What's your best guess as to when trainings will resume?

jimlewis said:
This times different, this model will be right this time. And if a weekly camp can run mon-thurs for a few hours, why cant a summer camp run for 2 hours twice a week? think you're just jealous some counties are doing better than LA.
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Depends on the area. SJ is doing better. AZ is doing a lot worse. The governor is still saying the increased cases are only because of testing. I give that a week before the numbers force him to admit there is a problem. If you are there, wear a mask to help him out.

Wisdom of camps may depend on age. By one measure, the risk of kid to transmission doesn’t start to grow until the kids are 10, and really kicks in around 15. (Took this from the Journal’s article on school based clusters in Israel, quoting the Israeli health minister.)
 
Grace T. said:
We really need to have a national conversation about what roll experts should play in our planning. Absolutely talk to your doctor! A doctor can lay out for you precisely all of the risks involved. A doctor can tell you much about the current learning. A doctor can even tell you what they would do. But a doctor can't make the risk assessment FOR YOU. That's on you. And part of the problem for the doctor is that when everything is a nail, every solution is a hammer. They see only their expertise, and not the broad range of things, because life is complicated. Doctors don't opine on economics, for example. And we had epidemiologists who were blind to the other health concerns of a lockdown including suicide, depression, abuse, drug overdose, and delayed treatments, because they only saw their specialty. So they can tell us a lockdown is important for X, Y, and Z reason, but our leaders shouldn't be outsourcing decision making to them because they can't see the entire picture. It may turn out their recommendations are the right ones, but it's a broader conversation than just do X.

It's the same with a lawyer. If you were to ask a lawyer, hey I have this great idea for a new game which kids can play that involve kicking a ball around and involves some physical contact, do you think it's a good idea that I do it, the lawyer is going to say no. The lawyer will trot out the parade of horribles you have to worry about (whether abuse from coaches, to injuries, to some kid dying from heat exhaustion). The lawyer loses nothing telling you "no" because it's easier, but if the lawyer says yes and something happens then the lawyer is in trouble. The better question to ask the lawyer is what can we do that protects ourselves from the risk (e.g., insurance), but only you can decide whether the insurance is worth the bother or the cost (unless the govt tells you you must have it).

So absolutely talk to your doctor. And doctors have a huge role to play in advising us the best way to get back to school and sports. But they can only outline the risks, and ultimately it's up to us to decide whether those risks are justified for the individual situations.
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Incredibly well said. This advice can be applied to all aspects of life. In the case of Covid we've taken a jackhammer to a mosquito.
 
dad4 said:
Depends on the area. SJ is doing better. AZ is doing a lot worse. The governor is still saying the increased cases are only because of testing. I give that a week before the numbers force him to admit there is a problem. If you are there, wear a mask to help him out.

Wisdom of camps may depend on age. By one measure, the risk of kid to transmission doesn’t start to grow until the kids are 10, and really kicks in around 15. (Took this from the Journal’s article on school based clusters in Israel, quoting the Israeli health minister.)
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How does the hospitalization and death rate look on AZ?
 
Kicker4Life said:
How does the hospitalization and death rate look on AZ?
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Deaths appear down. That may or may not reflect a reporting lag. I don’t know how quickly AZ is categorizing deaths. GA uses a 2 week window to reflect their process.

Hospital bed usage is slowly, linearly increasing. Up to about 78% of capacity for ICU, up from 62% 2 months ago.

I would expect both to lag cases anyway. The case count spike is less than 2 weeks old. If it has an associated spike in deaths, you won’t see it yet. Wait 3 weeks and we’ll know.

For now, AZ has the second highest case count growth in the US, despite having a small population. GA seems to be a much better model for getting things open.
 
Kicker4Life said:
How does the hospitalization and death rate look on AZ?
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Stable for hospitalization.

Deaths per day have been dropping. AZ re-opened a lot of biz around May 11. So we have been open about a month.

43% of all cases are from the 20-44 yr age group.

65+ constitute 17% off all cases.

Deaths?
20-44 yr olds constitute about 5% off all deaths
65+ are 77% of all deaths.

You can look at all the various #s here: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
 
Grace T. said:
We really need to have a national conversation about what roll experts should play in our planning. Absolutely talk to your doctor! A doctor can lay out for you precisely all of the risks involved. A doctor can tell you much about the current learning. A doctor can even tell you what they would do. But a doctor can't make the risk assessment FOR YOU. That's on you. And part of the problem for the doctor is that when everything is a nail, every solution is a hammer. They see only their expertise, and not the broad range of things, because life is complicated. Doctors don't opine on economics, for example. And we had epidemiologists who were blind to the other health concerns of a lockdown including suicide, depression, abuse, drug overdose, and delayed treatments, because they only saw their specialty. So they can tell us a lockdown is important for X, Y, and Z reason, but our leaders shouldn't be outsourcing decision making to them because they can't see the entire picture. It may turn out their recommendations are the right ones, but it's a broader conversation than just do X.

It's the same with a lawyer. If you were to ask a lawyer, hey I have this great idea for a new game which kids can play that involve kicking a ball around and involves some physical contact, do you think it's a good idea that I do it, the lawyer is going to say no. The lawyer will trot out the parade of horribles you have to worry about (whether abuse from coaches, to injuries, to some kid dying from heat exhaustion). The lawyer loses nothing telling you "no" because it's easier, but if the lawyer says yes and something happens then the lawyer is in trouble. The better question to ask the lawyer is what can we do that protects ourselves from the risk (e.g., insurance), but only you can decide whether the insurance is worth the bother or the cost (unless the govt tells you you must have it).

So absolutely talk to your doctor. And doctors have a huge role to play in advising us the best way to get back to school and sports. But they can only outline the risks, and ultimately it's up to us to decide whether those risks are justified for the individual situations.
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Thank you!!! I am planning on asking my doctor. But the reason I posted here for opinions are exactly what you said. A doctor will only tell me about the medical risk. I am also concerned about the emotional, social impacts which a doctor won't necessarily take into account. As others have said, only I can make the choice, but it's nice to get a few perspectives.
 
Grace T. said:
We really need to have a national conversation about what roll experts should play in our planning. Absolutely talk to your doctor! A doctor can lay out for you precisely all of the risks involved. A doctor can tell you much about the current learning. A doctor can even tell you what they would do. But a doctor can't make the risk assessment FOR YOU. That's on you. And part of the problem for the doctor is that when everything is a nail, every solution is a hammer. They see only their expertise, and not the broad range of things, because life is complicated. Doctors don't opine on economics, for example. And we had epidemiologists who were blind to the other health concerns of a lockdown including suicide, depression, abuse, drug overdose, and delayed treatments, because they only saw their specialty. So they can tell us a lockdown is important for X, Y, and Z reason, but our leaders shouldn't be outsourcing decision making to them because they can't see the entire picture. It may turn out their recommendations are the right ones, but it's a broader conversation than just do X.

It's the same with a lawyer. If you were to ask a lawyer, hey I have this great idea for a new game which kids can play that involve kicking a ball around and involves some physical contact, do you think it's a good idea that I do it, the lawyer is going to say no. The lawyer will trot out the parade of horribles you have to worry about (whether abuse from coaches, to injuries, to some kid dying from heat exhaustion). The lawyer loses nothing telling you "no" because it's easier, but if the lawyer says yes and something happens then the lawyer is in trouble. The better question to ask the lawyer is what can we do that protects ourselves from the risk (e.g., insurance), but only you can decide whether the insurance is worth the bother or the cost (unless the govt tells you you must have it).

So absolutely talk to your doctor. And doctors have a huge role to play in advising us the best way to get back to school and sports. But they can only outline the risks, and ultimately it's up to us to decide whether those risks are justified for the individual situations.
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ASK YOUR DOCTOR ONE QUESTION... IF IT WAS HIS OR HER KID WOULD YOU DO IT? If it is positive or negative you will know how they see Covid and it’s risks. Don’t rely on word of mouth from hidden agendas or bravado.
 
Grace T. said:
Small hijack here on why it may be hitting Brazil so hard. We know in both Europe and the US that this has been hitting minority communities disproportionately harder than white communities (whether African descended, Hispanic with Native American blood, or Arabic). Brazil's population is very much African descended. They also have problems in the flavellas with overcrowding. In fact, very dark skin people have been getting hit the hardest by COVID. The working theory it's because of Vitamin D (or some characteristic associated with Vitamin D production) deficiencies, and dark skin inhibits the production of vitamin D based on exposure to the sun. Indeed, even in Brazil darker skin individuals have been hit harder than mixed, lighter African or white populations. And Brazil has been hit harder than mixed Native American blood people in the rest of South America (which also has the misfortune of drifting into hard winter, where the sunlight isn't very strong).

If this theory is correct, the African American community in the United States is especially vulnerable to COVID transmission. It makes the fact that a large African American contigent participated in the protests concerning, and if COVID is trasmissible by this type of close night time contact in the open air (the anti-lockdown protests did not result in a large spike) it might lead to a spike in the coming weeks.
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I don't know the statistics of your research but here is an example of what has just happened this week. A friend went to Havasu the week before Memorial Day. Came back last Thursday sick. Long story short, she has covid. She has always been healthy, exercises, takes vitamins and spent the days outside in a boat while there. Oh and she is white. She said no one was physical distancing or wearing masks. Praying for her quick recovery.
 
Desert Hound said:
Stable for hospitalization.

Deaths per day have been dropping. AZ re-opened a lot of biz around May 11. So we have been open about a month.

43% of all cases are from the 20-44 yr age group.

65+ constitute 17% off all cases.

Deaths?
20-44 yr olds constitute about 5% off all deaths
65+ are 77% of all deaths.

You can look at all the various #s here: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
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The key data points here in my opinion is the extremely low death rate of 14.56 per 100k population and only 6.2% who take the test actually are positive... Great signs for AZ....
 
Copa9 said:
I don't know the statistics of your research but here is an example of what has just happened this week. A friend went to Havasu the week before Memorial Day. Came back last Thursday sick. Long story short, she has covid. She has always been healthy, exercises, takes vitamins and spent the days outside in a boat while there. Oh and she is white. She said no one was physical distancing or wearing masks. Praying for her quick recovery.
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Hope she recovers quickly. Has she needed to go to the ICU?
 
Your counties public heath officer all sudden has a lot of say when, how, and if things will open back up. All the places the operate have to follow there orders.

I applaud what San Diego has been doing to to advocate starting youth sports back up. Even if they had to create a local legal documents on how youth sports can get going now under day camp guidance. Might just be baby steps but why not? just have to get those facilities, cities, schools to rent there places out. This is what's going to take some time & frustration to work through. Only applies to SD so far but there is some hope

Will other counties take a similar appoarch or wait until specific youth sports guidance is issued by the state or local public health officers?

Heard High School CIF plans will be forthcoming this week. This could be big in determining a path forward for others.
 
The WHO today reported that asymptomatic transmission is very rare and is not a primary driver of the disease. Grain of salt since the WHO has been wrong about just about everything from the beginning. But if true, and if it holds up, there's no reason why schools, soccer and even tournaments can't return with strict screening protocols and temperature checks.
 
Grace T. said:
The WHO today reported that asymptomatic transmission is very rare and is not a primary driver of the disease. Grain of salt since the WHO has been wrong about just about everything from the beginning. But if true, and if it holds up, there's no reason why schools, soccer and even tournaments can't return with strict screening protocols and temperature checks.
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Israel had a bunch of high school clusters when they opened schools. Elementary seemed safe.
 
Grace T. said:
The WHO today reported that asymptomatic transmission is very rare and is not a primary driver of the disease. Grain of salt since the WHO has been wrong about just about everything from the beginning. But if true, and if it holds up, there's no reason why schools, soccer and even tournaments can't return with strict screening protocols and temperature checks.
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From The WHO.
Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn't have any symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asympomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it's being transmitted. "From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."
 
JumboJack said:
From The WHO.
Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn't have any symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asympomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it's being transmitted. "From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."
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So is the WHO a credible organization again?
 
gkmom said:
Thank you!!! I am planning on asking my doctor. But the reason I posted here for opinions are exactly what you said. A doctor will only tell me about the medical risk. I am also concerned about the emotional, social impacts which a doctor won't necessarily take into account. As others have said, only I can make the choice, but it's nice to get a few perspectives.
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I highly recommend this article. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
 
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