Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
Sorry this is probably one of the most divorced thing you've said from the real world. Despite the mask mandates, Europe wasn't able to contain a winter wave let alone a resurgent wave now. Los Angeles despite having one since spring ended up as one of the worst places in the US. But the vaccine has caused a tremendous drop in Israel and the UK (though with the UK it's hard to divorce from lockdown protocols). The 2 numbers are close only in your theoretical fantasy world. One works, the other one doesn't, in controlling waves.

It's probably because your 70% exists in a world where people like Fauci can keep their masks on when the cameras aren't rolling, part of the population doesn't say no thanks, people like Biden wear proper fitting ones without them having to be touched and pulled up by dirty fingers constantly, people without medical training like kids suddenly learn to properly wear mask, people don't constantly wash cloth mask and dispose of surgical masks after a single use, gaiters and bandanas aren't allowed, people don't get encouraged to use them to engage in more risky behavior, people use them for limited amounts of time to reduce short term exposures, people replace them if they get wet and people can stand to use them even in the home.
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Totally missed the point.
 
Grace T. said:
Sorry this is probably one of the most divorced thing you've said from the real world. Despite the mask mandates, Europe wasn't able to contain a winter wave let alone a resurgent wave now. Los Angeles despite having one since spring ended up as one of the worst places in the US. But the vaccine has caused a tremendous drop in Israel and the UK (though with the UK it's hard to divorce from lockdown protocols). The 2 numbers are close only in your theoretical fantasy world. One works, the other one doesn't, in controlling waves.

It's probably because your 70% exists in a world where people like Fauci can keep their masks on when the cameras aren't rolling, part of the population doesn't say no thanks, people like Biden wear proper fitting ones without them having to be touched and pulled up by dirty fingers constantly, people without medical training like kids suddenly learn to properly wear mask, people don't constantly wash cloth mask and dispose of surgical masks after a single use, gaiters and bandanas aren't allowed, people don't get encouraged to use them to engage in more risky behavior, people use them for limited amounts of time to reduce short term exposures, people replace them if they get wet and people can stand to use them even in the home.
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A 70% effective mask worn by 70% of the people gets you less than a 50% reduction in cases.

That's what Germany has. The other 30% are AfD.

We aren't the only country with a major political party devoted to rejecting public health measures.

To handle a variant with R0=5, you need measures that combine for an 80% reduction in transmission. Hard to do that when 30% of the country is playing for team virus.
 
dad4 said:
A 70% effective mask worn by 70% of the people gets you less than a 50% reduction in cases.

That's what Germany has. The other 30% are AfD.

We aren't the only country with a major political party devoted to rejecting public health measures.

To handle a variant with R0=5, you need measures that combine for an 80% reduction in transmission. Hard to do that when 30% of the country is playing for team virus.
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A substantial portion of the transmissions are in the home. People aren't wearing masks in the home, and even if they wanted to by the time they realize something is up it's probably too late. It's for that simple reason masks are never going to control an outbreak, while a vaccine can. Masks have little impact on an outbreak because human's are flawed and use flawed masks in a flawed manner. "Stop having a Republican Party" isn't a health policy prescription. When cases start to align along lines of latitude, and vaccines bring down the case and death count, it's pretty clear some things matter much more than others.

And as for Germany, guess the AfD has staged a coup because it's not just plateaued now but rising again.

www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
espola said:
Totally missed the point.
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Meh. He made a technical point about what magnitude means in math when I was using it colloquially. He tried to rebut a self-evident point (that vaccines have the capability of ending the current crisis, if not the actual pandemic, while masks have utterly failed in that regard despite very rigorous mandates such as in Spain) by using said technicality and then went into crazy land by making a point that masks and vaccines are roughly equivalent (which he later had to clarify and back down on). Not exactly his, or your, finest hour....of the many stumbles, that overreach was probably one of the worst because it puts him in the same crazy train as "masks are as good as vaccines". Sorry if the crazy train caught my attention more.
 
Grace T. said:
A substantial portion of the transmissions are in the home. People aren't wearing masks in the home, and even if they wanted to by the time they realize something is up it's probably too late. It's for that simple reason masks are never going to control an outbreak, while a vaccine can. Masks have little impact on an outbreak because human's are flawed and use flawed masks in a flawed manner. "Stop having a Republican Party" isn't a health policy prescription. When cases start to align along lines of latitude, and vaccines bring down the case and death count, it's pretty clear some things matter much more than others.

And as for Germany, guess the AfD has staged a coup because it's not just plateaued now but rising again.

www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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You lost me there.

How does in-home transmission explain how the virus gets from one house to another?

And, if masks can help stop the virus from entering a new home, why would that not be useful towards ending the pandemic?
 
dad4 said:
You lost me there.

How does in-home transmission explain how the virus gets from one house to another?

And, if masks can help stop the virus from entering a new home, why would that not be useful towards ending the pandemic?
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Every person that gets sick in the home is another potential source of transmission to someone outside the home. The masks aren't a barrier to that transmission. So 1 person becomes 4 and those person's 4 possible contacts and the mask doesn't do anything to stop that. The vaccines are because they stop that 1 to 4.

I never said masks can't be useful. I said they aren't nearly as useful as a vaccine, and anywhere near of an impact on whether an outbreak will occur as lines of latitude/weather or even variant types, which is what you failed to note in the original statement that started this discussion.
 
Grace T. said:
Every person that gets sick in the home is another potential source of transmission to someone outside the home. The masks aren't a barrier to that transmission. So 1 person becomes 4 and those person's 4 possible contacts and the mask doesn't do anything to stop that. The vaccines are because they stop that 1 to 4.

I never said masks can't be useful. I said they aren't nearly as useful as a vaccine, and anywhere near of an impact on whether an outbreak will occur as lines of latitude/weather or even variant types, which is what you failed to note in the original statement that started this discussion.
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I should put this in the good news section...but what the hell.

AZ lifted all mask mandates today (schools being the main exception....others being places like airports where the feds run the roost).

I guess we should see a spike in cases in a couple of weeks dad?
 
Desert Hound said:
I should put this in the good news section...but what the hell.

AZ lifted all mask mandates today (schools being the main exception....others being places like airports where the feds run the roost).

I guess we should see a spike in cases in a couple of weeks dad?
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Are the new rules any different from the most relaxed rules you had near your peak?

If no, then don't expect another peak. You have already had that one. It may slow your recovery, but it won't cause a peak.

If yes, then you need to ask whether the damage from your change is enough to offset the benefit from vaccinations.
 
dad4 said:
Are the new rules any different from the most relaxed rules you had near your peak?

If no, then don't expect another peak. You have already had that one. It may slow your recovery, but it won't cause a peak.

If yes, then you need to ask whether the damage from your change is enough to offset the benefit from vaccinations.
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Well lets see. No masks now to go into a store, into a bar, into a restaurant, into basically any place.

During our peak we had mask mandates and good compliance. Funny how that didn't stop the peak. Funny also how our rise in cases during our peak coincided with pretty much every state (some with strict rules, others with medium type rules and others with rather lax rules).

As I have said repeatedly. If masks as you say REDUCED the spread by 70% we would see that data. But alas we don't. It is almost like they really don't make much of a difference in the real world.
 
Desert Hound said:
Well lets see. No masks now to go into a store, into a bar, into a restaurant, into basically any place.

During our peak we had mask mandates and good compliance. Funny how that didn't stop the peak. Funny also how our rise in cases during our peak coincided with pretty much every state (some with strict rules, others with medium type rules and others with rather lax rules).

As I have said repeatedly. If masks as you say REDUCED the spread by 70% we would see that data. But alas we don't. It is almost like they really don't make much of a difference in the real world.
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Masks do reduce inter-household transmission by 70%, and CDC has published reports explaining the numbers behind it.

The problem is not that we don't see the impact in the data. CDC sees it just fine, as do most epidemiologists.

The problem is that you do not have the stats background to be able see it. Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus. That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.

Take a few biostatistics classes, and then tell me what you think the data do and do not say.
 
dad4 said:
March weather in TX might be a little different from MI. Could be a second factor there.

Sorry. The system is complicated. You don't get to look at only one thing and draw a meaningful conclusion.

You look at ten things in 1000 places, run a regression, and see whether there are any of the important things are controllable.

The controllable elements are things like masks, dining, outdoors, distance, ventilation, and vaccines.

You going to help with any of these, or are you still playing for team virus?
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You have an amazing immune system that has no choice but to take care of a winpy host.
 
dad4 said:
Several magnitudes?

Nice rhetoric, but do you have any evidence that one thing is 10^4 times as good as another?

I do not think that phrase means what you think it does.

Masks cause about a 70% decrease in transmission. 2 dose vaccines seem likely to cause around a 95% decrease.

Less than one order of magnitude. Not "several".
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Where have masks caused a 70% reduction in transmission?
 
dad4 said:
The problem is that you do not have the stats background to be able see it. Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus. That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.
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I don't have a problem with stats. I am looking at 3 states with 90 million people total, and it is hard to see much daylight between the 3.

You were certain based on stats that those states would blow up (TX/FL). And yet a yr in they are now the same.

And you made a pronouncement that TX was in trouble (based on you understanding of stats) of eliminating masks, opening biz.

I made the statement that we won't see an increase in cases and as a matter of fact they would still be at about the same spot as CA.

Your excuse now is that CA has a variant that is different. Either way the point is you won't see cases in TX go up. Your stats say yes. My bet is based on watching the data is that in less than 2 weeks ( which puts us at a month) we won't see any rise.

What then pray tell will be your new goalpost?
 
dad4 said:
79% on USS Roosevelt. 70%, in the CDC nationwide county by county regression.

Only applies in transmission between homes, as Grace noted.
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I suspect your upcoming excuse about TX coming up shortly is that the reason of no rise but a continuing decline is the vaccine.

And if that is the case, that means the Gov understood the vaccine could and should have that result which is why they opened up.

You on the other hand seem to be perpetually worried about variants now and use that as a reason to continue with failed policy
 
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