Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!

Desert Hound said:
By the way @dad4

Food for thought.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ who everything thinks is legit. If you look at state by state...scroll all the way to the right. It gives projections through Jan 1.

For Cal 49k deaths projected. For AZ 8700

If you calculate based on deaths per million they are projected to be about the same.

If you end up at the same rate, but one state has not allowed school, severely limited biz, sports, etc....one can rightly ask...what was the point of doing it in the first place?

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You are correct, IF those projections do come out close to their predictive values, then the death rates would be almost the same for Arizona vs California. However, California has more than 4 times the population density than Arizona. An extreme example would be to say if North Dakota can open up why can't California? It's night and day. It's a big reason why things got out of hand so quickly in New York and why there were so many deaths. The initial dose load that spreads through a highly dense population matters a lot for infection rate and more importantly the severity of the disease.
 
thedudeabides said:
We were looking at death rates and so far Arizona is clearly doing worse. When you look at population densities and factor that in, Arizona is almost last in the U.S.; but hey as long as you are playing soccer it's all good right?
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I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
 
thedudeabides said:
You are correct, IF those projections do come out close to their predictive values, then the death rates would be almost the same for Arizona vs California. However, California has more than 4 times the population density than Arizona. An extreme example would be to say if North Dakota can open up why can't California? It's night and day. It's a big reason why things got out of hand so quickly in New York and why there were so many deaths. The initial dose load that spreads through a highly dense population matters a lot for infection rate and more importantly the severity of the disease.
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IMHE does curve fitting. Very accurate short term, but any curve fitting gets weak as you get further away from your data points.

I would trust IMHE for September, but not November/December. Too far from the data points.

( Hound’s argument relies almost entirely on the December curve fitting. We can recheck it at Thanksgiving, by whoch point the more extreme data extrapolation errors will be gone. )
 
Kicker4Life said:
I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
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Man Kicker, some people just dont want to listen to sound advice
 
Just heard SCDSL has postponed league start to Oct 31 (from Oct 3rd). Anyone else heard or can confirm this?
 
Kicker4Life said:
I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
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Oh, silly me, I thought this was a soccer site and this was a soccer thread. I could really care less what Arizona does. Arizona is a taker state meaning they take out a lot more from the fed then they put in. They rank in the top ten worst for federal subsidies. California subsidizes states like Arizona.
 
Soccer43 said:
Anything be who still thinks there will be a fall season at all in so cal needs a reality check- the clubs and Cal South just don’t want to say it
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That's the frustrating part, US Club, Cal South need to just announce it already... because saying nothing only prompts rumors, misinformation, etc. "Oh my friends neighbors cousin baby daddy uncle heard that we're starting on such and such date".. then poof a thread evolves and ultimately does nothing except stir up an argument amongst the covid posters... oh and of course a story from @EJ lol
 
Footy30 said:
That's the frustrating part, US Club, Cal South need to just announce it already... because saying nothing only prompts rumors, misinformation, etc. "Oh my friends neighbors cousin baby daddy uncle heard that we're starting on such and such date".. then poof a thread evolves and ultimately does nothing except stir up an argument amongst the covid posters... oh and of course a story from @EJ lol
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I don’t blame US Club or Cal South but I do blame our state government for their lack of clarity and transparency. The reason the soccer governing bodies probably are not cancelling is because the governor can wake up tomorrow and suddenly allow youth soccer. He has shown himself to be poor at leading and changing his mind on a whim. I can remember earlier on this summer that countries were going to have to show 14 days of no deaths in order to open. That was several iterations of his “opening” plan ago but it shows he can change his mind at anytime.
 
paytoplay said:
I believe we will have a Fall season. I mean we just got the new uniforms and all!
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I believe deep down in my heart that we will have some games this fall for ECNL. I can't speak on other leagues. I heard a rumor that I just wont share right now because it would be just rubbing salt in a woon. I believe in Soccer so much, that I bought my dd new uniform, paid her dues, paid for her video, booked hotel and now just waiting to see her play via live-stream. I skipped practice again last night to keep the crowd size down at Great Park.
 
Soccerhelper said:
I believe deep down in my heart that we will have some games this fall for ECNL. I can't speak on other leagues. I heard a rumor that I just wont share right now because it would be just rubbing salt in a woon. I believe in Soccer so much, that I bought my dd new uniform, paid her dues, paid for her video, booked hotel and now just waiting to see her play via live-stream. I skipped practice again last night to keep the crowd size down at Great Park.
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got to love Great Park! In case you are feeling sick, you can just take a test right next to your practice!
 
Eagle33 said:
got to love Great Park! In case you are feeling sick, you can just take a test right next to your practice!
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You took the words right out of my mind. You got everything at Great Park. Balloon, Hockey, Baseball, Soccer, Tennis, Softball and Covid Testing. I feel super safe & blessed :)
 
thedudeabides said:
You are correct, IF those projections do come out close to their predictive values, then the death rates would be almost the same for Arizona vs California.
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To be honest I don't put much faith in those projections.

For the1st 7 months Cal has what 13k deaths? And the model projects that in the next 4 months deaths will jump 36k more? That seems rather unlikely to say the least.
 
The HB Dad said:
"There have now been 26,000 covid positive tests reported on 29 different college campuses. There are ZERO student hospitalizations as a result."
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It really should not come as a surprise. The CDC data consistently shows that under 24s have really no risk.

We all see the news reports about various colleges having x amount test positive and it is always a WOW news story.

They never circle around to follow up to let us know...never mind nothing actually happened.
 
The HB Dad said:
"There have now been 26,000 covid positive tests reported on 29 different college campuses. There are ZERO student hospitalizations as a result."

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To make this argument properly, wait 3 weeks, and include the number of hospitalizations in those college towns. The students may be fine, but the professors and the old guy who runs the pizza shop may or may not be.
 
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