Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!

[Desert Hound]

"We saw in Arizona, which was a good example, they went up (in cases) and they started to really clamp down and do things right. And the cases came right down," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN's John Berman on Thursday morning.
The state and its governor, Doug Ducey, were praised on Wednesday by President Donald Trump and Dr. Deborah Birx in the Oval Office, where Ducey credited the downward trend to Arizonans wearing masks, physically distancing, washing hands and staying home if sick.

And then like we see everyone around the world as you open up cases start to rise again. Why? Because the virus isn't magically going away.

Clamping down doesn't eliminate the virus. All it does is delay the spread.

The idea of shutting down was to allow a ramp up of medical supplies, etc to hopefully prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed. It was never about eliminating the virus.

The virus is going to virus.

 

[Desert Hound]

Totally agree. If I use DeserHound's argument, New York City's and Scottsdale's murder rates are statistically meaningless, since only 0.0015% of New York City's population were murdered last year. Who ever knew NYC and Scottsdale were equally safe? LOL

Actually it is idiotic to talk about murders. Why?

Because when we talk murders, etc. we are not talking about shutting down biz, schools, sports, etc in order to attempt to stop murders.

 

[wc_baller]

Actually it is idiotic to talk about murders. Why?

Because when we talk murders, etc. we are not talking about shutting down biz, schools, sports, etc in order to attempt to stop murders.

Actually, the conversation is about statistics, your lack of understanding about statistics, how your failure to understand statistics is very clear in how you try to spin the statistics to fit your argument, and how your argument is a huge swing and miss. Nice try, though.

 

[Soccerhelper]

The virus is going to virus.

 

[Desert Hound]

If you actually run the stats, you can compute the probability that the two states have equal death rates. Formula is any elementary stats book.

The difference in their number of deaths works out to somewhere north of 50 standard deviations. That is similar to your odds of playing Roulette for an hour in Vegas, always betting on 17, and always winning.

So, no, not statistically meaningless. In fact, it is about as statistically meaningful as you will ever find.

No the stats are meaningless in terms of deaths in AZ vs CA. The decision is relating to opening schools, biz, sports, etc. And so when you are talking almost 8 million people in AZ, the difference in deaths of .0667% and .0333% is meaningless. You cannot sit there and think WOW CA has nailed this. They got it right based on that difference in percentages.

The gov has an obligation to look at the welfare of the population as a whole. Do I kill of biz? Do I prevent kids from learning? Do I harm the kids who have the least resources to get an education by not allowing in person classes, etc. All for a difference in the total population of .0667% vs .0333%

Logic tells you that you A) open up and B) focus/allow those at risk to keep away.

If you are at risk stay home. Minimize contact with outsiders. If you have to live with those at risk, then you too should not be out and about.

Grocery stores/farmacies, etc have all put in hours in the morning that are limited to those at risk.

There is away to protect those at risk, while allowing those how have virtually zero risk to move on.

 

[Desert Hound]

Actually, the conversation is about statistics, your lack of understanding about statistics, how your failure to understand statistics is very clear in how you try to spin the statistics to fit your argument, and how your argument is a huge swing and miss. Nice try, though.

No we are talking about stats as it relates to covid and risk and shutdowns.

With covid we have shut down large parts of schools, etc.

If you want to talk murders fine. Mine and your risk of getting murdered is virtually NIL.

2019 stats show NY at 2.9 per 100K. AZ about 5.1 per 100k. CA is 4.4.

That difference is meaningless in terms of how you and I live our lives. We don't change our habits based on one or the other.

You certainly don't drive to AZ from CA and suddenly feel less safe. I certainly don't drive to CA and upon arrival feel safer.

What I don't do is bring up stats related to an entirely unrelated topic to try to make some point like you did.

You want to talk about bee stings now as well? And somehow try to shoehorn that into covid and the risk of covid?

 

[Desert Hound]

That's one of dumbest arguments I've ever heard here. That's like saying that because only 0.0000025% of the California population was on the 2021 US Women's World Cup roster and 0% Arizona's population was on the roster, the difference is meaningless.

100% more deaths in Arizona than California per capita is not statistically "meaningless", and if you truly believe that, I suggest you go back and tack a basic Statistics class.

Hey last year we had 1 death. This year 2. Wow we went up by 100%!!! What should we do about this huge increase?

Context is important. More so when we are talking about using that number to compare whether or not to shut schools, limit biz, put people out of work, etc.

Try this one since you seem to have trouble with stats and like bad analogies.

Using your analogy

Your stock broker tells you hey baller...you are not the only one that can ball around here. Last year I generated a return of .0333% on your portfolio. I was a bit disappointed. But this year I made you 100% more than last year. This year your return is .0667%. Later that night you are telling your buddies over a few brewskis that they should use your broker because he doubled how much you made this year vs last yr. After all your rate of return went up 100%!!! Fortunately one of your friends pulls you aside and tells you the difference is meaningless and knocks some sense into your head.

I will await more bad analogies on your part.

 

[Desert Hound]

By the way @dad4

Food for thought.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ who everything thinks is legit. If you look at state by state...scroll all the way to the right. It gives projections through Jan 1.

For Cal 49k deaths projected. For AZ 8700

If you calculate based on deaths per million they are projected to be about the same.

If you end up at the same rate, but one state has not allowed school, severely limited biz, sports, etc....one can rightly ask...what was the point of doing it in the first place?

 

[jpeter]

Well there is a end around way for very select few

Play with on adult mens women team playing now. # of HS 16yr olds play in USL, UPSL and other adult leagues. Can sign as amateur, not take money and still be ncaa eligible but those amateur slots are limited per team some times go to importers to keep them in the country.

 

[thedudeabides]

Actually no. Go look up super carrier. You get results for super spreader. Dig around and find me literature talking about super carriers. You are talking super spreaders. Which in fact is why you posted a couple of articles referring to how children may spread the virus. When you find articles talking about carriers it is in the context of how they spread the disease.

NONE of them referred to children spreading the virus at a higher rate vs adults.

When you do find references of carriers it is in the context of being spreaders.

The funny thing is you made a claim basically saying kids spread the disease a lot. You got called out for it when asked for what studies. You went on to produce a couple of articles that in fact showed the OPPOSITE of what you claimed.

And when called on that, now try to pretend that you were talking about something else.

You imply you are in the health profession. And yet you have trouble producing the studies that support your claim.



And again you have no idea what you are talking about.

Go ahead and show the math where AZ has been worse than NY as it relates to deaths.

I assume you like the CA version over AZ. AZ has lost .0667% of our population. If we were like CA we are talking .0333% of our population. The statistical difference is meaningless.

What is not meaningless however is our kids are starting to go back to school, we have more biz open, ...less economic, educational, and emotional harm.

If we look nationwide we see covid deaths under 24 are in and around 330. The fact that people are scared to have their kids, teens, college age kids go to school, play sports, etc. tells me that #1 they don't look at data and #2 they are not making rational decisions related to risk in this group.

Next: To be honest it is hard to find any studies out there that showed locked downs effectively stopped the virus. All lockdowns have seemed to produced is a delay in the virus spread. As the countries who were claimed models of success open up, their cases start to spike. What is noticeable however is the death rates in these countries (or states in the US) do not show a corresponding rate of death as was seen early on in Feb/March/April which is rather good news.

No point in arguing with you if you can't admit you changed the words. I said super carrier and it's in my original post for all to see. I produced an article on how they are asymptomatic carriers that have very high viral loads. There is no peer reviewed evidence either way saying they are spreading the disease to adults or they aren't. When you can produce that then we can have a discussion.

The death rate is higher in Arizona.......fact. I heave dealt with health statistics my entire life. You're are clearly biased and regurgitate what Q memos tell you to.

 

[thedudeabides]

If you actually run the stats, you can compute the probability that the two states have equal death rates. Formula is any elementary stats book.

The difference in their number of deaths works out to somewhere north of 50 standard deviations. That is similar to your odds of playing Roulette for an hour in Vegas, always betting on 17, and always winning.

So, no, not statistically meaningless. In fact, it is about as statistically meaningful as you will ever find.

You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.

 

[Soccerhelper]

You're are clearly biased and regurgitate what Q memos tell you to.

 

[Kicker4Life]

You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.

Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!

 

[dad4]

You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.

Your math is right but you misread my words. We agree that the difference is very significant. Over 50 standard errors. p value = 0.00000000

 

[Soccerhelper]

How much are these machines? Can you rent?

 

[thedudeabides]

Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!

We were looking at death rates and so far Arizona is clearly doing worse. When you look at population densities and factor that in, Arizona is almost last in the U.S.; but hey as long as you are playing soccer it's all good right?

 

[thedudeabides]

Your math is right but you misread my words. We agree that the difference is very significant. Over 50 standard errors. p value = 0.00000000

My apologies. I see what you were saying in the other post.

 

[Copa9]

If you actually run the stats, you can compute the probability that the two states have equal death rates. Formula is any elementary stats book.

The difference in their number of deaths works out to somewhere north of 50 standard deviations. That is similar to your odds of playing Roulette for an hour in Vegas, always betting on 17, and always winning.

So, no, not statistically meaningless. In fact, it is about as statistically meaningful as you will ever find.

Except to the people who died.

 

[watfly]

Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!

If you have Covid tunnel vision, Covid is all that matters and is the only measure.

 

[Y_T]

Except to the people who died.