With the freeze on currency reserves, the withdrawal of air rights ands the removal of the lead banks from the swift system, the economic measures are beginning to have some effects. There is a run at the Russian banks underway and the ruble has lost 40% of its value. Russia is burning billions a day and will have no choice but to print money triggering inflation as 60% of its reserves are on western currency. The rest is in Chinese r and gold. The gold is problematic because of the blockade it can’t be sold in the leading market: Switzerland. And Switzerland is being pressured to join the European led economic blockade. The Chinese currency isn’t freely convertible so it isn’t much help in getting goods and materials outside of china
in a substantial escalation Belarus has now said nuclear weapons can be stationed on its territory and Ukraine is reporting that Belarus troops are now entering the conflict (with a target to sweep along the west towards Lviv to cut off western arms including old Soviet airplanes that have now been promised by the eastern NATO members). The Belarusian action will force Poland to raise its military readiness given the increased likelihood now of a border incident.
substantial escalations. This now ends in one of three ways: Putin wins in Ukraine and is able to force a settlement and a new Cold War is triggered. Putin loses and is overthrown by the leadership or the military as Russia descends into chaos. Putin who is already losing it makes a substantial escalation which potentially ends in a conflict with the west including carpet bombing Ukrainian cities, using wmds against Ukraine,an incident spins out of control with the west.
we are well beyond now a zero probability of this ending in a nuclear exchange. The only saving grace is China will think twice before invading Taiwan now.