Vaccine

watfly said:
If Dad4 was on the Titanic, "Don't let the kids in our lifeboat, they could panic and tip over the boat".

I find the fear of children just mind boggling.
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... I find it small and cowardly.
 
Grace T. said:
That's hilarious. See Israel.

See also my personal case study: 11 participants in an outdoor BBQ. All had COVID or were fully vaxxed. Wore masks except while eating. The 3 non vaxxed with COVID did not come down with COVID again despite testing and despite taking in patient zero. Patient zero was fully vaxxed and a bit of a COVID paranoid who always wore an N95 and probably came down with it at her job. 4 of the 6 vaxxed people came down with COVID, 1 seriously, 1 asymptomatic, 2 with the sniffles.

Absolutely get your vax. The question, though, is whether we are going to keep vaxxing people with boosters or just have them catch it and go with natural immunity. If the later, you want community spread while vaccine immunity, which seems to decline with time, is high.
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Israel? They aren’t highly vaxxed. Maybe they are by your definiton, but your definition of “highly vaxxed” is not the same as Delta’s definiton of highly vaxxed.

Duke’s county in MA is 88% vaccinated. 88% of total pop. That is enough to keep them near steady state. Not decline. Just almost stable.

Israel is at 60%. Why on earth would 60% be enough for Delta? Delta is known to be growing in dozens of places with a 60% overall vax rate.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
Oh?? Lol!
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Since you appear unlikely to share your little joke, does the following capture what you are trying to say?

1) Official case tallies of the MERS and SARS outbreaks are actually gross underestimates.
2) In reality, both were global pandemics of comparable magnitude to what we have with CoV-2.
3) However, due to a relative dearth of PCR testing and (presumably) other broad-population assessments of infection, the true scale of the MERS and SARS pandemics went undetected.
4) Additionally, fatalities associated with the proposed MERS and SARS pandemics essentially did not produce a signal over the day-to-day noise of people dying of all kinds of things.
5) Therefore, the only reason anybody is making any kind of fuss over CoV-2 is that a push for PCR testing revealed the scale of it, otherwise we'd all have kept skipping down the path on our merry way.
 
dad4 said:
Israel? They aren’t highly vaxxed. Maybe they are by your definiton, but your definition of “highly vaxxed” is not the same as Delta’s definiton of highly vaxxed.

Duke’s county in MA is 88% vaccinated. 88% of total pop. That is enough to keep them near steady state. Not decline. Just almost stable.

Israel is at 60%. Why on earth would 60% be enough for Delta? Delta is known to be growing in dozens of places with a 60% overall vax rate.
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Under your definition no country then is highly vaxxed. Per The Guardian's tracker, Israel is as 153 doses per 100 people, with only Iceland (also having problems) and Uruguay higher.

As for Duke county, the problem again is part of that 88% month to month is going to fall in effectiveness so even if they hit 90% it will continue to fall from there. That's the problem...if you think the number is 90%, and if the vaccine drops in effectiveness over time, there's no way to get there using the Gottlieb/Israeli approach....it's the UK/Denmark/Singapore or bust then.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Since you appear unlikely to share your little joke, does the following capture what you are trying to say?

1) Official case tallies of the MERS and SARS outbreaks are actually gross underestimates.
2) In reality, both were global pandemics of comparable magnitude to what we have with CoV-2.
3) However, due to a relative dearth of PCR testing and (presumably) other broad-population assessments of infection, the true scale of the MERS and SARS pandemics went undetected.
4) Additionally, fatalities associated with the proposed MERS and SARS pandemics essentially did not produce a signal over the day-to-day noise of people dying of all kinds of things.
5) Therefore, the only reason anybody is making any kind of fuss over CoV-2 is that a push for PCR testing revealed the scale of it, otherwise we'd all have kept skipping down the path on our merry way.
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No, that wasn't at all what I was trying to say. Is that what you are trying to say?
 
dad4 said:
Why would I want community spread? We have every reason to believe that a vaccinated population with masks does not grow Delta.

CDC estimates that about 2.7% of the population is immunocompromised in some way. That sounds high, but start counting. Transplant recipients, cancer patients, people with auto immune diseases, and so on... That is a lot of people who are difficult or impossible to vaccinate. You think I’d want to put them at risk just to pander to some anti-vax conspiracy theory? Heck no. Just get your shots.
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Your technocrat bent is showing again.
 
Grace T. said:
Under your definition no country then is highly vaxxed. Per The Guardian's tracker, Israel is as 153 doses per 100 people, with only Iceland (also having problems) and Uruguay higher.

As for Duke county, the problem again is part of that 88% month to month is going to fall in effectiveness so even if they hit 90% it will continue to fall from there. That's the problem...if you think the number is 90%, and if the vaccine drops in effectiveness over time, there's no way to get there using the Gottlieb/Israeli approach....it's the UK/Denmark/Singapore or bust then.
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90%-
Yes. That is the problem. By the definition that matters, very few places are really fully vaccinated.

But it isn‘t my definition to choose. The threshold is whatever it is. Do you have any reason to believe that the herd immunity threshold is anything less than 90% ?


Degradation-
I am not so worried about the gradual degradation in vaccine effectiveness. Other vaccines also need boosters, and it never really bothered me.

Besides, there are two factors pulling in the opposite direction. The fraction of the population that can be vaccinated will rise as we approve youth dosages. More importantly, at some point we will have a booster which targets Delta specifically. Between vaccinating more people and having better targeted shots, I’m not too worried about the long term plan for vaccinations.
 
dad4 said:
Will Hound every stop ignoring whether school transmission leads to added community spread?

Trick question. No he won’t.
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Actually they have found that schools are not a driver of community spread. Lots of articles about that.

So why exactly are we playing safety theater with a group of individuals who have no risk?
 
Desert Hound said:
Actually they have found that schools are not a driver of community spread. Lots of articles about that.

So why exactly are we playing safety theater with a group of individuals who have no risk?
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Are you trying to be the last person to use the empty phrase "safety theater"?
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
No. It would be an absurd argument and demonstrably false. Which then raises the question of what are you trying to say when you bring up SARS and MERS?
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By "It" do you mean the following?:

1) Official case tallies of the MERS and SARS outbreaks are actually gross underestimates.
2) In reality, both were global pandemics of comparable magnitude to what we have with CoV-2.
3) However, due to a relative dearth of PCR testing and (presumably) other broad-population assessments of infection, the true scale of the MERS and SARS pandemics went undetected.
4) Additionally, fatalities associated with the proposed MERS and SARS pandemics essentially did not produce a signal over the day-to-day noise of people dying of all kinds of things.
5) Therefore, the only reason anybody is making any kind of fuss over CoV-2 is that a push for PCR testing revealed the scale of it, otherwise we'd all have kept skipping down the path on our merry way.
 
dad4 said:
90%-
Yes. That is the problem. By the definition that matters, very few places are really fully vaccinated.

But it isn‘t my definition to choose. The threshold is whatever it is. Do you have any reason to believe that the herd immunity threshold is anything less than 90% ?


Degradation-
I am not so worried about the gradual degradation in vaccine effectiveness. Other vaccines also need boosters, and it never really bothered me.

Besides, there are two factors pulling in the opposite direction. The fraction of the population that can be vaccinated will rise as we approve youth dosages. More importantly, at some point we will have a booster which targets Delta specifically. Between vaccinating more people and having better targeted shots, I’m not too worried about the long term plan for vaccinations.
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As for boosters -- remember when we got a flu shot every year, even though it was the "same" flu year after year?

(...except for the annual mix of new variants, and the limited life of the vaccination's power, and other things pretty much in parallel with current covid vaccine issues...)
 
dad4 said:
90%-
Yes. That is the problem. By the definition that matters, very few places are really fully vaccinated.

But it isn‘t my definition to choose. The threshold is whatever it is. Do you have any reason to believe that the herd immunity threshold is anything less than 90% ?


Degradation-
I am not so worried about the gradual degradation in vaccine effectiveness. Other vaccines also need boosters, and it never really bothered me.

Besides, there are two factors pulling in the opposite direction. The fraction of the population that can be vaccinated will rise as we approve youth dosages. More importantly, at some point we will have a booster which targets Delta specifically. Between vaccinating more people and having better targeted shots, I’m not too worried about the long term plan for vaccinations.
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The problem there is you won't get to it. First, it basically requires an admission by the US authorities that they probably goofed by having the shots too close together (which is going to tick people off but it's less than if you hide it and tick people off who later find out about it). Second, you've got to convince all those people to take the booster. Third, those boosters are at least initially not going to target the Delta specifically (so potentially there's a 4th shot on the table). If you aren't there in Israel, you won't get there without some really very high handed tactics like ostracizing the people who won't get tripled vaxxed from civilized society or even dragging them kicking and screaming there. If that's the number, and if there is vaccine degradation, you are left with either very high handed authoritarian tactics or the UK approach (the UK though spaced out their vaccines, which means like Israel it will go worse for us here).
 
Grace T. said:
The problem there is you won't get to it. First, it basically requires an admission by the US authorities that they probably goofed by having the shots too close together (which is going to tick people off but it's less than if you hide it and tick people off who later find out about it). Second, you've got to convince all those people to take the booster. Third, those boosters are at least initially not going to target the Delta specifically (so potentially there's a 4th shot on the table). If you aren't there in Israel, you won't get there without some really very high handed tactics like ostracizing the people who won't get tripled vaxxed from civilized society or even dragging them kicking and screaming there. If that's the number, and if there is vaccine degradation, you are left with either very high handed authoritarian tactics or the UK approach (the UK though spaced out their vaccines, which means like Israel it will go worse for us here).
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I don’t think we will get there with vaccines alone.

25% of adults are choosing to experience Delta without getting the vaccine first. So long as that is true, our national vaccination rate will have a very hard time getting to 90.
 
dad4 said:
I don’t think we will get there with vaccines alone.

25% of adults are choosing to experience Delta without getting the vaccine first. So long as that is true, our national vaccination rate will have a very hard time getting to 90.
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If so, and let's assume arguendo masks work remarkably well (you pick the number of transmission reduction), then why masks? If the vaccine efficiency reduces over time, wouldn't you want those people who are responsible enough to get vaccinated to get COVID now while their vaccine protection is high. Why then, masks, if all they'll do is prolong this?
 
Desert Hound said:
Actually they have found that schools are not a driver of community spread. Lots of articles about that.

So why exactly are we playing safety theater with a group of individuals who have no risk?
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I think those studies are all pre-delta. And they mostly apply only to places with low community case rates. Hard to find such places right about now,

The recent Marin school outbreak was a clear case of non-student cases cased by in-school transmission.
 
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