War in Ukraine soon?

I turned on the TV for the first time in many many months yesterday and was I in for a surprise. The Ukraine issue is almost undisputedly pro Ukraine....while me in front of my screen trying to understand the issue on both sides reached the conclusion that this issue is so difficult to determine who is at fault.

It reminds of the Iraq war. I recall when Secretary Powell took some drawings to the UN, so many people were pro War and those not pro War were labelled as unpatrotic. For many then, it was obvious that the right thing to do was to go to Iraq. I am seeing the ghost of this mass consensus today.

I am glad I am in good company, this professor probably had the most influence on my thinking, alongside Russia Today. Having watched RT many times, I do sometimes ask if maybe I have been brainwashed by them without realizing, is there somethign on the other side that I am missing, but glad to see that I am in good company.

I do not think Putin wants to keep Ukraine. It is too hard as the majority are not pro Russian. He may keep parts that are pro Russian but the rest are unsustainable and too costly to hang on to. Colonialism ended in the 60s. The more profitable way to colonize another nation is through neo Colonialism (wiki it if you do not know what it means).

 
blam said:
I turned on the TV for the first time in many many months yesterday and was I in for a surprise. The Ukraine issue is almost undisputedly pro Ukraine....while me in front of my screen trying to understand the issue on both sides reached the conclusion that this issue is so difficult to determine who is at fault.

It reminds of the Iraq war. I recall when Secretary Powell took some drawings to the UN, so many people were pro War and those not pro War were labelled as unpatrotic. For many then, it was obvious that the right thing to do was to go to Iraq. I am seeing the ghost of this mass consensus today.

I am glad I am in good company, this professor probably had the most influence on my thinking, alongside Russia Today. Having watched RT many times, I do sometimes ask if maybe I have been brainwashed by them without realizing, is there somethign on the other side that I am missing, but glad to see that I am in good company.

I do not think Putin wants to keep Ukraine. It is too hard as the majority are not pro Russian. He may keep parts that are pro Russian but the rest are unsustainable and too costly to hang on to. Colonialism ended in the 60s. The more profitable way to colonize another nation is through neo Colonialism (wiki it if you do not know what it means).

Click to expand...
Colonialism ended in the 1960s? News to me.

I can think of at least a half dozen places held by a foreign power against the will of the local population.

Belarus, Tibet, Xinjiang, Burma, Darfur, and Western Sahara come to mind.

Interestingly, in four of the six cases, China supplied the weapons to suppress the local population. Maybe President Pooh Bear will fund this civilian slaughter by buying oil instead of his usual pattern of simply supplying guns. Mix it up a little.
 
blam said:
I turned on the TV for the first time in many many months yesterday and was I in for a surprise. The Ukraine issue is almost undisputedly pro Ukraine....while me in front of my screen trying to understand the issue on both sides reached the conclusion that this issue is so difficult to determine who is at fault.

It reminds of the Iraq war. I recall when Secretary Powell took some drawings to the UN, so many people were pro War and those not pro War were labelled as unpatrotic. For many then, it was obvious that the right thing to do was to go to Iraq. I am seeing the ghost of this mass consensus today.

I am glad I am in good company, this professor probably had the most influence on my thinking, alongside Russia Today. Having watched RT many times, I do sometimes ask if maybe I have been brainwashed by them without realizing, is there somethign on the other side that I am missing, but glad to see that I am in good company.

I do not think Putin wants to keep Ukraine. It is too hard as the majority are not pro Russian. He may keep parts that are pro Russian but the rest are unsustainable and too costly to hang on to. Colonialism ended in the 60s. The more profitable way to colonize another nation is through neo Colonialism (wiki it if you do not know what it means).

Click to expand...

Obviously we're both guessing... but the only reason I doubt Putin is planning on taking the whole cake and not parts... is he's already got control of the parts and his war machine is rolling on. IMHO he's too smart to waste money, prestige and more sanctions laying waste to the rest of the country in order to just give it up. Letting NATO $$$ rebuild a ravaged post war Ukraine is the equivalent of Ukraine joining NATO as a charter member right on his doorstep.

That might be where this ends, but that's not what he wants.
 
tenacious said:
Well first let me say my heart goes out to all the suffering this crisis has caused.

However for the sake of my stock fund I'm trying to get my head around where this Ukraine situation is at. Seems to me Putin is planing on taking over Ukraine. And the west is going to reply by financing freedom fighters which will make this whole affair a costly quagmire... that goes on for weeks? Months? I would guess probably not months (from a stock market perspective) as soon it will be spring and by next winter Europe will have found alternative sources of fuel so they aren't over the barrel.

As for the endgame? Yikes. From Putins perspective it's probably better to take the country. Just as simple observation of Russian leaders; if his ego demands he be seen as on the level of Lenin, Stalin or any of the 'Greats', then he got to take territory? So I expect if he's gone this far he's in it to win it. That said, having watched my own country dabble in the 'nation building' racket... funding an expensive and unpopular war is going to cause a lot of unrest at home. It sure seems like there is a lot of room for events to spiral out of his control.
Click to expand...
For the limited purposes of your stock portfolio here, you should plan on a prolonged stagflationary event. Gas hasn't even hit the highest its going to go and the summer will be rocky. Other things such as food prices will be impacted since Russia and the Ukraine are such big producers of wheat and the competition in the world will now be for remaining stocks (such as the US/Canada). "Buy an electric vehicle" is not a viable option for most working class Americans. This will dump gasoline (excuse the pun) on the inflationary pressures the West is undergoing, and what's worse is the fed seems reluctant to do anything since the war began because it knows the world is teetering on a recession.
 
Grace T. said:
For the limited purposes of your stock portfolio here, you should plan on a prolonged stagflationary event. Gas hasn't even hit the highest its going to go and the summer will be rocky. Other things such as food prices will be impacted since Russia and the Ukraine are such big producers of wheat and the competition in the world will now be for remaining stocks (such as the US/Canada). "Buy an electric vehicle" is not a viable option for most working class Americans. This will dump gasoline (excuse the pun) on the inflationary pressures the West is undergoing, and what's worse is the fed seems reluctant to do anything since the war began because it knows the world is teetering on a recession.
Click to expand...

How do you know that they know that?
 
Grace T. said:
For the limited purposes of your stock portfolio here, you should plan on a prolonged stagflationary event. Gas hasn't even hit the highest its going to go and the summer will be rocky. Other things such as food prices will be impacted since Russia and the Ukraine are such big producers of wheat and the competition in the world will now be for remaining stocks (such as the US/Canada). "Buy an electric vehicle" is not a viable option for most working class Americans. This will dump gasoline (excuse the pun) on the inflationary pressures the West is undergoing, and what's worse is the fed seems reluctant to do anything since the war began because it knows the world is teetering on a recession.
Click to expand...
There are four possible outcomes....the fifth a Putin victory where he replaces the Ukrainian government with a friendly one that takes control of the Ukraine is almost gone (it requires taking out Zelensky and there being no viable replacement that steps up for the Ukrainian government). One, there is a negotiated offramp which by definition will involve some concessions from Ukraine. Two, a prolonged occupation of all or part of the country (partitioned) with a war that goes on for months if not years including an insurgency in the Russian held areas. Three, Putin is overthrown and Russia leaves with minimal concessions. Four, an escalation which brings the West and Russia into direct conflict and on brink of nuclear exchange.

Time is not on Putin's side. The Russian economy has only begun its collapse and its going to get to Great Depression levels there. The body bags are going to begin to flow back. And with time every day he's spending billions of dollars to keep the offensive going while the Ukrainian side can replace its much less extensive materials from the west. The longer this goes on options 1 and 2 become less likely and 3 and 4 become more likely.
 
dad4 said:
Colonialism ended in the 1960s? News to me.

I can think of at least a half dozen places held by a foreign power against the will of the local population.

Belarus, Tibet, Xinjiang, Burma, Darfur, and Western Sahara come to mind.

Interestingly, in four of the six cases, China supplied the weapons to suppress the local population. Maybe President Pooh Bear will fund this civilian slaughter by buying oil instead of his usual pattern of simply supplying guns. Mix it up a little.
Click to expand...

I think I mentioned in previous posts before. I am not familiar with the list you have there, but whenever I hear anti china propaganda, the first thing comes to mind : Falun gong propaganda.

I have wasted enough time chasing after the truths and found them to be debunked eventually that nowadays anything anti China I would assume is nothing more than propaganda. Some people would say these are CPC propaganda but CPC propaganda really sucks and they are boring. Ever watched CGTN or CCTV or whatever they call it? There are real life bloggers living in China who are doing a much better job than Chinese government propaganda.

As far as Tibet and Xinjiang, these are autonomous regions. The left, aka the communists like to do this to preserve the local culture. This is in constrast to colonization of places like California, Arizona, Texas where they are completely repopulated. Polk and Jackson are who we should learn from. They are the masters.
 
blam said:
I think I mentioned in previous posts before. I am not familiar with the list you have there, but whenever I hear anti china propaganda, the first thing comes to mind : Falun gong propaganda.

I have wasted enough time chasing after the truths and found them to be debunked eventually that nowadays anything anti China I would assume is nothing more than propaganda. Some people would say these are CPC propaganda but CPC propaganda really sucks and they are boring. Ever watched CGTN or CCTV or whatever they call it? There are real life bloggers living in China who are doing a much better job than Chinese government propaganda.

As far as Tibet and Xinjiang, these are autonomous regions. The left, aka the communists like to do this to preserve the local culture. This is in constrast to colonization of places like California, Arizona, Texas where they are completely repopulated. Polk and Jackson are who we should learn from. They are the masters.
Click to expand...
No one outside the PRC payroll cares about Falun Gong the way you do.

To the rest of us, they're harmless. Some middle aged women who like doing Tai Chi with a bit of spiritualism on the side.

What are you afraid of? They are about as threatening as a sorority girl with healing crystals.
 
blam said:
The irony is these are all very good healthy choices forced on the Russians. No coke and mcdonalds and ikea. Wow! Wished we could do that here.
Click to expand...

The apple, microsoft and chip bans are the ones that hurt. The Russians are going to have to use their Tianjing Handibooks. Between having to wear knock off counterfeit clothes, not being able to travel, not being able to get a job, not having their iphones and the possibility of conscription, the teens and 20 somethings will not be happy, and that's always where it starts.
 
blam said:
The irony is these are all very good healthy choices forced on the Russians. No coke and mcdonalds and ikea. Wow! Wished we could do that here.
Click to expand...
Really? You want free choice to be taken away? Everyone here, including you, is free to post and express their own opinions unlike in other countries.
 
blam said:
I think I mentioned in previous posts before. I am not familiar with the list you have there, but whenever I hear anti china propaganda, the first thing comes to mind : Falun gong propaganda.

I have wasted enough time chasing after the truths and found them to be debunked eventually that nowadays anything anti China I would assume is nothing more than propaganda. Some people would say these are CPC propaganda but CPC propaganda really sucks and they are boring. Ever watched CGTN or CCTV or whatever they call it? There are real life bloggers living in China who are doing a much better job than Chinese government propaganda.

As far as Tibet and Xinjiang, these are autonomous regions. The left, aka the communists like to do this to preserve the local culture. This is in constrast to colonization of places like California, Arizona, Texas where they are completely repopulated. Polk and Jackson are who we should learn from. They are the masters.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to follow your logic here. So because of the trail of tears 200 years ago you don't want to call out China for anything? Hmm...

Anyway, I spent a couple days in Kashgar in China's Southern Xinjiang province a few years back... and propaganda or not it was pretty crazy. Barbed wired fences around gas stations, in stead of regular police officers they wear full riot gear with shields and batons (and wow are there a lot of them), and of course random checkpoint stops every 100 miles or so on all the highways.

That said, life in China isn't that bad if you're an ethnically Han Chinese. Sort of like Pre-Civil war life in America under Jackson or Polk was pretty good if you were a white European. Which is sort of why I personally would say there is no one better than America to point out the folly of exploiting minorities, and don't just write it off as empty spin.
 
Grace T. said:
There are four possible outcomes....the fifth a Putin victory where he replaces the Ukrainian government with a friendly one that takes control of the Ukraine is almost gone (it requires taking out Zelensky and there being no viable replacement that steps up for the Ukrainian government). One, there is a negotiated offramp which by definition will involve some concessions from Ukraine. Two, a prolonged occupation of all or part of the country (partitioned) with a war that goes on for months if not years including an insurgency in the Russian held areas. Three, Putin is overthrown and Russia leaves with minimal concessions. Four, an escalation which brings the West and Russia into direct conflict and on brink of nuclear exchange.

Time is not on Putin's side. The Russian economy has only begun its collapse and its going to get to Great Depression levels there. The body bags are going to begin to flow back. And with time every day he's spending billions of dollars to keep the offensive going while the Ukrainian side can replace its much less extensive materials from the west. The longer this goes on options 1 and 2 become less likely and 3 and 4 become more likely.
Click to expand...

Yea I agree with your assessment, although I don't know that this going to nuclear war is realistic. Putin can bloviate, but the reality is he's dependent on Chinese investment to keep his economy going. And from a the new found unity of the Western Powers to the potential of a worldwide recession that could threaten Xi's hold on power... I see very few positives in all of this from the perspective of the Chinese. Especially if Putin starts seriously talking about nuking China's customer base.

www.newsweek.com

Russian Mothers Say Their Sons Sent to Ukraine as 'Cannon Fodder'

"We were all deceived, all deceived. They were sent there as cannon fodder. They are young. They were unprepared," one Russian mother said.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Remember when:
theweek.com

How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

It does not take a Tom Clancy-like effort to imagine the unthinkable
theweek.com theweek.com

I say send the MIG's in, we need to stop tip toeing around Putin and his war crimes. I realize it apples and oranges, but I think we have to stop worrying about provoking Putin. He needs to be dealt with. I'm also in favor of a humanitarian no fly zone. Putin is a pussy with nuclear weapons.
 
watfly said:
Remember when:
theweek.com

How Trump's Syria strike could spiral into World War III

It does not take a Tom Clancy-like effort to imagine the unthinkable
theweek.com theweek.com

I say send the MIG's in, we need to stop tip toeing around Putin and his war crimes. I realize it apples and oranges, but I think we have to stop worrying about provoking Putin. He needs to be dealt with. I'm also in favor of a humanitarian no fly zone. Putin is a pussy with nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...

Idk... at this point Putin seems on track to lose? Even his own people are upset with him and the way things are going.

If we let Polish jets landing at American military bases kill thousands of Russian soldiers stuck in the convoys- that could spiral off in a bad direction. We'd lose any hope of China's support, and also likely the Europeans who are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
 
dad4 said:
No one outside the PRC payroll cares about Falun Gong the way you do.

To the rest of us, they're harmless. Some middle aged women who like doing Tai Chi with a bit of spiritualism on the side.

What are you afraid of? They are about as threatening as a sorority girl with healing crystals.
Click to expand...

Actually, you tell me why Falun gong is so anti China. My first potential interaction with Falun gong may have been a meeting at UCSD. I knew too little about Chinese exercises then to know if it was Falun gong or just an exercise group. I only attended one meeting so I dont know and at that time, I have never heard of Falun Gong.

But for sure a few years later I used to pick up the free newspaper in order to improve my Chinese reading and that was a publication from Falun Gong. The ton of anti Communist propaganda was overwhelming. Propaganda becasue many of its accusations then like organ harvesting was completely false and did not pass common sense test. (I could see the potentiality of these as isolated cases of a corrupt official gone rogue but to present the news as official government policy did not pass common sense, the country could generate a while lot more sustainable wealth through technology, construction, trade etc. etc. than organ harvesting).

Of course, I still continue picking up the free paper from Falun gong to try to improve my Chinese.
 
Jar!23 said:
Really? You want free choice to be taken away? Everyone here, including you, is free to post and express their own opinions unlike in other countries.
Click to expand...

Actually, you would be surprised. Just last week, I received my first facebook posting removed. It was a link to a video describing a peer reviewed scientific article regarding how covid mrna vaccines is altering the dna of liver cells.

Governments allow free speech as long as the speech has no material impact. You should know in the US itself, during the 1920s and 30s when the communist movement was strong, the US government did censor Communist publications.

Chomskys book called manufacturing consent is a book that explains how the government control the media and is alternative to censorship. Its an eye opening book. Manufacturing consent is even more powerful than censorship. Censorship can provoke the exact opposite intended consequence.
 
tenacious said:
I'm trying to follow your logic here. So because of the trail of tears 200 years ago you don't want to call out China for anything? Hmm...

Anyway, I spent a couple days in Kashgar in China's Southern Xinjiang province a few years back... and propaganda or not it was pretty crazy. Barbed wired fences around gas stations, in stead of regular police officers they wear full riot gear with shields and batons (and wow are there a lot of them), and of course random checkpoint stops every 100 miles or so on all the highways.

That said, life in China isn't that bad if you're an ethnically Han Chinese. Sort of like Pre-Civil war life in America under Jackson or Polk was pretty good if you were a white European. Which is sort of why I personally would say there is no one better than America to point out the folly of exploiting minorities, and don't just write it off as empty spin.
Click to expand...

I did not say anything about not calling out China. What I am saying is that if China really want to land grab these regions and keep them for centuries, then China should follow the footsteps of Polk and Jackson by integrating these regions into China instead of making autonomous regions like what the Communists like to do. These would include eradicating their local culture and language and moving large population into the region. Building reservation camps so that the indigneous can be repopulated just like what Jackson did. Now, this is if their goal is land grab them like what Polk and Jackson wanted. Why create self governing autonomous regions unless they have a different objective?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top