Bad News Thread

[espola]

Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

In the case of Delta, it’s already here. About 6% of cases in the US. For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.

So, mid summer, it will be dominant. By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.

Since covid has only been recognized for about 18 months now, I'm not convinced that it has a true seasonal component. Arguments for a seasonal effect include the US peak in January/February and Australia in August, but South Africa's caseload peaked in October and Argentina's numbers just wander all over the place inconclusively.

Covid Trends

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.

aatishb.com

If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.

 

[Desert Hound]

So I didn’t miss much time.

On behalf of those of us on the forum, we wish you would have spent some time learning and expanding your horizons.

You are kind of like the bubble boy. You live in a very small world intellectually. Anything you encounter outside your bubble seems to frighten you.

 

[Desert Hound]

Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

Sorry big guy.

We just are not going to have the type of authoritarian system that mandates all the things you dream of.

 

[dad4]

Since covid has only been recognized for about 18 months now, I'm not convinced that it has a true seasonal component. Arguments for a seasonal effect include the US peak in January/February and Australia in August, but South Africa's caseload peaked in October and Argentina's numbers just wander all over the place inconclusively.

Covid Trends

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.

aatishb.com

If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.

I wonder whether Delta is partly responsible for the slight uptick in cases in San Jose. We have a 78% vax rate for adults, and 30% previously infected. That should mean about 80% immunity, but cases are not dropping. Stuck at about 30 per day.

Makes a ton of sense if the dominant variant in town just changed. It’s the same pattern as we saw when the UK variant came in. We think we are done, open it all up, higher transmission variant comes in, and you get a new bump in cases.

 

[Desert Hound]

Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

In the case of Delta, it’s already here. About 6% of cases in the US. For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.

So, mid summer, it will be dominant. By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.

By the way, we see that covid has variants. Many have sprung up.

With your mindset, you will continually want restrictions and masks. Why? Because based on past history we kind of know that covid will spawn variants in the future.

Your solution it seems is to live in fear, keep wearing masks, keep certain restrictions in place because in the future SOME variant might be troublesome.

That is no way to live your life son.

 

[Grace T.]

She turned it into a personal attack. What did you think would happen?

Were you expecting her to review the data, decide her earlier position was in error, and alter her opinion?

That's hilarious coming from one who has been dropping the personal attacks recently. The more your faith is challenged, the more bitter you get.

 

[Kicker4Life]

I wonder whether Delta is partly responsible for the slight uptick in cases in San Jose. We have a 78% vax rate for adults, and 30% previously infected. That should mean about 80% immunity, but cases are not dropping. Stuck at about 30 per day.

Makes a ton of sense if the dominant variant in town just changed. It’s the same pattern as we saw when the UK variant came in. We think we are done, open it all up, higher transmission variant comes in, and you get a new bump in cases.

How many cases of the actual flu were reported daily?

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Sorry Dad4 but they are going to allow the honor system. Good news is businesses can't deny access to someone wearing a mask.

Californians vaccinated for COVID-19 can largely shed masks on June 15

Californians who are fully vaccinated for COVID-19 will be able to shed their face masks in most situations starting next week, state officials confirmed Wednesday.The long-teased change will take …

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.

 

[watfly]

My previous job of almost 40 years had no such thing as “sick leave”, don’t work don’t get paid. So I didn’t miss much time.

Your union really dropped the ball.

Like I said before employers need to be a little more flexible with sick time on a go forward basis. I believe that it will benefit both employee and employer in the long run.

 

[watfly]

I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.

You mean the panicked scramble when you're in front of the store, usually a unplanned mini market stop, and your rummaging through your car trying to find a mask. Sometimes finding a janky old mask that god knows who wore, and you're like F' it, I really need that can of Starbucks Doubleshot.

Why was it so hard for us to remember a mask even after a year? It must be some subconscious thing.

 

[watfly]

Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

In the case of Delta, it’s already here. About 6% of cases in the US. For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.

So, mid summer, it will be dominant. By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.

Are you aware of any states that aren't using the honor system? It seems that every state is either using the honor system to some extent or eliminating the mask requirement altogether. Verification of vaccine status seems to be only required in some states for very specific situations.

If you are unhappy with Newsom's honor system you have the opportunity to tell him how you feel in the recall election this Fall.

 

[espola]

I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.

I spent the last few months remembering my mask when I was halfway from my car to the store and had to go back to get it. On the last trip out, I remembered my mask when I left the car, but I forgot my cellphone and had to go back to get it.

 

[Desert Hound]

"Over and over we see the central truth: the corporate outlets that most loudly and shrilly denounce “disinformation” — to the point of demanding online censorship and de-platforming in the name of combating it — are, in fact, the ones who spread disinformation most frequently and destructively. It is hard to count how many times they have spread major fake stories in the Trump years. For that reason, they have nobody but themselves to blame for the utter collapse in trust and faith on the part of the public, which has rightfully concluded they cannot and should not be believed."

Yet Another Media Tale -- Trump Tear-Gassed Protesters For a Church Photo Op -- Collapses

That the White House violently cleared Lafayette Park at Trump's behest was treated as unquestioned truth by most corporate media. Today it was revealed as a falsehood.

greenwald.substack.com

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

In the case of Delta, it’s already here. About 6% of cases in the US. For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.

So, mid summer, it will be dominant. By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.

Gong.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.

Shocking!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.

More like a mee-oww with a 99 percent survival rate. Unless you're suggesting that the current vaccines are pathogenic primers.

 

[dad4]

How many cases of the actual flu were reported daily?

Why do you believe this is relevant?

I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter. Works out to another 100K deaths or so. Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.

Do you have a similar concern with the flu?

 

[Desert Hound]

Why do you believe this is relevant?

I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter. Works out to another 100K deaths or so. Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.

Do you have a similar concern with the flu?

So at another 100k deaths or so...that puts us slightly higher than the flu in a bad year.

Totally fine with that. We don't blink an eye with those rates with the flu. We just deal with it and move on.

Same thing here. Right?

 

[Grace T.]

Why do you believe this is relevant?

I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter. Works out to another 100K deaths or so. Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.

Do you have a similar concern with the flu?

Even assuming your Max No of 20% and a Max IFR for non vaccinated across the gen population of .4% (which you yourself said was falling due to treatments and seems to actually be between .1-.2%), that 100K number is the worst case ceiling because vaccination 65+ is running substantially higher than the rest of the population. IIRC the last number I saw for 65+ was close to 80%. It's probably closer to 60,000-80,000 which would be in line with the seasonal flu.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Why do you believe this is relevant?

Because you think PCR test are relevant.