Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!

Well there is a end around way for very select few

Play with on adult mens women team playing now. # of HS 16yr olds play in USL, UPSL and other adult leagues. Can sign as amateur, not take money and still be ncaa eligible but those amateur slots are limited per team some times go to importers to keep them in the country.
 
Desert Hound said:
Actually no. Go look up super carrier. You get results for super spreader. Dig around and find me literature talking about super carriers. You are talking super spreaders. Which in fact is why you posted a couple of articles referring to how children may spread the virus. When you find articles talking about carriers it is in the context of how they spread the disease.

NONE of them referred to children spreading the virus at a higher rate vs adults.

When you do find references of carriers it is in the context of being spreaders.

The funny thing is you made a claim basically saying kids spread the disease a lot. You got called out for it when asked for what studies. You went on to produce a couple of articles that in fact showed the OPPOSITE of what you claimed.

And when called on that, now try to pretend that you were talking about something else.

You imply you are in the health profession. And yet you have trouble producing the studies that support your claim.



And again you have no idea what you are talking about.

Go ahead and show the math where AZ has been worse than NY as it relates to deaths.

I assume you like the CA version over AZ. AZ has lost .0667% of our population. If we were like CA we are talking .0333% of our population. The statistical difference is meaningless.

What is not meaningless however is our kids are starting to go back to school, we have more biz open, ...less economic, educational, and emotional harm.

If we look nationwide we see covid deaths under 24 are in and around 330. The fact that people are scared to have their kids, teens, college age kids go to school, play sports, etc. tells me that #1 they don't look at data and #2 they are not making rational decisions related to risk in this group.

Next: To be honest it is hard to find any studies out there that showed locked downs effectively stopped the virus. All lockdowns have seemed to produced is a delay in the virus spread. As the countries who were claimed models of success open up, their cases start to spike. What is noticeable however is the death rates in these countries (or states in the US) do not show a corresponding rate of death as was seen early on in Feb/March/April which is rather good news.
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No point in arguing with you if you can't admit you changed the words. I said super carrier and it's in my original post for all to see. I produced an article on how they are asymptomatic carriers that have very high viral loads. There is no peer reviewed evidence either way saying they are spreading the disease to adults or they aren't. When you can produce that then we can have a discussion.

The death rate is higher in Arizona.......fact. I heave dealt with health statistics my entire life. You're are clearly biased and regurgitate what Q memos tell you to.
 
dad4 said:
If you actually run the stats, you can compute the probability that the two states have equal death rates. Formula is any elementary stats book.

The difference in their number of deaths works out to somewhere north of 50 standard deviations. That is similar to your odds of playing Roulette for an hour in Vegas, always betting on 17, and always winning.

So, no, not statistically meaningless. In fact, it is about as statistically meaningful as you will ever find.
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You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.
 
thedudeabides said:
You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.
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Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!
 
thedudeabides said:
You obviously don't work with stats for a living. Show me the p value that says the death rates between California and and Arizona are statistically insignificant. They aren't. When you factor in population density, Arizona has performed horribly with Covid.
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Your math is right but you misread my words. We agree that the difference is very significant. Over 50 standard errors. p value = 0.00000000
 
Kicker4Life said:
Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!
Click to expand...

We were looking at death rates and so far Arizona is clearly doing worse. When you look at population densities and factor that in, Arizona is almost last in the U.S.; but hey as long as you are playing soccer it's all good right?
 
dad4 said:
If you actually run the stats, you can compute the probability that the two states have equal death rates. Formula is any elementary stats book.

The difference in their number of deaths works out to somewhere north of 50 standard deviations. That is similar to your odds of playing Roulette for an hour in Vegas, always betting on 17, and always winning.

So, no, not statistically meaningless. In fact, it is about as statistically meaningful as you will ever find.
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Except to the people who died.
 
Kicker4Life said:
Is their economy open?
Are their ICU’s overwhelmed (or even under stress)?
Are their youth out being kids and living a more normal life?
Are they on schedule to go back to classrooms?

If you answer YES to any of the questions above you are performing better than California!
Click to expand...
If you have Covid tunnel vision, Covid is all that matters and is the only measure.
 
Desert Hound said:
By the way @dad4

Food for thought.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ who everything thinks is legit. If you look at state by state...scroll all the way to the right. It gives projections through Jan 1.

For Cal 49k deaths projected. For AZ 8700

If you calculate based on deaths per million they are projected to be about the same.

If you end up at the same rate, but one state has not allowed school, severely limited biz, sports, etc....one can rightly ask...what was the point of doing it in the first place?

View attachment 8955
View attachment 8956
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You are correct, IF those projections do come out close to their predictive values, then the death rates would be almost the same for Arizona vs California. However, California has more than 4 times the population density than Arizona. An extreme example would be to say if North Dakota can open up why can't California? It's night and day. It's a big reason why things got out of hand so quickly in New York and why there were so many deaths. The initial dose load that spreads through a highly dense population matters a lot for infection rate and more importantly the severity of the disease.
 
thedudeabides said:
We were looking at death rates and so far Arizona is clearly doing worse. When you look at population densities and factor that in, Arizona is almost last in the U.S.; but hey as long as you are playing soccer it's all good right?
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I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
 
thedudeabides said:
You are correct, IF those projections do come out close to their predictive values, then the death rates would be almost the same for Arizona vs California. However, California has more than 4 times the population density than Arizona. An extreme example would be to say if North Dakota can open up why can't California? It's night and day. It's a big reason why things got out of hand so quickly in New York and why there were so many deaths. The initial dose load that spreads through a highly dense population matters a lot for infection rate and more importantly the severity of the disease.
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IMHE does curve fitting. Very accurate short term, but any curve fitting gets weak as you get further away from your data points.

I would trust IMHE for September, but not November/December. Too far from the data points.

( Hound’s argument relies almost entirely on the December curve fitting. We can recheck it at Thanksgiving, by whoch point the more extreme data extrapolation errors will be gone. )
 
Kicker4Life said:
I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
Click to expand...
Man Kicker, some people just dont want to listen to sound advice
 
Just heard SCDSL has postponed league start to Oct 31 (from Oct 3rd). Anyone else heard or can confirm this?
 
Kicker4Life said:
I know what you were debating/discussing and I added a few qualifying questions.

Did I mention soccer? Yah...didn’t think so.

If you want to debate my post, first go back and answer the questions, then let’s discuss.
Click to expand...

Oh, silly me, I thought this was a soccer site and this was a soccer thread. I could really care less what Arizona does. Arizona is a taker state meaning they take out a lot more from the fed then they put in. They rank in the top ten worst for federal subsidies. California subsidizes states like Arizona.
 
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