Vaccine

The 1:6 ratio is not an estimate. It's the vax to unvax ratio of positive tests per Capita.

You may not like it, but it's still true. Most covid cases are unvaccinated. And, as a result, most covid transmission is coming from unvaccinated people, too.

Why do I care? About 900,000 Americans have died of this. Another 2000 each day. That is who we could have been protecting, but decided not to.

short of literal government force , how do you suggest we protect the unvaccinated from dying ?
 
short of literal government force , how do you suggest we protect the unvaccinated from dying ?
The unvaccinated are not the only ones dying.

There are also covid deaths among vaccinated people with weakened immune systems or other health issues. Maybe 10% or so of deaths?

The health care libertarians here don't like to talk about that part.
 
The unvaccinated are not the only ones dying.

There are also covid deaths among vaccinated people with weakened immune systems or other health issues. Maybe 10% or so of deaths?

The health care libertarians here don't like to talk about that part.

that’s all true , but you didn’t really answer the question

so how do we protect those people in the 10% category ?
 
that’s all true , but you didn’t really answer the question

so how do we protect those people in the 10% category ?
The unvaccinated are not the only ones dying.

There are also covid deaths among vaccinated people with weakened immune systems or other health issues. Maybe 10% or so of deaths?

The health care libertarians here don't like to talk about that part.
At least we know what we are debating now. The relevant subject is the 10%.

and the relevant question is to what extent are we going to reorganize society to protect that 10%. Certainly things should be reorganized particularly in nursing homes to the extent they need to be protected and inconvenienced. But when you are talking kids being inconvenieced that’s a totally different story.

I have skin in the game on this for 3 generations and a god child in the 4th. For my parents I totally see it justified that they should get boosted and wear 95s and limit their social activities. For me it is reasonable even having had it to get vaxxed. For my 20 year old goddaughter she is not at risk and youth is too fleeting to restrict her life any further particularly with the authoritarian rules at some colleges. For my kids it is monstrous to insist they continue to sacrifice their childhood for the sake of my parents.

we don’t reorganize society for flu. We don’t do it for rsv where kids are vulnerable. We certainly shouldn’t for the glass staff 10%
 
starting To think this is a small but vocal minority that aren’t able to move on

I know Twitter isn’t an accurate representation of the public at large , but read the replies to Newsom tweet yesterday announcing the mask mandates are going away. There are certainly people who never want mask mandates to go away
How many do you think are Members of an activist group funded by the Newsome Re-Election fund?
 
vaxx appears to have held up great against omicron in NYC. for cases even. rate per 100K is cases vaxx/vaxx and cases novaxx/novaxx, ie correctly normalized to meaningfully compare the rates. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page

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Um, what are you trying to convey?

The reporting bias of those without risk or symptoms in the absence of mandatory testing?

Or.. that a sliver of the population is more likely to get infected by a virus novel to their immune system sans vaccination or prior infection.

Both should appear obvious to all adults, if not… well, Darwin’s theory will work things out in the end.
 
What causes the vax peak to be earlier than unvax? I see it other places, too.

Dunno, but you could bin the fraction of the total area under the curve at different time intervals to see if the profiles were in fact really different. If so, one simple idea is that the vaxx population is heterogenous, like if there was a more susceptible sub-group that had been vaxxed 8-10 months ago but not boosted, something like that. That could front load the profile.
 
Um, what are you trying to convey?

The reporting bias of those without risk or symptoms in the absence of mandatory testing?

Or.. that a sliver of the population is more likely to get infected by a virus novel to their immune system sans vaccination or prior infection.

Both should appear obvious to all adults, if not… well, Darwin’s theory will work things out in the end.

Convey....the vaxx held up well against omicron in New York city, like I said. It curbed cases. Reporting bias.....so, your hypothesis is that vaxxed people hide positive test results or something? OK. I guess I tend to think that anybody who goes to the trouble to get a logged lab test probably has a reason, from tracking cases through a team to blood O2 dipping below 90. Sliver....which population? NYC? Something like 2-3 million cases in a city of 8-9 million. Maybe that counts as a sliver, but in that case you should not get first dibs on the pie at Thanksgiving. Darwin...always has his say. But much of the erstwhile selective pressures in this particular go around are being exerted post-reproduction. Modification, but no descent.
 
Um, what are you trying to convey?

The reporting bias of those without risk or symptoms in the absence of mandatory testing?

Or.. that a sliver of the population is more likely to get infected by a virus novel to their immune system sans vaccination or prior infection.

Both should appear obvious to all adults, if not… well, Darwin’s theory will work things out in the end.
You’re not going to get there by starting with the political conclusion and back filling the logic.

The question is real. Why are vax case rates peaking earlier? You can see it in the curves. NYC unvax case rate is still rising while their vax rates are dropping.

Vax/unvax reporting bias doesn’t really wash as an explanation. Even if only 10% of vax cases get reported, that just forces the curve lower. It doesn‘t change the peak timing unless you have some reason that the reporting bias would change over time. To explain those curves, you would have to have the scale of reporting bias change by 30% or so over 2 weeks. Seems highly unlikely.

More likely there is something with less than even mixing of populations. vax folks being exposed to other vax folks. unvax being exposed to other unvax. Or something else I can’t think of.
 
You’re not going to get there by starting with the political conclusion and back filling the logic.

The question is real. Why are vax case rates peaking earlier? You can see it in the curves. NYC unvax case rate is still rising while their vax rates are dropping.

Vax/unvax reporting bias doesn’t really wash as an explanation. Even if only 10% of vax cases get reported, that just forces the curve lower. It doesn‘t change the peak timing unless you have some reason that the reporting bias would change over time. To explain those curves, you would have to have the scale of reporting bias change by 30% or so over 2 weeks. Seems highly unlikely.

More likely there is something with less than even mixing of populations. vax folks being exposed to other vax folks. unvax being exposed to other unvax. Or something else I can’t think of.
How much earlier? My thought would be that an unvaccinated person is less likely to test than a vaccinated person and will only test after symptoms become reasonably severe while those who are vaccinated are likely to test as soon as they have mild symptoms. Although, I can't imagine it would push things out much more than a week, if that. I have to wonder if the testing of asymptomatic people is creating some strange results considering you can test positive weeks after you have gotten over the virus.
 
Sooo kids suffer for the sake of adults who can’t/won’t take care of themselves?

Maybe a health mandate is in order over masking kids.

What was that obesity factor amongst severe Covid affects again?
Are you fat-shaming the obese? Where’s their freedom? Is there a body type that should be seen as ideal? Maybe we could start youth clubs to promote such ideas and to groom out the undesirables that may hinder our great American destiny! Eh Jojo?
 
Are you fat-shaming the obese? Where’s their freedom? Is there a body type that should be seen as ideal? Maybe we could start youth clubs to promote such ideas and to groom out the undesirables that may hinder our great American destiny! Eh Jojo?
It like turnabout is fair play…..it’s funny coming from you. Because reducing obesity would save more lives than masking kids ever would.

oh wait, its my body my choice right? Until it’s not….
 
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