Bruddah IZ
DA
I'm predicting case numbers up whether asymp or not. Deaths will not significantly correlate. The COVID tracking site is no longer posting recovery numbers.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters? Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US? Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.
I agree it is multifactoral. But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”. Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.
It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing. It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. Same as New York in the 1800s. That’s not luck. It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.
The herd immunity numbers will be lower for a less contagious version of the virus than for a stronger variant. It’s what we may be seeing in New York City right now. There are other possibilities that are worse including: immunity fades over time and vast numbers get reinfected (not much evidence for that right now) or the variant has mutated away from prior immunity (in which case vaccine or no we are all f’d).
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Interesting survey on perceptions by party.
www.brookings.edu
How misinformation is distorting COVID policies and behaviors
Jonathan Rothwell and Sonal Desai share new survey data demonstrating the relationship between misinformation, political bias, and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.brookings.edu
Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?
I think in the case of Canada and Vermont the issue there is few and no cities. If your covid policies are dependent on housing then since we can’t turn on a dime it’s not really covid policy. You could just as easily say the cities are f’d either way so why do anything.
Goalpost moved. You were the one complaining about any indoor dining. Oregonians are surely at least as conscientious as the Germans.
Ps Canada is plateaued at about 3000 cases per day right now.
Yes, of course we are. That's our point, cumulative is all that matters at the end of the day. Would you give your students a grade or judge their overall results based on only one test? or would you look at their cumulative work and the results of all their tests?
You can slice and dice time periods to your hearts content in an attempt to prove your point, but its only the overall results that matter. Our whole point is that while some lockdown policies may have a temporary effect, over the long term the results are going to be virtually the same because Covid will always find its path. I think many of us believe, based on the evidence, that restrictions only drag the pandemic out. The only good reason for restrictions is to prevent spikes that overwhelm our hospitals. Whereas, the economic and social impacts of restrictions are dramatic.
Of course, Covid is only a part of overall public health policy and there are many other impacts to consider...not that I'm going to convince you that we should consider costs/benefits. Although, at least you've now become convinced, better late than never, that kids should be back in school.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Is it really "housing policy" that creates it? Or, do immigrants flow in from countries where our housing policy and opportunities to make a living are so great they will leave their homes for the opportunity to experience our housing policy. I'd say it's our insatiable desire for cheap labor and relatively open borders that drive it. All the housing policy in the world won't solve that.
I still believe that indoor dining and indoor dinner parties spread covid. The CDC agrees. Almost all epidemiologists agree. This is not a controversial opinion.
I am amused that you say “moving the goalpost” when I talk about data gathering techniques. Data gathering is a prerequisite for analysis. If you want to think, you need something to think about.
Do I really need to clarify that a restaurant with very few customers spreads less covid than a restaurant that is full?
So in summary, if the housing policy was in place long before the Covid policy was developed, one could conclude that it’s not the housing policy at fault, but the Covid policy.
Therefore a one size fits all Covid Policy is flawed for various reasons, one being the housing situation.
It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration. We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for. As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.
”Kick them all out” would work. “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.
”Pack them like sardines” does not work. Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines. And it made us sick.
That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt. And it’s a good argument.
It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.
Bruddah IZ
DA
What makes the variant stronger?
So in other words you’d be in favor of indoor dining just so long as not that many people use it. Why then grouse about California opening up 25%? Too high?
More contagious.
Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?
Bruddah IZ
DA
If you're assuming that COVID policies are good. And they're not. Mask are not regulated to achieve the intended effect. Not surprising that cases are high when faulty mask are on the market....COSTCO!! Crowds have always been potential breeding grounds for respiratory diseases. In my 3 years on the U.S.S. Midway we never experienced any such diseases that jeopardized our mission or inhibited daily operations. Awful housing policy? Whatever, show me the correlation between corpse and cases. Otherwise your math isn't worth the hysteria.