Vaccine
- Thread starter Multi Sport
- Start date
thirteenknots
SILVER ELITE
The " New " mask mandate only applies to Rino/Democrats.
Use it generously as the TRUTH is brought forth.
The American public can do without the constant
squealing that is about to ensue.
Use it generously as the TRUTH is brought forth.
The American public can do without the constant
squealing that is about to ensue.
Yeah, we are talking about your NYC graph.
Vax peak is more than a week before unvax peak. It’s a 5 day gap for San Jose. They aleady did the work of graphing by cases per 100K.
Best guess I have so far is if there was a lot of immunity developing among vaccinated people early in the omicron wave. People who were exposed to enough virus to wake up the immune response, but not enough to get sick.
I don’t have a way to test it, though.
Yup, the question is the right one to start with.
You feel you’ve ruled out the question and moved on. I don’t think you’ve really explored that question.
Yeah, we are talking about your NYC graph.
Vax peak is more than a week before unvax peak. It’s a 5 day gap for San Jose. They aleady did the work of graphing by cases per 100K.
Best guess I have so far is if there was a lot of immunity developing among vaccinated people early in the omicron wave. People who were exposed to enough virus to wake up the immune response, but not enough to get sick.
I don’t have a way to test it, though.
So your best guess is under reported cases (lack of testing ‘it’s just allergies’ or in-home unreported tests ) amongst the vaccinated community earlier in the omicron wave.
Care to circle back to the question?
“What is it about the testing itself that would explain the difference?”
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
Have a 17 year old son. Make multiple pies.
So show me how it’s done. Explore your theory. Give an explanation for why in home tests might move the case peak.
Your question has no answer. There is nothing about testing itself that can explain the difference.
A stable bias would not move the peak right or left. Not up or down.
To move the peak right or left, you would need a testing bias which changes on the same time scale that the omicron wave itself changes. Half life or doubling time of 7-14 days. What makes you think we had that?
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
for what's its worth, i'm inclined to agree that, particularly at this point in the pandemic, vaxxed vs unvaxxed groups are highly reflective of deep personality traits, like in the way psychologists use the term, not some kind of judgement. no big surprise. and those traits dictate behavior as well obviously. so could there be skew in reporting time between the groups big enough to effect large population data as you are suggesting? basically unvaxxed being more prone to tough it out so to speak if i follow you. sure, i could see it. the interesting follow on would then be whether you'd think that would affect the total number of cases between the two groups, rather than just the timing of reporting. And if so, in what way?
One corruption in the data, at least in California, is anyone declining to state their vaxx status or whose vaxx status is indeterminate is lumped into unvaxxed. If tested, I certainly would decline to state (I was asked this question, as well as to mask, at a routine DUI check point....I declined both requests). Don't know how other states handle that.
A consistent reporting delay at least points in the right direction.
So, team panic worries more, gets tested early, has an earlier reported peak. Team virus ignores it, gets tested late, has a later reported peak.
If true, it would bump the reported case rate up for vaccinated, because they’d be catching more of the mild cases.
Not sure if it is the right time scale. Omicron has a pretty short incubation period. That makes it hard to squeeze in a week long delay without the patient recovering and skipping the test entirely. If that is happening, the unvax case rate would be underreported, and the unvax hospitalization/case ratio would be over estimated. (because you are underestimating the denominator.)
what-happened
GOLD
It's embarrasing how behind we are in evolution/understanding of the science. Canada has been doing this for months, their docs figured this out a long time ago. Other countries as well.This gets back to LONG TERM STUDIES.
We are still learning stuff.
Now they are thinking of extending the time period between shots to minimize heart issues.
This amongst many reasons is why you don't mandate a vaxx. This is why you don't mandate the young who have no risk to take a vaxx.
CDC Considers Upping Time Between Shots to Cut Risk of Heart Issues
The CDC is weighing changes to vaccine guidance to increase the time between doses due to the risk of heart inflammation.www.breitbart.com
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I think unvaxed positive tests underreport unvaxed cases. That's rather meaningless on its own since a reliable test will never over-report actual cases. I have no idea by how much it underreports as I believe it depends on how severe most cases get for unvaxed. That's hard to know. My thinking is that the more severe the "average" case is for an unvax individual, the less it will underreport as more will be motivated to get treatment and end up taking a test. I'll add that this is just a thought and I have not looked at the data.
You don’t think there was a significant number of home testing going on during the Omicron peak?
Never said it would move the date but would definitely have an impact on how you’ve categorized the positivity rate amongst categories if you have a significant number of the population that isn’t reporting Test results.
Hard to say. SCC only had a 3-5 day lag. It’s hard to find a 3-5 day lag on a graph broken into 7 day chunks. You’re left speculating about why the green line splits off from the red in early January. Not very solid either way.
Do you have the same data reported daily?
are testing sites asking for VAX status?
Some of them are. For example, when my kid got tested at the Ralphs they asked him both if symptomatic and if vaccinated. It's part of the questionnaire.
I do not believe there are enough at home tests being produced to explain the low case rate among unvaccinated. The supply is an order of magitude too small for that.
Vax case rates are about 85% below unvax. Do we see an 85% decline in vaccinated use of PCR tests?
US is still running about 1.5 million PCR tests per day, about the same as November 2021. (It got higher during the Christmas travel season.). No 85% decline, or anything close.
There is a lot of at home testing, but I think that is mostly people trying to add a safety check before a dinner party or sleep over. It does not seem to have replaced PCR testing.
Ok I’ve never been asked this
No, that's all they post. But as far as a 7 day chunks the peeks are identical