War in Ukraine soon?

With the freeze on currency reserves, the withdrawal of air rights ands the removal of the lead banks from the swift system, the economic measures are beginning to have some effects. There is a run at the Russian banks underway and the ruble has lost 40% of its value. Russia is burning billions a day and will have no choice but to print money triggering inflation as 60% of its reserves are on western currency. The rest is in Chinese r and gold. The gold is problematic because of the blockade it can’t be sold in the leading market: Switzerland. And Switzerland is being pressured to join the European led economic blockade. The Chinese currency isn’t freely convertible so it isn’t much help in getting goods and materials outside of china

in a substantial escalation Belarus has now said nuclear weapons can be stationed on its territory and Ukraine is reporting that Belarus troops are now entering the conflict (with a target to sweep along the west towards Lviv to cut off western arms including old Soviet airplanes that have now been promised by the eastern NATO members). The Belarusian action will force Poland to raise its military readiness given the increased likelihood now of a border incident.

substantial escalations. This now ends in one of three ways: Putin wins in Ukraine and is able to force a settlement and a new Cold War is triggered. Putin loses and is overthrown by the leadership or the military as Russia descends into chaos. Putin who is already losing it makes a substantial escalation which potentially ends in a conflict with the west including carpet bombing Ukrainian cities, using wmds against Ukraine,an incident spins out of control with the west.

we are well beyond now a zero probability of this ending in a nuclear exchange. The only saving grace is China will think twice before invading Taiwan now.
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“Well, one use is for a righteous battle against oppression; the other is an infantile feet stomping against an inconvenience.”

 
The only saving grace is China will think twice before invading Taiwan now.

I thought China is already in Taiwan? They have established their capital there since they fled the mainland and their capital is now Taipei. Am I missing something?
 
“Well, one use is for a righteous battle against oppression; the other is an infantile feet stomping against an inconvenience.”

Well, as long as we are translating COVID policies into Ukraine, you can slam this as another fine mess the elites got wrong.

 
Well, as long as we are translating COVID policies into Ukraine, you can slam this as another fine mess the elites got wrong.

I stopped when I realized that this is from nearly 7 years ago, plus the fact that its over an hour long. Are there cliff notes and is it still relevant 7 years later?
 
I stopped when I realized that this is from nearly 7 years ago, plus the fact that its over an hour long. Are there cliff notes and is it still relevant 7 years later?

Its a good view. Along with Putin speech if you want to see the view from the other side.

You live in a free country, and you owe it to those who fought and died for your freedom to spend the time to listen to the other side as well. Many people only get their views from one side due to censorship.
 
Its a good view. Along with Putin speech if you want to see the view from the other side.

You live in a free country, and you owe it to those who fought and died for your freedom to spend the time to listen to the other side as well. Many people only get their views from one side due to censorship.

What do you like about Putin's speech?
 
Its a good view. Along with Putin speech if you want to see the view from the other side.

You live in a free country, and you owe it to those who fought and died for your freedom to spend the time to listen to the other side as well. Many people only get their views from one side due to censorship.
Not free right now. In order to keep your job, have to get jabbed fully. That is not free. I say no to jab and I'm ruined. Yes, I did choose to be free but it comes with a price. My best pal has blood clots because he was not free to choose at his work.
 
Looks like my liberal pals up in the Seattle area are looking to move to Montana. The Streets of Seattle are not safe any more, so he says. Maybe whatithink can chime in with his fact checker. The good cops left to other cop jobs across the country. He tried as long as he could but its dangerous in broad day light. One big homeless guy walked up to him the other day and just looked at him and my pal handed over all his cash. The homeless man said, "God bless you." It's like a street tax to be safe so to speak.
 
What do you like about Putin's speech?

He tells you why Russia is doing it. To stop NATO expansion. He gave the example of the mistake USSR made with Nazi Germany allowing it to expand to its doorstep and when WWII, USSR suffered greatly and the many lies given by the West through the years. He is not going to allow history to repeat itself. Why must NATO expand? It is obviously to contain Russia. But why, why must Russia be contained? Why is the foreign policy always be about containing another nation and maintaining military supremacy? The USA at one time also expanded Westward and fought wars against the Indians and Mexico. It is to prevent the Russians from doing the same thing? That seem absurd as nowadays, neo colonialism vs traditional colonialism works so much better and efficient.
 
He tells you why Russia is doing it. To stop NATO expansion. He gave the example of the mistake USSR made with Nazi Germany allowing it to expand to its doorstep and when WWII, USSR suffered greatly and the many lies given by the West through the years. He is not going to allow history to repeat itself. Why must NATO expand? It is obviously to contain Russia. But why, why must Russia be contained? Why is the foreign policy always be about containing another nation and maintaining military supremacy? The USA at one time also expanded Westward and fought wars against the Indians and Mexico. It is to prevent the Russians from doing the same thing? That seem absurd as nowadays, neo colonialism vs traditional colonialism works so much better and efficient.
That's some amount of waffle. Hitler & Stalin signed a pact, and invaded Poland from opposite sides, so the USSR "allowing" (allowing LMAO) Nazi Germany to expand is utter nonsense.

Putin's NATO expansion argument is also BS. Essentially, he is saying that Russia gets to dictate to any country that borders it whatever Russia wants. Russia gets a veto on what you can join or who you can join. What exactly gives Russia that "right"? Russia should get over its inferiority complex.

It's hilarious that Putin has managed to do the opposite of what he intended, I expect, in just a few short days. The EU buying arms, Germany supplying arms, Sweden supplying arms, Germany increasing defense spending, Switzerland getting involved in sanctions, Sweden and Finland making noises about joining Nato.

If he thought, in his obviously deluded & paranoid brain, that they were all against Russia (they weren't), well, they are now.

Putin would be better served asking himself why all these countries are eager to join Nato or the EU versus do whatever Russia wants. Maybe Nato & the EU are not the problem, maybe Russia (or its "my way or I invade you" approach) is.
 
That's some amount of waffle. Hitler & Stalin signed a pact, and invaded Poland from opposite sides, so the USSR "allowing" (allowing LMAO) Nazi Germany to expand is utter nonsense.

Putin's NATO expansion argument is also BS. Essentially, he is saying that Russia gets to dictate to any country that borders it whatever Russia wants. Russia gets a veto on what you can join or who you can join. What exactly gives Russia that "right"? Russia should get over its inferiority complex.

It's hilarious that Putin has managed to do the opposite of what he intended, I expect, in just a few short days. The EU buying arms, Germany supplying arms, Sweden supplying arms, Germany increasing defense spending, Switzerland getting involved in sanctions, Sweden and Finland making noises about joining Nato.

If he thought, in his obviously deluded & paranoid brain, that they were all against Russia (they weren't), well, they are now.

Putin would be better served asking himself why all these countries are eager to join Nato or the EU versus do whatever Russia wants. Maybe Nato & the EU are not the problem, maybe Russia (or its "my way or I invade you" approach) is.

I think this is two simplistic. There's been two explanations offered about Putin: one he's a meglomaniac that's especially gone off the deep end with COVID and has a fantasy he wants to realize about rebuilding the Russian empire. Two he's a rationale actor behaving in the security interests of Russia and he could not tolerate having a democratic and EU/NATO friendly country so close to his border, given the long Russian history of repelling invaders, and given his own fragile position as a dictator.

They are both probably true. One is the emotional side of Putin and the other is the thinking side of Putin. If the United States had joined with Russia to force the findlandization of the Ukraine and the secession of certain Russian backed areas, it's entirely possible that the current crisis could have been avoided. It's also entirely possible that Putin (like Hitler after the Anschluss) would have been incentivized to look for more places to loot and the Baltics would be in his cross hairs two years from now. It's impossible to determine when history turns on the actions of one man, who is deeply emotionally invested in this and not totally 100 percent sane.

But it is true that our elites entirely misread this coming (except for maybe Mitt Romney) and did everything possible to prod Russia along (whether Germany denuclearizing and approving the pipe line, the US reversing domestic energy independence, holding out Ukrainian NATO membership). The elites (both R and D) are obsessed with building democracy around the world, which led us to the ill thought out venture to build a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan.
 
I think this is two simplistic. There's been two explanations offered about Putin: one he's a meglomaniac that's especially gone off the deep end with COVID and has a fantasy he wants to realize about rebuilding the Russian empire. Two he's a rationale actor behaving in the security interests of Russia and he could not tolerate having a democratic and EU/NATO friendly country so close to his border, given the long Russian history of repelling invaders, and given his own fragile position as a dictator.

They are both probably true. One is the emotional side of Putin and the other is the thinking side of Putin. If the United States had joined with Russia to force the findlandization of the Ukraine and the secession of certain Russian backed areas, it's entirely possible that the current crisis could have been avoided. It's also entirely possible that Putin (like Hitler after the Anschluss) would have been incentivized to look for more places to loot and the Baltics would be in his cross hairs two years from now. It's impossible to determine when history turns on the actions of one man, who is deeply emotionally invested in this and not totally 100 percent sane.

But it is true that our elites entirely misread this coming (except for maybe Mitt Romney) and did everything possible to prod Russia along (whether Germany denuclearizing and approving the pipe line, the US reversing domestic energy independence, holding out Ukrainian NATO membership). The elites (both R and D) are obsessed with building democracy around the world, which led us to the ill thought out venture to build a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan.

Slow down and think about what you mean before you post, or you will end up with more drivel like this.
 
I think this is two simplistic. There's been two explanations offered about Putin: one he's a meglomaniac that's especially gone off the deep end with COVID and has a fantasy he wants to realize about rebuilding the Russian empire. Two he's a rationale actor behaving in the security interests of Russia and he could not tolerate having a democratic and EU/NATO friendly country so close to his border, given the long Russian history of repelling invaders, and given his own fragile position as a dictator.

They are both probably true. One is the emotional side of Putin and the other is the thinking side of Putin. If the United States had joined with Russia to force the findlandization of the Ukraine and the secession of certain Russian backed areas, it's entirely possible that the current crisis could have been avoided. It's also entirely possible that Putin (like Hitler after the Anschluss) would have been incentivized to look for more places to loot and the Baltics would be in his cross hairs two years from now. It's impossible to determine when history turns on the actions of one man, who is deeply emotionally invested in this and not totally 100 percent sane.

But it is true that our elites entirely misread this coming (except for maybe Mitt Romney) and did everything possible to prod Russia along (whether Germany denuclearizing and approving the pipe line, the US reversing domestic energy independence, holding out Ukrainian NATO membership). The elites (both R and D) are obsessed with building democracy around the world, which led us to the ill thought out venture to build a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan.
There are already Nato countries on Russia's borders. Russia's problem is that they want to tell countries what to do, but those countries want to do what's in their long term economic interest. There's a reason countries want to join the EU because it makes them more prosperous longer term. Being Russia's beetch doesn't. Nato brings security. The Eastern European countries know what its like to be under the Russian hammer and know what happens if you don't tow the line with what has happened in Georgia, then Crimea, now Ukraine - not to mention Chechnya. There is nothing rational about Putin's approach. There has been nothing rational about his approach. He has been appeased for far too long. Romney was on the money.

When Switzerland is supporting and imposing sanctions and Sweden/Finland are openly talking about Nato membership and Germany is ramping up its military, you know that the Europeans are recognizing a generational threat.

WRT the approach to Russia, i.e. engaging with and embracing it into the capitalist world ... I don't see that as being fundamentally wrong. The line in the sand should have been with Georgia though, back in 2008. The west was distracted with an economic meltdown though.

This has started a European arms race, and those don't end well in Europe. Even if Putin backs down - which would seem unrealistic - that genie will not be going back in the bottle.
 
That's some amount of waffle. Hitler & Stalin signed a pact, and invaded Poland from opposite sides, so the USSR "allowing" (allowing LMAO) Nazi Germany to expand is utter nonsense.



If you would like to counter his argument, please quote his speech directly. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24 I am a novice at the Russian Ukrainian conflict. I am a person who is trying to exercise my freedom of living in a free country by ensuring that I get the story from boths sides.

The relevant passage is
Of course, this situation begs a question: what next, what are we to expect? If history is any guide, we know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.

As a result, the country was not prepared to counter the invasion by Nazi Germany, which attacked our Motherland on June 22, 1941, without declaring war. The country stopped the enemy and went on to defeat it, but this came at a tremendous cost.


Putin's NATO expansion argument is also BS.

This is absolutely no BS. NATO has only one aim left in Europe and that is eventual containment of Rusia. It may not happen in the next 10 years, but it will happen in the next 100. Maybe if there is a Orange revolution in Moscow or something to that effect that installs a pro Western government in Moscow then it will not happen.

Is this not like the Cuban Missile Crisis? Was the US not allowing Cuba to have missiles that Russia "USA gets to dictate to any country that borders it whatever Russia USA wants. Russia USA gets a veto on what you can join have or who you can join have. What exactly gives Russia USA that "right"? Russia USA should get over its inferiority complex. " <-------------- Your quote mostly.
 
If you would like to counter his argument, please quote his speech directly. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24 I am a novice at the Russian Ukrainian conflict. I am a person who is trying to exercise my freedom of living in a free country by ensuring that I get the story from boths sides.

The relevant passage is
Of course, this situation begs a question: what next, what are we to expect? If history is any guide, we know that in 1940 and early 1941 the Soviet Union went to great lengths to prevent war or at least delay its outbreak. To this end, the USSR sought not to provoke the potential aggressor until the very end by refraining or postponing the most urgent and obvious preparations it had to make to defend itself from an imminent attack. When it finally acted, it was too late.

As a result, the country was not prepared to counter the invasion by Nazi Germany, which attacked our Motherland on June 22, 1941, without declaring war. The country stopped the enemy and went on to defeat it, but this came at a tremendous cost.




This is absolutely no BS. NATO has only one aim left in Europe and that is eventual containment of Rusia. It may not happen in the next 10 years, but it will happen in the next 100. Maybe if there is a Orange revolution in Moscow or something to that effect that installs a pro Western government in Moscow then it will not happen.

Is this not like the Cuban Missile Crisis? Was the US not allowing Cuba to have missiles that Russia "USA gets to dictate to any country that borders it whatever Russia USA wants. Russia USA gets a veto on what you can join have or who you can join have. What exactly gives Russia USA that "right"? Russia USA should get over its inferiority complex. " <-------------- Your quote mostly.

At one time you claimed to be a leftist progressive. Lately you have been posting in support of the world's biggest fascists.

Are you just looking for attention?
 
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There are already Nato countries on Russia's borders. Russia's problem is that they want to tell countries what to do, but those countries want to do what's in their long term economic interest. There's a reason countries want to join the EU because it makes them more prosperous longer term. Being Russia's beetch doesn't. Nato brings security. The Eastern European countries know what its like to be under the Russian hammer and know what happens if you don't tow the line with what has happened in Georgia, then Crimea, now Ukraine - not to mention Chechnya. There is nothing rational about Putin's approach. There has been nothing rational about his approach. He has been appeased for far too long. Romney was on the money.

When Switzerland is supporting and imposing sanctions and Sweden/Finland are openly talking about Nato membership and Germany is ramping up its military, you know that the Europeans are recognizing a generational threat.

WRT the approach to Russia, i.e. engaging with and embracing it into the capitalist world ... I don't see that as being fundamentally wrong. The line in the sand should have been with Georgia though, back in 2008. The west was distracted with an economic meltdown though.

This has started a European arms race, and those don't end well in Europe. Even if Putin backs down - which would seem unrealistic - that genie will not be going back in the bottle.
I was there at the very beginning after the fall of the ussr sitting in a dorm room at Moscow state university with the other research assistants and translators (all Ivy League college and grad students) thinking they were doing gods work by transforming Russia into a democracy. I still remember the naive and hopelessly romantic views. One guy argued we had to make sure the Russians in this new progressive utopia adopted gay marriage with a marriage clause in their constitution (how’d that go? Russia is one of the most anti gay places on earth). Another that the one thing we had to preserve was their government run health care (having gone to a soviet clinic on a student trip in Pskov with a classmate when he broke his arm playing football that one made me choke). One guy who came from my college insisted that the most important thing was that the Russians “never get trickle down economics”…this guy was on the Econ privatization team which should have been focused on avoiding the looting of state run enterprises by the well connected

my professor nailed it…on the con law committee warned them they should limit the president to two terms not two consecutive terms and predicted what Putin would later do. But she was an African American woman and being as racists as they are hated her for that so they ignored her and listened to the Germans instead.

This is all ultimately our own leaderships fault. In their arrogance like 2008 and covid before it, they botched it
 
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