War in Ukraine soon?

[tenacious]

There are four possible outcomes....the fifth a Putin victory where he replaces the Ukrainian government with a friendly one that takes control of the Ukraine is almost gone (it requires taking out Zelensky and there being no viable replacement that steps up for the Ukrainian government). One, there is a negotiated offramp which by definition will involve some concessions from Ukraine. Two, a prolonged occupation of all or part of the country (partitioned) with a war that goes on for months if not years including an insurgency in the Russian held areas. Three, Putin is overthrown and Russia leaves with minimal concessions. Four, an escalation which brings the West and Russia into direct conflict and on brink of nuclear exchange.

Time is not on Putin's side. The Russian economy has only begun its collapse and its going to get to Great Depression levels there. The body bags are going to begin to flow back. And with time every day he's spending billions of dollars to keep the offensive going while the Ukrainian side can replace its much less extensive materials from the west. The longer this goes on options 1 and 2 become less likely and 3 and 4 become more likely.

Yea I agree with your assessment, although I don't know that this going to nuclear war is realistic. Putin can bloviate, but the reality is he's dependent on Chinese investment to keep his economy going. And from a the new found unity of the Western Powers to the potential of a worldwide recession that could threaten Xi's hold on power... I see very few positives in all of this from the perspective of the Chinese. Especially if Putin starts seriously talking about nuking China's customer base.

Russian Mothers Say Their Sons Sent to Ukraine as 'Cannon Fodder'

"We were all deceived, all deceived. They were sent there as cannon fodder. They are young. They were unprepared," one Russian mother said.

www.newsweek.com

 

[watfly]

Remember when:

How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

It does not take a Tom Clancy-like effort to imagine the unthinkable

theweek.com

I say send the MIG's in, we need to stop tip toeing around Putin and his war crimes. I realize it apples and oranges, but I think we have to stop worrying about provoking Putin. He needs to be dealt with. I'm also in favor of a humanitarian no fly zone. Putin is a pussy with nuclear weapons.

 

[tenacious]

Remember when:

How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

It does not take a Tom Clancy-like effort to imagine the unthinkable

theweek.com

I say send the MIG's in, we need to stop tip toeing around Putin and his war crimes. I realize it apples and oranges, but I think we have to stop worrying about provoking Putin. He needs to be dealt with. I'm also in favor of a humanitarian no fly zone. Putin is a pussy with nuclear weapons.

Idk... at this point Putin seems on track to lose? Even his own people are upset with him and the way things are going.

If we let Polish jets landing at American military bases kill thousands of Russian soldiers stuck in the convoys- that could spiral off in a bad direction. We'd lose any hope of China's support, and also likely the Europeans who are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.

 

[blam]

No one outside the PRC payroll cares about Falun Gong the way you do.

To the rest of us, they're harmless. Some middle aged women who like doing Tai Chi with a bit of spiritualism on the side.

What are you afraid of? They are about as threatening as a sorority girl with healing crystals.

Actually, you tell me why Falun gong is so anti China. My first potential interaction with Falun gong may have been a meeting at UCSD. I knew too little about Chinese exercises then to know if it was Falun gong or just an exercise group. I only attended one meeting so I dont know and at that time, I have never heard of Falun Gong.

But for sure a few years later I used to pick up the free newspaper in order to improve my Chinese reading and that was a publication from Falun Gong. The ton of anti Communist propaganda was overwhelming. Propaganda becasue many of its accusations then like organ harvesting was completely false and did not pass common sense test. (I could see the potentiality of these as isolated cases of a corrupt official gone rogue but to present the news as official government policy did not pass common sense, the country could generate a while lot more sustainable wealth through technology, construction, trade etc. etc. than organ harvesting).

Of course, I still continue picking up the free paper from Falun gong to try to improve my Chinese.

 

[blam]

Really? You want free choice to be taken away? Everyone here, including you, is free to post and express their own opinions unlike in other countries.

Actually, you would be surprised. Just last week, I received my first facebook posting removed. It was a link to a video describing a peer reviewed scientific article regarding how covid mrna vaccines is altering the dna of liver cells.

Governments allow free speech as long as the speech has no material impact. You should know in the US itself, during the 1920s and 30s when the communist movement was strong, the US government did censor Communist publications.

Chomskys book called manufacturing consent is a book that explains how the government control the media and is alternative to censorship. Its an eye opening book. Manufacturing consent is even more powerful than censorship. Censorship can provoke the exact opposite intended consequence.

 

[blam]

I'm trying to follow your logic here. So because of the trail of tears 200 years ago you don't want to call out China for anything? Hmm...

Anyway, I spent a couple days in Kashgar in China's Southern Xinjiang province a few years back... and propaganda or not it was pretty crazy. Barbed wired fences around gas stations, in stead of regular police officers they wear full riot gear with shields and batons (and wow are there a lot of them), and of course random checkpoint stops every 100 miles or so on all the highways.

That said, life in China isn't that bad if you're an ethnically Han Chinese. Sort of like Pre-Civil war life in America under Jackson or Polk was pretty good if you were a white European. Which is sort of why I personally would say there is no one better than America to point out the folly of exploiting minorities, and don't just write it off as empty spin.

I did not say anything about not calling out China. What I am saying is that if China really want to land grab these regions and keep them for centuries, then China should follow the footsteps of Polk and Jackson by integrating these regions into China instead of making autonomous regions like what the Communists like to do. These would include eradicating their local culture and language and moving large population into the region. Building reservation camps so that the indigneous can be repopulated just like what Jackson did. Now, this is if their goal is land grab them like what Polk and Jackson wanted. Why create self governing autonomous regions unless they have a different objective?

 

[WestOfFive]

I did not say anything about not calling out China. What I am saying is that if China really want to land grab these regions and keep them for centuries, then China should follow the footsteps of Polk and Jackson by integrating these regions into China instead of making autonomous regions like what the Communists like to do. These would include eradicating their local culture and language and moving large population into the region. Building reservation camps so that the indigneous can be repopulated just like what Jackson did. Now, this is if their goal is land grab them like what Polk and Jackson wanted. Why create self governing autonomous regions unless they have a different objective?

China’s military hierarchy has long fretted that modern Chinese men, raised in “one child” families, lack the martial vigour to wage war. An influential 2010 paper by Admiral Luo Yuan railed against the “bad phenomenon” of effeminate men as an imminent disaster to the nation-state. Xi himself has said the collapse of the Soviet Union was because “no one was man enough” to hold it together.

 

[watfly]

Idk... at this point Putin seems on track to lose? Even his own people are upset with him and the way things are going.

If we let Polish jets landing at American military bases kill thousands of Russian soldiers stuck in the convoys- that could spiral off in a bad direction. We'd lose any hope of China's support, and also likely the Europeans who are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.

Yeah I hear you. My concern is that Putin flattens Ukraine and kills 100's of thousands before he "loses". I'm not even sure what Putin loses looks like. He doesn't seem to care if he becomes a pariah to the world or even Russians. I don't know that anything other than him being overthrown is a Putin loss. In my mind Ukraine winning is only temporary. I'm afraid that he may use tactical nuclear because it may be the only way to achieve a military victory. Best case is he cruise missiles, thermo and cluster bombs the shit out of Ukraine.

No real good solutions here.

 

[tenacious]

I did not say anything about not calling out China. What I am saying is that if China really want to land grab these regions and keep them for centuries, then China should follow the footsteps of Polk and Jackson by integrating these regions into China instead of making autonomous regions like what the Communists like to do. These would include eradicating their local culture and language and moving large population into the region. Building reservation camps so that the indigneous can be repopulated just like what Jackson did. Now, this is if their goal is land grab them like what Polk and Jackson wanted. Why create self governing autonomous regions unless they have a different objective?

Well I guess the first issue is China is a signatory member of the Geneva Convention and therefor the nations leaders would be criminally liable for the consequences, should they break the treaty and ever want to do some travel abroad.

Also, just for kicks since I would add that if the Chinese are into culturally cleansing colonized territory as your suggesting, I’m not sure pre-industrial revolutionary figures like Jackson and Polk were all that successful models for them to follow. Better examples would be Stalin’s purges, Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao’s Cultural Revolution, the Japanese sacking of Manchuria.

 

[tenacious]

Yeah I hear you. My concern is that Putin flattens Ukraine and kills 100's of thousands before he "loses". I'm not even sure what Putin loses looks like. He doesn't seem to care if he becomes a pariah to the world or even Russians. I don't know that anything other than him being overthrown is a Putin loss. In my mind Ukraine winning is only temporary. I'm afraid that he may use tactical nuclear because it may be the only way to achieve a military victory. Best case is he cruise missiles, thermo and cluster bombs the shit out of Ukraine.

No real good solutions here.

Yeah I agree, no great solutions. The best we can hope for is to make this miserable and expensive enough for Putin that future strong men check themselves, before they wreck themselves.

 

[Desert Hound]

"Buy an electric vehicle" is not a viable option

It isnt viable on a large scale right now. If magically everyone had an electric car...we do not have the infrastructure for charging the vehicles...and more importantly we don't have enough fossil fuel power plants to power these "clean" vehicles.

 

[Grace T.]

If it happens it's a substantial escalation and not sure the cooler heads will be able to beat back the calls for a no fly zone.

White House warns Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday warned of the potential for Russia to use chemical weapons in Ukraine after Moscow alleged the United States was housing biological weapons in Ukr…

thehill.com

 

[espola]

It isnt viable on a large scale right now. If magically everyone had an electric car...we do not have the infrastructure for charging the vehicles...and more importantly we don't have enough fossil fuel power plants to power these "clean" vehicles.

If everyone magically had an electric car, everyone would magically have a solar system to charge it.

 

[dad4]

If it happens it's a substantial escalation and not sure the cooler heads will be able to beat back the calls for a no fly zone.

White House warns Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday warned of the potential for Russia to use chemical weapons in Ukraine after Moscow alleged the United States was housing biological weapons in Ukr…

thehill.com

Self-declared cooler heads had their way in ‘45, ‘56 and ‘68. We abandoned hundreds of millions of people in Eastern Europe by bending whenever and wherever Russia pushed.

Cooler heads had their way in Aleppo, Libya, and Grozny. It doesn’t seem to work. Wagging a finger while buying their oil is not a winning strategy.

The thing that actually worked was standing up to the Soviets and matching their buildup. There is a reason the first cold war ended under Reagan and not Carter.

 

[watfly]

If everyone magically had an electric car, everyone would magically have a solar system to charge it.

And an updated panel at their home or apartment with multiple outlets to plug into. Having done a number of commercial installations at our low electrical use properties, I'm doubting we have enough roof space for panels to power everyone's electric vehicles without massive solar farms in the desert.

 

[blam]

If it happens it's a substantial escalation and not sure the cooler heads will be able to beat back the calls for a no fly zone.

White House warns Russia could use chemical weapons in Ukraine

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday warned of the potential for Russia to use chemical weapons in Ukraine after Moscow alleged the United States was housing biological weapons in Ukr…

thehill.com

Did you get the news that bio labs financed by the US were found in Ukraine? I have avoided the mainstream media this time so I am not sure if this is being reported by the CNNs. Or did the CNN publish a news report only for the purpose to debunk the claim instead of reporting the claim. Especially during war time, I expect propaganda from both sides. Just checking.

 

[Grace T.]

Self-declared cooler heads had their way in ‘45, ‘56 and ‘68. We abandoned hundreds of millions of people in Eastern Europe by bending whenever and wherever Russia pushed.

Cooler heads had their way in Aleppo, Libya, and Grozny. It doesn’t seem to work. Wagging a finger while buying their oil is not a winning strategy.

The thing that actually worked was standing up to the Soviets and matching their buildup. There is a reason the first cold war ended under Reagan and not Carter.

I agree we need to take the pain and cut off their oil. It's going to have a profound and shockingly underestimated push on our own economy (I'm seeing some projections of eight dollar gas by summer by some colleagues in the oil and gas industry). At eight dollars, it has waves out including food prices, shipping, commodities, and even if it is worth it for some people to work. I agree it's a price that needs to be paid.

But as we've discussed, I don't think a no fly zone is the way to go unless you want to risk nuclear war. By definition it involves NATO airstrikes into Russian territory (including the loss of civilian life since Putin will no doubt use the insurgent playbook and stick his anti air in schools), and likely Russian retaliation with cruise missiles and the first line combat aircraft it has in reserve to Poland, Germany, and Romania to hit airbases. You are gambling that the US action will cause the generals to throw out Putin, because we've established already Putin is not acting fully rationally.

It's ok to argue this position, but let's be clear you are arguing for a risk of nuclear war now (as opposed to the future where Putin, who may not even be there, may or may not be in a position to take further action considering how bankrupt he is and will grow weaker year over year). That's just funny coming from you, considering how both COVID freaked you were and how concerned about climate change (even a few tactical nukes is a climate disaster).

I had a tangentel touch BTW on the Reagan cold war policy. My college advisor was one of the people who contributed to the evil empire speech. I was pro hawk. But even the hawks were clear that if we had militarily intervened with actual troops or planes in Hungary and Czechoslovankia, WWIII would be a likely result.

 

[what-happened]

If everyone magically had an electric car, everyone would magically have a solar system to charge it.

yes of course, right after the little fairy sprinkles fairy dust everywhere.

 

[espola]

yes of course, right after the little fairy sprinkles fairy dust everywhere.

You are forgetting the "magically" part -- it works both ways.

On a more serious note, the rate of growth of home solar systems in California approximates the rate of growth of electric car sales.

 

[thirteenknots]

I agree we need to take the pain and cut off their oil. It's going to have a profound and shockingly underestimated push on our own economy (I'm seeing some projections of eight dollar gas by summer by some colleagues in the oil and gas industry). At eight dollars, it has waves out including food prices, shipping, commodities, and even if it is worth it for some people to work. I agree it's a price that needs to be paid.

But as we've discussed, I don't think a no fly zone is the way to go unless you want to risk nuclear war. By definition it involves NATO airstrikes into Russian territory (including the loss of civilian life since Putin will no doubt use the insurgent playbook and stick his anti air in schools), and likely Russian retaliation with cruise missiles and the first line combat aircraft it has in reserve to Poland, Germany, and Romania to hit airbases. You are gambling that the US action will cause the generals to throw out Putin, because we've established already Putin is not acting fully rationally.

It's ok to argue this position, but let's be clear you are arguing for a risk of nuclear war now (as opposed to the future where Putin, who may not even be there, may or may not be in a position to take further action considering how bankrupt he is and will grow weaker year over year). That's just funny coming from you, considering how both COVID freaked you were and how concerned about climate change (even a few tactical nukes is a climate disaster).

I had a tangentel touch BTW on the Reagan cold war policy. My college advisor was one of the people who contributed to the evil empire speech. I was pro hawk. But even the hawks were clear that if we had militarily intervened with actual troops or planes in Hungary and Czechoslovankia, WWIII would be a likely result.

At some point this has to stop.
And what I mean by stop is the Kowtowing to China, Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba
and all of the lunatic activists in this once Great Country called America.
Someone needs to tap the current " resident " in the snot locker and tell him
to grow up and take the lead or take your sorry team home and let someone
else give it a go as an ADULT.
The " resident " likes to talk tough, but his pacifist actions speak volumes.
Putin is no pussy, he's a piece of crap thug tyrant, but he's no pussy.
He's got the " resident's " number and it's 0.
Biden is a Bronze team with AYSO players behind him up against a battle
hardened LaLiga team with piss bottles at the ready.
The tough talk only lasts so long.

 

[whatithink]

It isnt viable on a large scale right now. If magically everyone had an electric car...we do not have the infrastructure for charging the vehicles...and more importantly we don't have enough fossil fuel power plants to power these "clean" vehicles.

Agree, I stayed in a hotel for Surf Thanksgiving and I was shocked that it didn't have a single EV charging station. We love to drive and need to drive in this vast country of ours. Being able to pull in, fill up and head out again is just part & parcel of that. Having to pull in and wait for an hour or 2 to charge up to go again , or queue to wait for a spot to then wait ... ain't going to hack it.