Vaccine

"Medical science didn’t change, the political science did"...Bingo!
 
What causes the vax peak to be earlier than unvax? I see it other places, too.

Dunno, but you could bin the fraction of the total area under the curve at different time intervals to see if the profiles were in fact really different. If so, one simple idea is that the vaxx population is heterogenous, like if there was a more susceptible sub-group that had been vaxxed 8-10 months ago but not boosted, something like that. That could front load the profile.
 
Um, what are you trying to convey?

The reporting bias of those without risk or symptoms in the absence of mandatory testing?

Or.. that a sliver of the population is more likely to get infected by a virus novel to their immune system sans vaccination or prior infection.

Both should appear obvious to all adults, if not… well, Darwin’s theory will work things out in the end.

Convey....the vaxx held up well against omicron in New York city, like I said. It curbed cases. Reporting bias.....so, your hypothesis is that vaxxed people hide positive test results or something? OK. I guess I tend to think that anybody who goes to the trouble to get a logged lab test probably has a reason, from tracking cases through a team to blood O2 dipping below 90. Sliver....which population? NYC? Something like 2-3 million cases in a city of 8-9 million. Maybe that counts as a sliver, but in that case you should not get first dibs on the pie at Thanksgiving. Darwin...always has his say. But much of the erstwhile selective pressures in this particular go around are being exerted post-reproduction. Modification, but no descent.
 
Um, what are you trying to convey?

The reporting bias of those without risk or symptoms in the absence of mandatory testing?

Or.. that a sliver of the population is more likely to get infected by a virus novel to their immune system sans vaccination or prior infection.

Both should appear obvious to all adults, if not… well, Darwin’s theory will work things out in the end.
You’re not going to get there by starting with the political conclusion and back filling the logic.

The question is real. Why are vax case rates peaking earlier? You can see it in the curves. NYC unvax case rate is still rising while their vax rates are dropping.

Vax/unvax reporting bias doesn’t really wash as an explanation. Even if only 10% of vax cases get reported, that just forces the curve lower. It doesn‘t change the peak timing unless you have some reason that the reporting bias would change over time. To explain those curves, you would have to have the scale of reporting bias change by 30% or so over 2 weeks. Seems highly unlikely.

More likely there is something with less than even mixing of populations. vax folks being exposed to other vax folks. unvax being exposed to other unvax. Or something else I can’t think of.
 
You’re not going to get there by starting with the political conclusion and back filling the logic.

The question is real. Why are vax case rates peaking earlier? You can see it in the curves. NYC unvax case rate is still rising while their vax rates are dropping.

Vax/unvax reporting bias doesn’t really wash as an explanation. Even if only 10% of vax cases get reported, that just forces the curve lower. It doesn‘t change the peak timing unless you have some reason that the reporting bias would change over time. To explain those curves, you would have to have the scale of reporting bias change by 30% or so over 2 weeks. Seems highly unlikely.

More likely there is something with less than even mixing of populations. vax folks being exposed to other vax folks. unvax being exposed to other unvax. Or something else I can’t think of.
How much earlier? My thought would be that an unvaccinated person is less likely to test than a vaccinated person and will only test after symptoms become reasonably severe while those who are vaccinated are likely to test as soon as they have mild symptoms. Although, I can't imagine it would push things out much more than a week, if that. I have to wonder if the testing of asymptomatic people is creating some strange results considering you can test positive weeks after you have gotten over the virus.
 
Sooo kids suffer for the sake of adults who can’t/won’t take care of themselves?

Maybe a health mandate is in order over masking kids.

What was that obesity factor amongst severe Covid affects again?
Are you fat-shaming the obese? Where’s their freedom? Is there a body type that should be seen as ideal? Maybe we could start youth clubs to promote such ideas and to groom out the undesirables that may hinder our great American destiny! Eh Jojo?
 
Are you fat-shaming the obese? Where’s their freedom? Is there a body type that should be seen as ideal? Maybe we could start youth clubs to promote such ideas and to groom out the undesirables that may hinder our great American destiny! Eh Jojo?
It like turnabout is fair play…..it’s funny coming from you. Because reducing obesity would save more lives than masking kids ever would.

oh wait, its my body my choice right? Until it’s not….
 
NJ 3-year-old kicked out of speech therapy due to mask mandates: 'Catastrophic moral crime'
The boy's mother was told, 'If you don't put a mask on your son, we can't provide services' — she tells Fox News Digital exactly what happened

Poor little guy and his mom. I pray this can end soon fellas. Masking the kids and using them as pawns is cruel and will be dealt with severely. The sad TRUTH, this is just the tip of the pure evil spear of what these monsters have done to our children. I tried to warn you guys but most just mock me. Karma is coming and those who abuse kids will have custom millstone all made out for them.
 
The 180 degree turn over the past month is very interesting. Polling is terrible for the dems. Now they want to change the calculus.

One of the things the Biden admin wants to do is get accurate numbers from hospitals. This idea was talked about early on and dismissed as fringe right. Today? Good idea. It was a good idea way back when.

After 2 yrs they are admitting that they have been using wrong info, and that info has been driving BAD policy. This was pointed out long ago.


A task force comprised of scientists and data specialists at the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are working with hospitals nationwide to improve Covid-19 reporting. The group is asking hospitals to report numbers of patients who go to the facility because they have Covid-19 and separate those from individuals who go in for other reasons and test positive after being admitted, the two officials said.

The administration’s goal is to get a more accurate sense of Covid-19’s impact across the country and whether the virus is causing severe disease. Senior Biden health officials have increasingly relied on hospitalization numbers, rather than case counts, to determine how to respond to the virus as well as the efficacy of the vaccines. Lower hospitalization rates could inform the administration’s thinking on public health measures such as masking. More accurate Covid-19 numbers also could provide a better picture of the strain on hospitals and which resources they might need during surges.

 
The 180 degree turn over the past month is very interesting. Polling is terrible for the dems. Now they want to change the calculus.

One of the things the Biden admin wants to do is get accurate numbers from hospitals. This idea was talked about early on and dismissed as fringe right. Today? Good idea. It was a good idea way back when.

After 2 yrs they are admitting that they have been using wrong info, and that info has been driving BAD policy. This was pointed out long ago.


A task force comprised of scientists and data specialists at the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are working with hospitals nationwide to improve Covid-19 reporting. The group is asking hospitals to report numbers of patients who go to the facility because they have Covid-19 and separate those from individuals who go in for other reasons and test positive after being admitted, the two officials said.

The administration’s goal is to get a more accurate sense of Covid-19’s impact across the country and whether the virus is causing severe disease. Senior Biden health officials have increasingly relied on hospitalization numbers, rather than case counts, to determine how to respond to the virus as well as the efficacy of the vaccines. Lower hospitalization rates could inform the administration’s thinking on public health measures such as masking. More accurate Covid-19 numbers also could provide a better picture of the strain on hospitals and which resources they might need during surges.

Great reporting on the facts Hound.
 
How much earlier? My thought would be that an unvaccinated person is less likely to test than a vaccinated person and will only test after symptoms become reasonably severe while those who are vaccinated are likely to test as soon as they have mild symptoms. Although, I can't imagine it would push things out much more than a week, if that. I have to wonder if the testing of asymptomatic people is creating some strange results considering you can test positive weeks after you have gotten over the virus.
Vax cases are peaking a week or so before non vax cases. Cases per capita. Not test positivity.

It isn’t a bias in who gets tested. That could make cases lower for the non-testing group, but the effect would be the same every day. The peak would drop, but it wouldn’t move left or right.

I’m wondering if the vax subgroup is developing more immunity than we would expect from case counts. That is, is it common for vaccinated people get enough exposure to trigger an immune response, but not enough to develop a case.
 
Vax cases are peaking a week or so before non vax cases. Cases per capita. Not test positivity.

It isn’t a bias in who gets tested. That could make cases lower for the non-testing group, but the effect would be the same every day. The peak would drop, but it wouldn’t move left or right.

I’m wondering if the vax subgroup is developing more immunity than we would expect from case counts. That is, is it common for vaccinated people get enough exposure to trigger an immune response, but not enough to develop a case.

I wonder if there is a correlation to overall vaccination rates. Where I live, they're peaking right around the same time.
 
Vax cases are peaking a week or so before non vax cases. Cases per capita. Not test positivity.

It isn’t a bias in who gets tested. That could make cases lower for the non-testing group, but the effect would be the same every day. The peak would drop, but it wouldn’t move left or right.

I’m wondering if the vax subgroup is developing more immunity than we would expect from case counts. That is, is it common for vaccinated people get enough exposure to trigger an immune response, but not enough to develop a case.
So how do you adjust for those who took IN Home tests?
 
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