The last IHME update helps a lot: it shows a peak much sooner for the places with early social distancing.![]()
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
Hard to predict when start up will commence but if this trends continue its showing a June 1 “Go” at the latest. Germany just announced 4/19 is their “Go” date
But remember that IMHE is a hospital usage forecaster, not an infection rate forecaster. The new numbers reflect in part a change to the hospitalization assumptions. They are assuming fewer hospital days per patient, and a smaller fractions of patients needing hospital at all. This makes the IMHE resource numbers better, but that is different from an infection rate prediction. I don’t have data for infection rate predictions.
If they do go with an early restart, we need to find ways to do lower density events during the summer and fall. It is one thing to have 30 people get together at a middle school. Much less risky than 5,000 or more at the sports complex.