to whether state officials would share new data going forward, Newsom turned it over to Ghaly, who echoed Newsom on restricting mixing before addressing the industry-specific concerns, albeit without any hard data on specific industries such as hair salons."
Gavin Newsom sidesteps questions on whether data supports new business closures
Neither Newsom nor Ghaly directly answered a reporter's inquiry as to whether business...
www.sfgate.com
Pretty easy equation: Hollywood = Garcetti/Newsom Votes
Desert Hound
DA
Very true. But you forgot donations as well. But that is what you also meant.
The dynamics of this are that the film and television studios threatened to move all their production to Florida. Disney in particular has been upset because of the closure of Disneyland and still has facilities that could be turn keyed in Florida. The state let them resume production because they agreed to test crew weekly. Also they figured people would be upset if they have to stay home and the studios were unable to finish things like crown or mandalorian (and if they allow post it’s hard to draw a line around production) and people had nothing new to watch for months. The union contracts require that you feed crew on set. So, as usually happens, through a series of unintended consequences the so-called experts failed to foresee you get this situation. It’s going to happen again with the vaccine— California has placed production crews and actors in a higher vaccination tier than regular folks (my sons godfather, who is a PD, has already been told it will be mandated by his company). His wife is a teacher. They were arguing the other night that he will get the vaccine before she but I don’t know if that’s in fact true.
And then you have this. More science.
"On multiple occasions during a Thursday press conference announcing the framework for impending stay-at-home orders across California, Gov. Gavin Newsom mostly ducked a series of questions from reporters about whether state officials have hard evidence that new business closures will actually slow the spread of the coronavirus, which is surging in the state."
"After not citing any data or speaking to whether state officials would share new data going forward, Newsom turned it over to Ghaly, who echoed Newsom on restricting mixing before addressing the industry-specific concerns, albeit without any hard data on specific industries such as hair salons."
Gavin Newsom sidesteps questions on whether data supports new business closures
Neither Newsom nor Ghaly directly answered a reporter's inquiry as to whether business...
There’s a lawsuit, I think but not sure out of Kentucky, alleging the state has no scientific basis to close the schools. The state is arguing the test in non religious cases fir these restrictions under state constitutions, most of which guarantee a right to free in person education, should be whether the state has a rational basis to restrict education. The plaintiffs argue since the science at least with respect to elementary schools is clear and therefore there is no rational basis. Iihc the Supreme Court of the us slated to hear the case which might clarify how far states can go in non first amendment circumstances and what they need to do to justify the policy.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Needs a pole
Kentucky case is a religious schools case. It is apparently arguing both: state cannot restrict religious instruction and no rational basis for religious schools. In California newsom already signed a settlement with religious schools but some counties (notably la) are keeping them shut anyway
I suggested that to my daughter's studio owner to install poles at the studio. Right now the owner is running classes outside as cover for the classes running inside. She's consulted with a constitutional attorney so she is prepared for a fight.
Desert Hound
DA
Hüsker Dü
DA
Seems to be a version of “with all due respect”.
Not sure where you get the idea that I have any power in this.
I would have closed restaurants/bars/casinos/etc. in March and kept them shut. Schools, especially elementary, ought to be open.
Instead, casinos are open and schools are shut. It's the exact opposite of what people like me wanted.
Now we are to the point of a stricter lockdown. It would be nice if it were science based and narrowly tailored, but we no longer have time to think things through. We used up that time keeping restaurants open and fighting over masks.
Which leaves us where we are, closing things at random and praying for the best.
Restaurants were never open in LA County or in the City of LA...so please explain your restaurant and bar theory and how it applies to LA County. The only people I see in groups without masks are the homeless.
I really wish Fauci would stay away from media. Issue is nobody is talking about the virus at a national level. We really need consistent messaging. I mean this is leadership 101.
Mask mandates everywhere, the world burning around you and you have the tenacity to say that.
The blue pill is powerful stuff.
Mask mandates vs what people actually do are two different things. But, yeah it would support the notion that mask mandates don't work, but also support the notion that leadership, at all levels, that have downplayed mask efficacy are probably more to blame.
More evidence that masks can't stop outbreaks. In Golden Gate Fields (isn't dad around there?), 200 racetrack workers fell ill (most asymptomatic) despite rigorous sanitation, mask, temp checks and testing. Yes, there were some residents there, but the protocols didn't protect the non-residents either. It's of course possible the masks reduced viral loads or stopped another portion of the workers from getting ill. But either the horses are transmitting it, or the masks didn't help stop it in this circumstance.
How did 200 racetrack workers at Golden Gate Fields get COVID-19?
One week after a COVID-19 outbreak involving hundreds of Golden Gate Fields workers became public, many who tested positive are back to work.www.berkeleyside.com
Or it could be evidence that people are not adhering to the rules and recommendations. No facility is going to come out and say "Oh, we've been really against covid protections".