War in Ukraine soon?

[whatithink]

Desperate for an argument? You seemed to be begging for an argument when you said "that type of hyperbolic nonsense is ridiculous". In the past our debates have always been civil and focused on substance, not unsubstantiated exclamations or arguably ad-hominems.

If I'm misquoting your position on Palestinians, then my apologies. My recollection is that you said most Palestinians were in favor of a two state solution and that Israelis were responsible, in part, for the plight of Palestinians. It seemed pretty obvious to me that you were trying to "both-sides" the conflict. Now given what we've seen the last couple of months maybe your position has changed, or maybe I just assumed too much. I admit to being triggered by the pervasive Jew hate I've seen the last couple of months in our own country, mostly in our academic and political institutions. The rank hypocrisy from many "progressives" (kudos though to Dems like Schumer, C. Coumo, Maher), and the lack of accountability for Jew hate, has been mind boggling to me. At the time, you questioned who was rationalizing the murder of Jews. Given what has occurred over the last couple of months, I trust you clearly see that there are many from the "pro-Palestinian" side that are in fact doing just that, but I also consider not condemning the genocide of Jews to be the same as rationalizing it...but maybe that's just me. It's disappointing to see how the condemnation of hate is conditioned on someone's political narrative.

I consider it hyperbole because part of Putin's public rational was that Ukraine was going to join NATO, and part of the pacification attempts were to get Ukraine to commit never to join. Once in NATO, Putin never attacks. If Russia has learnt anything in the last 2 years its that they have zero chance against NATO unless they are prepared to go nuclear, and then we are all fucked.

Gaza and the West Bank are literally call the "occupied territories", not my phrase. Gaza in particular has been locked down by Israel for years. There's nothing in those statements that support Hamas or condones anything they have done. I have zero issue with Israel's right to defend itself or its desire to eradicate those that committed the atrocities on Oct 7th. I also have no truck with the "indiscriminate" (not my term either) killing of thousands of innocents. I can comfortably have both views. I see no incompatibility in having both either.

I also find the anti jewish sentiments on the rise disgusting. They should have no place in any society.

 

[watfly]

I consider it hyperbole because part of Putin's public rational was that Ukraine was going to join NATO, and part of the pacification attempts were to get Ukraine to commit never to join. Once in NATO, Putin never attacks. If Russia has learnt anything in the last 2 years its that they have zero chance against NATO unless they are prepared to go nuclear, and then we are all fucked.

Gaza and the West Bank are literally call the "occupied territories", not my phrase. Gaza in particular has been locked down by Israel for years. There's nothing in those statements that support Hamas or condones anything they have done. I have zero issue with Israel's right to defend itself or its desire to eradicate those that committed the atrocities on Oct 7th. I also have no truck with the "indiscriminate" (not my term either) killing of thousands of innocents. I can comfortably have both views. I see no incompatibility in having both either.

I also find the anti jewish sentiments on the rise disgusting. They should have no place in any society.

I guess when Russia threatens to attack Poland, I take them at their word that it's at least a possibility. Not a wise one, but neither was invading Ukraine.

I'm not seeing any critical mass of Palestinians supporting a two-state solution, there is some lip service to it, but zero actions indicating that they could abide by "peace for land" conditions (now or historically). The prominent ideology from Palestinians appears to favor "from the river to the sea".

Gaza is locked down for very good reason, its a terrorist state. Gaza is in lockdown, not just by Israel, but also by Egypt while many other Arab states want nothing to do with the Palestinians due to there radical tendencies. When they weren't being assaulted, Israel allowed Gazan laborers to freely cross into Israel to earn better wages (wages were slashed by Hamas due to Hama's own corruption and incompetence). In fact, a couple of weeks before the Oct 7 attacks Israel made a number of economic concessions to Hamas. In addition, there are nearly as many Palestinians that live freely in Israel as there are Palestinians that live under Sharia Law in Gaza.

 

[whatithink]

I guess when Russia threatens to attack Poland, I take them at their word that it's at least a possibility. Not a wise one, but neither was invading Ukraine.

I'm not seeing any critical mass of Palestinians supporting a two-state solution, there is some lip service to it, but zero actions indicating that they could abide by "peace for land" conditions (now or historically). The prominent ideology from Palestinians appears to favor "from the river to the sea".

Gaza is locked down for very good reason, its a terrorist state. Gaza is in lockdown, not just by Israel, but also by Egypt while many other Arab states want nothing to do with the Palestinians due to there radical tendencies. When they weren't being assaulted, Israel allowed Gazan laborers to freely cross into Israel to earn better wages (wages were slashed by Hamas due to Hama's own corruption and incompetence). In fact, a couple of weeks before the Oct 7 attacks Israel made a number of economic concessions to Hamas. In addition, there are nearly as many Palestinians that live freely in Israel as there are Palestinians that live under Sharia Law in Gaza.

Hamas rules Gaza with an iron fist. The majority never voted for them and have never known a life without them. They also have zero ability to change that as Hamas have the guns and control all food, water, medicine, power etc., which bizarrely enough is "granted" to them by Israel who control it all ultimately. Egypt don't want 2.2M Palestinians flooding south to get out of Gaza (then or now), why would they?

Gaza is not a state. It doesn't have an airport, it doesn't have a port. It has zero control over what comes in, that's all Israel.

Hamas are clearly not the answer, any more than the PA are the answer, as they are not that much better, ruling the West Bank with an iron fist, no democratic elections (although no Sharia Law ...).

Per the IDF the ratio of civilian to Hamas militant deaths is about 2:1, so 2 innocents for every 1 militant. Israel also says that there were 30,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza. So to irradicate them at this rate, they will also kill 60,000 innocents.

BTW, there are plenty on the Israeli right who would happily take the "from the river to the sea" phrase and apply it to Israel, expelling all Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank. The settlers are their vanguard and they are active in the current Israeli administration up to ministerial level.

Once this is done, a new generation of Palestinians will hate Israel. Hamas may be eradicated, but in a few short years something worse may take their place unless something is done to actually help Palestinians. I don't see how continuing on the current path is in the long term interests of Israel and nothing from the Israeli gvt statements (that I've seen) suggest they have any plan for "after".

I have no idea how this gets solved long term, but killing large numbers of Palestinians every few years clearly isn't the answer. It does involve a shift in leadership on both sides from the extremes but that seems very unlikely at the moment, so more innocents on all sides continue to die.

 

[crush]

I guess when Russia threatens to attack Poland, I take them at their word that it's at least a possibility. Not a wise one, but neither was invading Ukraine.

I'm not seeing any critical mass of Palestinians supporting a two-state solution, there is some lip service to it, but zero actions indicating that they could abide by "peace for land" conditions (now or historically). The prominent ideology from Palestinians appears to favor "from the river to the sea".

Gaza is locked down for very good reason, its a terrorist state. Gaza is in lockdown, not just by Israel, but also by Egypt while many other Arab states want nothing to do with the Palestinians due to there radical tendencies. When they weren't being assaulted, Israel allowed Gazan laborers to freely cross into Israel to earn better wages (wages were slashed by Hamas due to Hama's own corruption and incompetence). In fact, a couple of weeks before the Oct 7 attacks Israel made a number of economic concessions to Hamas. In addition, there are nearly as many Palestinians that live freely in Israel as there are Palestinians that live under Sharia Law in Gaza.

20,000 have died in Gaza. How many were Hamas Terrorist? War is shit bro. I know you stand with Ukraine as well. I stand with, "stop fucking wars." Both sides of any war have innocent civilians caught in the middle while those at the very top make money.

 

[watfly]

Hamas rules Gaza with an iron fist. The majority never voted for them and have never known a life without them. They also have zero ability to change that as Hamas have the guns and control all food, water, medicine, power etc., which bizarrely enough is "granted" to them by Israel who control it all ultimately. Egypt don't want 2.2M Palestinians flooding south to get out of Gaza (then or now), why would they?

Gaza is not a state. It doesn't have an airport, it doesn't have a port. It has zero control over what comes in, that's all Israel.

Hamas are clearly not the answer, any more than the PA are the answer, as they are not that much better, ruling the West Bank with an iron fist, no democratic elections (although no Sharia Law ...).

Per the IDF the ratio of civilian to Hamas militant deaths is about 2:1, so 2 innocents for every 1 militant. Israel also says that there were 30,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza. So to irradicate them at this rate, they will also kill 60,000 innocents.

BTW, there are plenty on the Israeli right who would happily take the "from the river to the sea" phrase and apply it to Israel, expelling all Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank. The settlers are their vanguard and they are active in the current Israeli administration up to ministerial level.

Once this is done, a new generation of Palestinians will hate Israel. Hamas may be eradicated, but in a few short years something worse may take their place unless something is done to actually help Palestinians. I don't see how continuing on the current path is in the long term interests of Israel and nothing from the Israeli gvt statements (that I've seen) suggest they have any plan for "after".

I have no idea how this gets solved long term, but killing large numbers of Palestinians every few years clearly isn't the answer. It does involve a shift in leadership on both sides from the extremes but that seems very unlikely at the moment, so more innocents on all sides continue to die.

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but you seem to draw a distinct line between Palestinians and Hamas. Based on both historical precedent and what I've seen the last couple months, I can't suspend reality to get to your conclusion. Nor can I reconcile any material degree of "both-side'ism" in this conflict. Remember, there was a cease fire on October 6, 2023. Practically every day I see something that blurs the lines between Palestinians and Hamas. This is the latest.

Female hostage seen screaming 'likely kidnapped by CIVILIANS'

The world watched in horror as video emerged of Noa Argamani, 26, sitting on the back of a motorbike, her faced etched with fear as she screamed 'Don't kill me' to the men surrounding her.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Your calculation of "innocents" is likely greatly overstated. Certainly, count children. but I'd be cautious of counting all men and women. And I'm not saying they deserve death, but they should surrender and release the hostages. Death to innocents can be avoided if Hamas and civilian kidnappers release the hostages and surrender.

Palestinians will always hate Israel and Jews, but that's because of radical Islam. That's the plight of Palestinians.

Yes, you're correct Gaza isn't a state, that was ineloquent on my part. There has never been a Palestinian state which is why the claims of taking Palestinian territory is in some ways misleading. Palestinians love to show maps of how much territory they've lost while never showing all the land still occupied by Palestinians in Israel.

 

[whatithink]

I don't disagree with much of what you said, but you seem to draw a distinct line between Palestinians and Hamas. Based on both historical precedent and what I've seen the last couple months, I can't suspend reality to get to your conclusion. Nor can I reconcile any material degree of "both-side'ism" in this conflict. Remember, there was a cease fire on October 6, 2023. Practically every day I see something that blurs the lines between Palestinians and Hamas. This is the latest.

Female hostage seen screaming 'likely kidnapped by CIVILIANS'

The world watched in horror as video emerged of Noa Argamani, 26, sitting on the back of a motorbike, her faced etched with fear as she screamed 'Don't kill me' to the men surrounding her.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Your calculation of "innocents" is likely greatly overstated. Certainly, count children. but I'd be cautious of counting all men and women. And I'm not saying they deserve death, but they should surrender and release the hostages. Death to innocents can be avoided if Hamas and civilian kidnappers release the hostages and surrender.

Palestinians will always hate Israel and Jews, but that's because of radical Islam. That's the plight of Palestinians.

Yes, you're correct Gaza isn't a state, that was ineloquent on my part. There has never been a Palestinian state which is why the claims of taking Palestinian territory is in some ways misleading. Palestinians love to show maps of how much territory they've lost while never showing all the land still occupied by Palestinians in Israel.

I doubt the IDF are greatly overstating the number of innocents in their 2:1 metric. Who exactly should these Palestinian civilians surrender to? Hamas isn't surrendering any time soon. In fact recent surveys suggest that support for Hamas in Gaza, the West Bank and in Arab and Muslim countries in general has risen since the Israeli offensive.

The Palestinians lived in Palestine prior to the state of Israel, they were removed. I would imagine that is the origin of any hate. The radical Islam piece is a recent manifestation. Your statement on the land they still have is very selective and ignores the mass expulsions in 1948. None of that disputes the current status quo, i.e. Israel exists and has a right to do so and protect itself.

 

[watfly]

I doubt the IDF are greatly overstating the number of innocents in their 2:1 metric. Who exactly should these Palestinian civilians surrender to? Hamas isn't surrendering any time soon. In fact recent surveys suggest that support for Hamas in Gaza, the West Bank and in Arab and Muslim countries in general has risen since the Israeli offensive.

The Palestinians lived in Palestine prior to the state of Israel, they were removed. I would imagine that is the origin of any hate. The radical Islam piece is a recent manifestation. Your statement on the land they still have is very selective and ignores the mass expulsions in 1948. None of that disputes the current status quo, i.e. Israel exists and has a right to do so and protect itself.

The Palestinian civilians and Hamas that kidnapped or participated in the atrocities against Jews should surrender to Israel for prosecution.

Like you mentioned previously most Gazans living today didn't vote for Hamas. By the same token most Gazans today haven't had any land taken from them by Israel. Any actions taken by Israel against Gazans in the last couple of decades has been a direct result of actions initiated by Hamas. Jewish hate by Palestinians is passed down and in many ways cultural. While the bar may be low, who treats Palestinians better? Israel or Hamas (who are Palestinians themselves)? That answer is pretty obvious, while not perfect, Palestinians living in Israel are treated far better than those living in Gaza. It's as simple as Democracy vs. Sharia law.

Innocents are being killed because Hamas uses them as human shields. It's tactical to gain sympathy from those that don't understand the conflict or don't understand how Hamas operates.

You seem to hang some of your argument on the fact that the majority didn't vote for Hamas, and that that equates to not supporting Hamas. That's a leap and even if they didn't support Hamas many still support hatred of Israel. Most pro-Palestinian protests involve elements of hate towards Jews and oftentimes explicit or implicit support of Hamas.

Support for Hamas Terror at Anti-Israel Rallies Across the U.S.

A day after Hamas’s Oct 7, 2023 invasion of Israel, when hundreds of Israelis were killed, anti-Israel activist organizations held at least 39 rallies in the U.S.

www.adl.org

If as you claim, the majority of Palestinians are anti-Hamas, where are all the anti-Hamas protests outside of Gaza, where there is not threat of Hamas? I haven't seen any evidence that there have been such protests or calls against Hamas since the atrocities.

I appreciate your sympathy for Palestinians (and the children that are innocent victims of radicalization) and your desire to help them. However, Palestinians current plight is self inflicted and they need to help themselves before anyone else can help them. While that sounds harsh and non-PC, it's what the evidence currently supports.

 

[whatithink]

The Palestinian civilians and Hamas that kidnapped or participated in the atrocities against Jews should surrender to Israel for prosecution.

Like you mentioned previously most Gazans living today didn't vote for Hamas. By the same token most Gazans today haven't had any land taken from them by Israel. Any actions taken by Israel against Gazans in the last couple of decades has been a direct result of actions initiated by Hamas. Jewish hate by Palestinians is passed down and in many ways cultural. While the bar may be low, who treats Palestinians better? Israel or Hamas (who are Palestinians themselves)? That answer is pretty obvious, while not perfect, Palestinians living in Israel are treated far better than those living in Gaza. It's as simple as Democracy vs. Sharia law.

Innocents are being killed because Hamas uses them as human shields. It's tactical to gain sympathy from those that don't understand the conflict or don't understand how Hamas operates.

You seem to hang some of your argument on the fact that the majority didn't vote for Hamas, and that that equates to not supporting Hamas. That's a leap and even if they didn't support Hamas many still support hatred of Israel. Most pro-Palestinian protests involve elements of hate towards Jews and oftentimes explicit or implicit support of Hamas.

Support for Hamas Terror at Anti-Israel Rallies Across the U.S.

A day after Hamas’s Oct 7, 2023 invasion of Israel, when hundreds of Israelis were killed, anti-Israel activist organizations held at least 39 rallies in the U.S.

www.adl.org

If as you claim, the majority of Palestinians are anti-Hamas, where are all the anti-Hamas protests outside of Gaza, where there is not threat of Hamas? I haven't seen any evidence that there have been such protests or calls against Hamas since the atrocities.

I appreciate your sympathy for Palestinians (and the children that are innocent victims of radicalization) and your desire to help them. However, Palestinians current plight is self inflicted and they need to help themselves before anyone else can help them. While that sounds harsh and non-PC, it's what the evidence currently supports.

This seems like a talking point you've picked up somewhere or made up, "The Palestinian civilians and Hamas that kidnapped", i.e. equating civilians with Hamas, and by extension justifies their deaths. I've not seen it before but obviously I've seen like media management.

It seems to me that Palestinians want either their own state or to be equal citizens in an Israeli state. Israel wants neither of those two things, certainly not the latter as Jews would be a minority and not the former as that would likely be a hostile state (to Israel).

Israeli citizens who are Palestinians are citizens with all those rights. If that's the answer, grant the same to those in Gaza and the West Bank. They have no citizenship, no rights, and exist based on the benevolence of others, be that Israeli, the UN, various charities etc.

Innocents are being killed, because they are being killed. Neither Hamas who are hiding behind them or the IDF who are knowing killing them have any moral high ground on that score.

I mentioned the voting in passing, in both Gaza and the West Bank. I also mentioned recent opinion polls which state support for Hamas is on the rise. Ultimately if you give someone nothing to strive for or hope for, but just expect them to live is pretty abject poverty and misery, now and for the foreseeable future, then what do you expect to happen?

Israel cannot defeat Hamas ideologically with what its doing. They can cripple them militarily, but then what, because in a few short years, those arms will be replenished and thousands more will have joined with the memory of this - 20K dead & 50K injured to date.

 

[watfly]

This seems like a talking point you've picked up somewhere or made up, "The Palestinian civilians and Hamas that kidnapped", i.e. equating civilians with Hamas, and by extension justifies their deaths. I've not seen it before but obviously I've seen like media management.

It seems to me that Palestinians want either their own state or to be equal citizens in an Israeli state. Israel wants neither of those two things, certainly not the latter as Jews would be a minority and not the former as that would likely be a hostile state (to Israel).

Israeli citizens who are Palestinians are citizens with all those rights. If that's the answer, grant the same to those in Gaza and the West Bank. They have no citizenship, no rights, and exist based on the benevolence of others, be that Israeli, the UN, various charities etc.

Innocents are being killed, because they are being killed. Neither Hamas who are hiding behind them or the IDF who are knowing killing them have any moral high ground on that score.

I mentioned the voting in passing, in both Gaza and the West Bank. I also mentioned recent opinion polls which state support for Hamas is on the rise. Ultimately if you give someone nothing to strive for or hope for, but just expect them to live is pretty abject poverty and misery, now and for the foreseeable future, then what do you expect to happen?

Israel cannot defeat Hamas ideologically with what its doing. They can cripple them militarily, but then what, because in a few short years, those arms will be replenished and thousands more will have joined with the memory of this - 20K dead & 50K injured to date.

I posted the story that Palestine civilians participated in at least some of the kidnappings. So maybe because it doesn't fit your narrative, you believe its a talking point of mine. You've posted nothing to indicate that Palestinians oppose Hamas, or are willing to support a two-state solution (other than lip service). I've posted plenty of evidence to the contrary. Wishful thinking is not evidence.

Agree completely with your last statement because hatred of Jews is "hereditary" so to speak. Some group will always rise up to exploit that, unfortunately a radical one. I have a hard time getting to the "bleeding heart" part when their poverty and misery is primarily self inflicted (maybe its a character fault of mine). Is Israel historically without sin, no, but for the current conflict I can't rationalize any blame on their part, mistakes maybe, but not blame.

It's fair to ask what Israel's end game is with its current actions. I think we both share similar concerns. Rebuild, etc.

On another note, Happy Holidays to you and your family. (Sincerely...I don't take any malice from your posts, nor do I hope you take malice from mine. I'm thankful that neither of us are directly involved in the conflict).

 

[crush]

I posted the story that Palestine civilians participated in at least some of the kidnappings. So maybe because it doesn't fit your narrative, you believe its a talking point of mine. You've posted nothing to indicate that Palestinians oppose Hamas, or are willing to support a two-state solution (other than lip service). I've posted plenty of evidence to the contrary. Wishful thinking is not evidence.

Agree completely with your last statement because hatred of Jews is "hereditary" so to speak. Some group will always rise up to exploit that, unfortunately a radical one. I have a hard time getting to the "bleeding heart" part when their poverty and misery is primarily self inflicted (maybe its a character fault of mine). Is Israel historically without sin, no, but for the current conflict I can't rationalize any blame on their part, mistakes maybe, but not blame.

It's fair to ask what Israel's end game is with its current actions. I think we both share similar concerns. Rebuild, etc.

On another note, Happy Holidays to you and your family. (Sincerely...I don't take any malice from your posts, nor do I hope you take malice from mine. I'm thankful that neither of us are directly involved in the conflict).

Thoughts @watfly

 

[crush]

RIP Gonzalo. Please Watty, no more wars bro. I will eat crow right now and say I was all for the wars after 911. I was dead wrong. It's strange because all my lib pals were antiwar back then and now it's reversed. Crazy!!!

 

[crush]

"GOP/Dem warmongers didn’t listen when we called out Zelensky for arresting an American journalist and now he’s dead. Murdered by the Zelensky regime, Gonzalo Lira. Say his name you NeoCon cowards." DC Draino