Vaccine

dad4 said:
To me, it’s not obvious at all, in either direction.
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Why isn't it obvious that there isn't a benefit to a healthy child? The data is overwhelming, so much that most develped countries are taking a completly different approach than we are, from dosing to masking, etc. There are other, riskier things to the healthy U14 crowd than covid. It appears to me that the hangup with most parents and vaccines are mandates. CA is the leading nanny state. Let parents make that choice, especially in light of other public health issues.

5-14 year olds are more likely to die of motor vehicle accidents (10x), suicide(6.5x), homicide (5x), and drug OD (1x). Those rates go higher (except for moto vehicle accidents) for 15-24 yr olds.

Omicron has changed the calculus for many things. Strategies need to adjust as needed. We are far removed from APR 2020.
 
dad4 said:
You are essentially comparing 93 short hospital stays against 12 deaths. And you are concluding that the deaths are obviously the smaller issue.
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Object here. You know it's not just a hospital stay. It involves a recuperation period for quite a long time when heavy athletics is not advised. It's possible the person may not be able to participate in high end athletics (and we don't know if the various soccer and other sports problems are either tied to myocarditis in the virus or athletics). It could also involve permanent heart injury or lead to other heart conditions years down the line. For someone trotting out long COVID, you seem remarkable unconcerned by this.

Yeah, you can argue that COVID virus carries the same risk but there's some evidence floating around that (particularly with moderna) the vaccine risk may be more substantial

And if transmission isn't stopped by the vaccine, you are also subjecting to them to two (instead of just 1 natural infection) risk events.

Side editorial here: as this continues to go on, you increasingly seem to be lashing out and/or losing your temper.
 
blam said:
My kid got covid omicron, and I am fine.

I only got my first shot last July. Then developed such huge discomfort on my arm. It has gotten better but still feel it a bit.

Not sure if I should proceed with my 2nd dose. I don't want to reexperience that issue with my arm. Besides, by the time I am ready for it, this whole thing may be over.

Any advice?

I am leaning to just skipping this thing now that the highest risk member of my household who is out a lot have had covid and it did't impact me.

btw, not saying there is anything wrong with the vaccine. the nurse who gave that shot to me may have used a needle that is too long. may have hit my nerve etc. etc. and that is what is causing the soreness many many many months later. and yes, i have seen doctors for it and no one figured out why yet. and they prefer to treat it separately as a symtom rather than to tie it to the vaccine.
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You should talk to your doctor since the answer in part may depend on your risk profile and what the doctor thinks actually happened to your arm.
 
Grace T. said:
Object here. You know it's not just a hospital stay. It involves a recuperation period for quite a long time when heavy athletics is not advised. It's possible the person may not be able to participate in high end athletics (and we don't know if the various soccer and other sports problems are either tied to myocarditis in the virus or athletics). It could also involve permanent heart injury or lead to other heart conditions years down the line. For someone trotting out long COVID, you seem remarkable unconcerned by this.

Yeah, you can argue that COVID virus carries the same risk but there's some evidence floating around that (particularly with moderna) the vaccine risk may be more substantial

And if transmission isn't stopped by the vaccine, you are also subjecting to them to two (instead of just 1 natural infection) risk events.

Side editorial here: as this continues to go on, you increasingly seem to be lashing out and/or losing your temper.
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From your article:

”All of the cases were clinically mild, and the adolescents were hospitalized for an average of three days. None were readmitted during 30 days of follow-up.”

That is considerably less severe than death- even if the person has to quit sports as a result.

Do not read this as support or opposition to school vaccine requirements. I just think you have not made the case that the heart inflammation risk outweighs the risk to the student. Not a slam dunk in either direction, which may be why different countries are going in different directions.
 
dad4 said:
From your article:

”All of the cases were clinically mild, and the adolescents were hospitalized for an average of three days. None were readmitted during 30 days of follow-up.”

That is considerably less severe than death- even if the person has to quit sports as a result.

Do not read this as support or opposition to school vaccine requirements. I just think you have not made the case that the heart inflammation risk outweighs the risk to the student. Not a slam dunk in either direction, which may be why different countries are going in different directions.
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Again basic math. If the vaccine is no where near 100 effective in blocking risk of infection (even if say we give you the benefit of the doubt and say fifty percent, which so far no data seems to support), by vaccinating you are exposing students to two potential myocarditis risks (one from the vaccine and one from the infection). The only way this works out to make sense is if the vaccine is good at reducing myocarditis in natural infection and the risk from vaccination is less than myocarditis risk naturally....so far the data doesn't support that....and it certainly 100 percent doesn't support that for boosters beyond the initial shot, which is why many more countries are reluctant to recommend boosters for this age group.
 
dad4 said:
From your article:

”All of the cases were clinically mild, and the adolescents were hospitalized for an average of three days. None were readmitted during 30 days of follow-up.”

That is considerably less severe than death- even if the person has to quit sports as a result.

Do not read this as support or opposition to school vaccine requirements. I just think you have not made the case that the heart inflammation risk outweighs the risk to the student. Not a slam dunk in either direction, which may be why different countries are going in different directions.
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The child argument is an interesting on. You are right, as more data comes out (myocarditis from vaccine/infectinos) the more polarizing it becomes. Even now, as data from vaccine induced inflammation is starting to be really assessed, it's pointing in the direction of less harm than more harm. The covid infected data has always been what way...less harm for healthy kids. The issue now is becoming more political and ethical.

Medium and long-term safety data about vaccines just isn't available. Children and young people have a remaining life expectancy of 55 to 80 years. Unknown harmful long-term effects are far more consequential for the young than for the elderly. This is where the mandates fall apart. Telling people to vaccinate their Ulittle with a unnaproved vaccine just doesn't make sense, especially now. IT's crazy talk really. And with states trying to pass legislation that makes it legal for organizations to provide medical care for a minor without parental consent.... That's even more ludicrous. Imagine living in that world. The argument to vaccinate kids to protect adults is silly as well and borderline unethical.

If more kids were suffering from severe disease then of course things would be different.
 
Grace T. said:
Again basic math. If the vaccine is no where near 100 effective in blocking risk of infection (even if say we give you the benefit of the doubt and say fifty percent, which so far no data seems to support), by vaccinating you are exposing students to two potential myocarditis risks (one from the vaccine and one from the infection). The only way this works out to make sense is if the vaccine is good at reducing myocarditis in natural infection and the risk from vaccination is less than myocarditis risk naturally....so far the data doesn't support that....and it certainly 100 percent doesn't support that for boosters beyond the initial shot, which is why many more countries are reluctant to recommend boosters for this age group.
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Grace, the “basic math” in this case is about four years beyond anything you took.

Also, your numbers are completely wrong on booster effectiveness against omicron. You can keep saying “40%“ or “50%”, but that doesn’t make it true. CDC is putting it at 82% or 90%. 90% is hospitalization. 82% is doctor visit. (urgent care)

www.cdc.gov

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines ...

This report describes COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness time frames among people who received their first and second doses of the vaccine series, and effectiveness of third vaccine doses during both Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
dad4 said:
Grace, the “basic math” in this case is about four years beyond anything you took.

Also, your numbers are completely wrong on booster effectiveness against omicron. You can keep saying “40%“ or “50%”, but that doesn’t make it true. CDC is putting it at 82% or 90%. 90% is hospitalization. 82% is doctor visit. (urgent care)

www.cdc.gov

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines ...

This report describes COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness time frames among people who received their first and second doses of the vaccine series, and effectiveness of third vaccine doses during both Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
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Wow you broke my Orwellian translator on this one. First you lead with the subtle insult despite always playing the victim. Then you fail to explain how the equation (which admittedly is very simplified) is wrong. Next the 40/50 numbers were the ones posted 10 weeks out for boosters from Europe (not just one vaccine…depending on the weeks out it’s anywhere from 5/25% for the adult pfizer full course). Next you ignore the prior post I put up on why even those numbers are inflated. Then you cite the cdc which is laughable considering all the bad science and propaganda they put out, especially in light of the fact kids boosters didn’t go through the normal vetting procedures and there have been fda resignations over those shots. There doesn’t appear to be a covidian propaganda you don’t like. Finally rather than transmission numbers (which is what’s relevant if you are talking subjecting an individual to a risk event) you shift the goalposts to hospitalizations and doctor visits. Man two years out and you dig deeper and deeper into your fantasies…you went from a thinker to now clutching that blue pill tightly as the narrative collapses all around you. Literally shaking my head at what probably is the worst post you’ve ever posted since this began.
Ps the Bari Weiss piece I put up outlines exactly the case against kids and boosters…you just prefer to ignore it
 
Grace T. said:
Wow you broke my Orwellian translator on this one. First you lead with the subtle insult despite always playing the victim. Then you fail to explain how the equation (which admittedly is very simplified) is wrong. Next the 40/50 numbers were the ones posted 10 weeks out for boosters from Europe (not just one vaccine…depending on the weeks out it’s anywhere from 5/25% for the adult pfizer full course). Next you ignore the prior post I put up on why even those numbers are inflated. Then you cite the cdc which is laughable considering all the bad science and propaganda they put out, especially in light of the fact kids boosters didn’t go through the normal vetting procedures and there have been fda resignations over those shots. There doesn’t appear to be a covidian propaganda you don’t like. Finally rather than transmission numbers (which is what’s relevant if you are talking subjecting an individual to a risk event) you shift the goalposts to hospitalizations and doctor visits. Man two years out and you dig deeper and deeper into your fantasies…you went from a thinker to now clutching that blue pill tightly as the narrative collapses all around you. Literally shaking my head at what probably is the worst post you’ve ever posted since this began.
Ps the Bari Weiss piece I put up outlines exactly the case against kids and boosters…you just prefer to ignore it
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Subtle? It's not subtle at all.

Twice, you condescendingly refer to your argument as basic math, implying that anyone who disagrees must be stupid.

The second time, I called you on it.
 
Grace T. said:
Wow you broke my Orwellian translator on this one. First you lead with the subtle insult despite always playing the victim. Then you fail to explain how the equation (which admittedly is very simplified) is wrong. Next the 40/50 numbers were the ones posted 10 weeks out for boosters from Europe (not just one vaccine…depending on the weeks out it’s anywhere from 5/25% for the adult pfizer full course). Next you ignore the prior post I put up on why even those numbers are inflated. Then you cite the cdc which is laughable considering all the bad science and propaganda they put out, especially in light of the fact kids boosters didn’t go through the normal vetting procedures and there have been fda resignations over those shots. There doesn’t appear to be a covidian propaganda you don’t like. Finally rather than transmission numbers (which is what’s relevant if you are talking subjecting an individual to a risk event) you shift the goalposts to hospitalizations and doctor visits. Man two years out and you dig deeper and deeper into your fantasies…you went from a thinker to now clutching that blue pill tightly as the narrative collapses all around you. Literally shaking my head at what probably is the worst post you’ve ever posted since this began.
Ps the Bari Weiss piece I put up outlines exactly the case against kids and boosters…you just prefer to ignore it
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Since he loves “filters”, please make those CDC #’s are filtered using hospitalizations “from” and “with” Covid (as estimates have been roughly 40% of the hospitalizations are “with”, meaning they came in for something g other than Covid and tested positive while being admitted).
 
dad4 said:
Subtle? It's not subtle at all.

Twice, you condescendingly refer to your argument as basic math, implying that anyone who disagrees must be stupid.

The second time, I called you on it.
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When you change the parameters, you change the question and therefore the math.

How can you eliminate transmission rates from the effectiveness calculation of a vaccine?
 
dad4 said:
Subtle? It's not subtle at all.

Twice, you condescendingly refer to your argument as basic math, implying that anyone who disagrees must be stupid.

The second time, I called you on it.
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Because its basic math and it’s hilarious that you can’t see it. Like most math types you wrap yourself up in such fancy rules you can’t see the very basic elements sitting in front of you: if the risk events can’t be avoided, two risks are more risky than one (or if you prefer even more simple and remedial…you rather take one roll of the dice than two). You still haven’t explained what’s wrong with that proposition. Basic basic basic and the great mathematician can’t see it. How humiliating.
 
L
Kicker 2.0 said:
Since he loves “filters”, please make those CDC #’s are filtered using hospitalizations “from” and “with” Covid (as estimates have been roughly 40% of the hospitalizations are “with”, meaning they came in for something g other than Covid and tested positive while being admitted).
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Yeah but they are irrelevant to the argument which is why he is goalpost moving (again). The only way he can really make out a case is if the transmission prevention numbers are reasonably high (we know for anything shy of the moderna booster they aren’t especially as they decline in time) and if the risk from myocarditis in young men is less in vaccination than natural infection (and there’s at least some evidence that it isn’t). That forces him move the goalpost to deaths, long covid, hospitalization and (in one of the stupidest and most irrelevant statements he’s ever made) doctor/er visits which we already know for the under 30 set is incredibly low and lower than a vaxxed 50 year old for the kids. Even then, his best case scenario (were he to be right in all his assumptions) is vaccinated the immunonaive once (but boosters enter truly looney bin land).
 
dad4 said:
Grace, the “basic math” in this case is about four years beyond anything you took.

Also, your numbers are completely wrong on booster effectiveness against omicron. You can keep saying “40%“ or “50%”, but that doesn’t make it true. CDC is putting it at 82% or 90%. 90% is hospitalization. 82% is doctor visit. (urgent care)

www.cdc.gov

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines ...

This report describes COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness time frames among people who received their first and second doses of the vaccine series, and effectiveness of third vaccine doses during both Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
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Those numbers have nothing to do with the young.

So giving the young doesn't solve or help anything.

They are not getting sick now or going to the hospital.

Further with o the vax doesn't stop the spread of the virus.

So there isn't any reason to give them the vaxx.
 
Kicker 2.0 said:
When you change the parameters, you change the question and therefore the math.

How can you eliminate transmission rates from the effectiveness calculation of a vaccine?
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How do you design an experiment to measure vaccine effectiveness with respect to transmission?

I agree it would be nice to have, but I don't see an ethical way to do it.
 
dad4 said:
Grace, the “basic math” in this case is about four years beyond anything you took.

Also, your numbers are completely wrong on booster effectiveness against omicron. You can keep saying “40%“ or “50%”, but that doesn’t make it true. CDC is putting it at 82% or 90%. 90% is hospitalization. 82% is doctor visit. (urgent care)

www.cdc.gov

Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines ...

This report describes COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness time frames among people who received their first and second doses of the vaccine series, and effectiveness of third vaccine doses during both Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
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So, one size fits all?
 
dad4 said:
How do you design an experiment to measure vaccine effectiveness with respect to transmission?

I agree it would be nice to have, but I don't see an ethical way to do it.
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True, but we are talking about data analysis right now. You made a false claim based on the argument being made (not false if you add cherry picked parameters, but that changes the argument).

they have data, they know who got it and of those who where vaxx’d and boosted. A few things that would skew the numbers are asymptomatic and untested and/or unreported home test positives, but likely not in a direction that would improve the effectiveness.
 
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