Is this post from the same MSK who claimed that swine flu is far worse than corona?
estimates of deaths from an *uncontrolled* outbreak;
7 million (me)
2.2 million (Imperial College, London)
1.5 to 2.2 million (CDC).
far less than 12,000. (MSK)
whose estimate is out of line here? mine is off by a factor of 3. yours is off by a factor of 100 to 1000.
The main difference is that the London estimate did not try to factor in resource shortages. places with a resource shortage (Wuhan) had a death rate of 3.4%. Places without resource shortages (Korea) had a death rate closer to 0.9%.
South Korea had a warning from what was happening in China, had an aggressive public health program that back-traced the sick using technology (cell phone records), and had a population compliant with the government's program.