Vaccine

In the same report were noted other infections in the same school in different classrooms. One case was a cluster of three who had spent a night together at a sleepover (presumably unmasked and at close distance). No other students in that masked classroom were affected. Since the researchers were testing all the students to track the course of the infection, they found 4 other students in separate classrooms who tested positive, but none of their classmates did. That is strong evidence (not an anecdote) that masking students in school situations reduces the risk of transmission.

Another point I forgot to include -- the teacher was unvaccinated. If the school district cannot enforce a vaccination requirement for teachers, can they at least provide informed consent to parents, warning them which teachers are not vaccinated?
 
That analogy isn't remotely comparable.

That teacher thought the same thing you did that it provided significant protection, which is patently false. You're only encouraging the infected to go out in public which is insanity.

Please note that the 79% effectiveness of masks you quote was only for those that wore masks prior to showing symptoms. Symptomatics are a much different equation.
You don’t see the analogy because you keep confusing masks as PPE with masks as source control. They are very different ideas.

Once you can separate those two concepts, the teacher’s mistake will make more sense to you.
 
You're using Hawaii as an example of a highly vaccinated population?

Check your data. Last time we talked HI, they were barely over the US average.

If you can name a place with an enforced, or at least well observed, mask mandate and over 90% adult vax rate, let's look at their numbers. I bet it would be low. We could also look at anywhere with a 70% adult vax rate and significant past cases.

So now it has to be 90% vax rate (which is you count everyone, as you know is near impossible, since 12 and under can't get vaxxed).

As to the 70% adult vax rate...see below...Israel is on the verge of a lockdown despite masks, despite vaccines, and as I said, Canada will be the great experiment.
 
You don’t see the analogy because you keep confusing masks as PPE with masks as source control. They are very different ideas.

Once you can separate those two concepts, the teacher’s mistake will make more sense to you.
Youre confusing me with the media, some county health officials and some politicians that are promoting it as PPE which is oveselling masks which is exactly my point. They never differentiate the two because they dont understand the studies. I fully understand its limitations. I willingly wear a mask on airplanes but understand that its protecton is limited as im elbow to elbow with a stranger (who is not masked when eating or drinking) Quite frankly Im amazed that i havent gotten Delta given all the flights Ive taken. I believe HEPA filters are far more effective than masks, but still limited. I assume the risk.

If I get infected through some kid at school, thats on me. Im not going to play the victim card. Remember im the adult.
 
Youre confusing me with the media, some county health officials and some politicians that are promoting it as PPE which is oveselling masks which is exactly my point. They never differentiate the two because they dont understand the studies. I fully understand its limitations. I willingly wear a mask on airplanes but understand that its protecton is limited as im elbow to elbow with a stranger (who is not masked when eating or drinking) Quite frankly Im amazed that i havent gotten Delta given all the flights Ive taken. I believe HEPA filters are far more effective than masks, but still limited. I assume the risk.

If I get infected through some kid at school, thats on me. Im not going to play the victim card. Remember im the adult.

The stupidest thing is still the restaurants and bars...wearing a mask to get in and out but everyone is sitting there without a mask on eating and drinking. It's security theater at its finest.

Got back from the Dakotas a couple weeks back. We crossed the Sturgis rally for a day in Deadwood. The red and blue states are really diverging greatly in their approaches. Except to enter a national park or an airport, no one is wearing masks there. And in the airports we passed along the way lots of people cheating on their mask usage too. That's not to say people aren't jumpy...I'm suffering from long RSV and had a coughing fit outside of a steakhouse one night...the couple going inside totally scurried around me and gave me a look. Same for this guy coughing in the corner of the same restaurant (gotta admit even I got nervous). Mount Rushmore was interesting...packed and you could totally tell whose a blue stater and red stater there. We took a kayaking adventure and our guide thought we were crazy for basic precautions we were taking: eating outdoors when possible, making sure he was vaxxed, avoiding really packed locations like Wall Drugs and the Mount Rushmore gift shop. Here's a glimpse of Iowa from my son's favorite youtubers.


Saddest thing is we were in Deadwood the day Kabul fell. Guy at the desk was a veteran who had lost an arm there. It's 11 am and I got to the front desk and the guy totally jumps down my throat saying I'm way too early to check in. I explained I just needed the chain lowered so we could park the car since parking was full with the rally. He apologized and broke down into tears saying it was a really hard day for him.
 
If this trend holds the Gottlieb/booster approach will be a bust....it means our only choice would be the UK approach

Further to this Israel is announcing that vaccine passports will be good only for 6 months (regardless of whether you catch covid in interim) from the last shot. If you go down the vaccine passport route the 2 approaches (uK/Gottlieb) become irreconcilable…you have to pick one. The us will likely offer a third option which is a red hot mess of conflicting policies since, given the recent Supreme Court ruling on rental eviction, it’s unlikely the cdc has the power to enforce a perpetual passport system and Congress is too divided to act…newsom recall may clarify things is he loses otherwise accelerates this division.
 
So now it has to be 90% vax rate (which is you count everyone, as you know is near impossible, since 12 and under can't get vaxxed).

As to the 70% adult vax rate...see below...Israel is on the verge of a lockdown despite masks, despite vaccines, and as I said, Canada will be the great experiment.
If you don't like the 90% vax for 12+, take it up with Delta.

Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else get a vote in this. The 90% vax rate is just an estimate for what is necessary to drive R below 1.

You might as well complain about gravity. It will do you as much good.
 
Youre confusing me with the media, some county health officials and some politicians that are promoting it as PPE which is oveselling masks which is exactly my point. They never differentiate the two because they dont understand the studies. I fully understand its limitations. I willingly wear a mask on airplanes but understand that its protecton is limited as im elbow to elbow with a stranger (who is not masked when eating or drinking) Quite frankly Im amazed that i havent gotten Delta given all the flights Ive taken. I believe HEPA filters are far more effective than masks, but still limited. I assume the risk.

If I get infected through some kid at school, thats on me. Im not going to play the victim card. Remember im the adult.
If you understand the difference between source control and PPE, why did you ask about the masks on kids in the Marin case?

Masks on the recipients would not be expected to be any help at all for source control. They are only relevant if you think of masks as PPE.
 
If you don't like the 90% vax for 12+, take it up with Delta.

Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else get a vote in this. The 90% vax rate is just an estimate for what is necessary to drive R below 1.

You might as well complain about gravity. It will do you as much good.

Well you now qualified the number with 12 and up which is at least a theoretical possibility. But without a semi hard mandate (govt mandating it for any form of public life, whether working, going to school, going shopping), it's not going to get to 90% in most places in the US. And if the Israel/Gottlieb approach is correct, that also means rolling 90% every 6-8 months for the next several years...I just don't see that happening (not without triggering a civil war where the red states tell the CDC to stuff it). You've just essentially laid out the case that we shouldn't even try the Israel/Gottlieb approach because it's doomed to failure and it's UK/Denmark or bust.
 
I take it you're done complaining about the lack of message clarity, and have returned to your main job of obfuscating the message.

The message is not simply "stay home if you are sick". The school districts already put out that message. They even give us checklists and have us mark the checklist every morning: "Time for school. Come on, kids. Get zapped."

Guess what? Some fraction of symptomatic people go to school anyway. They think it is a cold, or allergies. Or they never noticed the fever, because they forgot to take their temperature. And there they are in a room with 18 to 30 other people. Maybe they shouldn't be there, but they are.

And, if you have your way, they are also unvaccinated and unmasked.
Such fragility in your post.
 
Well you now qualified the number with 12 and up which is at least a theoretical possibility. But without a semi hard mandate (govt mandating it for any form of public life, whether working, going to school, going shopping), it's not going to get to 90% in most places in the US. And if the Israel/Gottlieb approach is correct, that also means rolling 90% every 6-8 months for the next several years...I just don't see that happening (not without triggering a civil war where the red states tell the CDC to stuff it). You've just essentially laid out the case that we shouldn't even try the Israel/Gottlieb approach because it's doomed to failure and it's UK/Denmark or bust.
Denmark just hit an 80% adult vax rate. They actually treated the disease with respect.

The red state folks want it all to be over, but aren’t willing to do anything to make that happen.
 
Sherelle Jacobs identifies an ominous parallel between the ‘war on terror’ and the ‘war on Covid.’ Here’s her conclusion:

The failure of the war [in Afghanistan] was not just logistical but also intellectual. The neo-conservatism that inspired Bush and Blair was based on decent but vague Enlightenment ideals about human rights and democracy. Though the academic school had spent years advocating America’s unique role in advancing these ideals across the world prior to 9/11, it had made few attempts to interrogate the specific conditions in which they flourish.Perhaps that is because the neo-con movement was as visceral as it was intellectual – its faith in America’s heroic purpose was partly a revolt against modern liberal society with its vapid nihilism and refusal to take sides. While there was nothing wrong with that impulse, the camp struggled to move beyond a self-confidence that bordered on spiritual. It remains in denial about how catastrophically its lofty theories collided with gritty reality in Afghanistan.

And so it goes that the West shifts from one war to another – or, rather, one simulation to another. The war on terror may be drawing to a close but there is no end in sight to the war on coronavirus. There are differences: this new unfolding epic has a sci-fi flavour and a fresh heroic quest – absolute Safety has relegated absolute Freedom from cause to victim. Still, much is familiar – the Manichean rhetoric, peddled by world leaders and amplified by broadcast media. The open-ended war on a global phenomenon which risks doing more harm than good. An ever-mutating threat that must be not merely minimised, but eliminated.

One can only hope that we are not here again in 20 years once the Covid era has passed, too afraid to ask ourselves what it was all for.
 
Here’s wisdom shared on Facebook by Phil Magness:

Good reasons to oppose vaccine passports:
– They invite massive government overreach
– They’re likely to be bureaucratic nightmares with TSA levels of effectiveness and incompetence
– They create a medical privacy risk
– Their burdens are inequitable and fall most heavily on poor people and minorities
– They promote and incentivize disease ostracism, which has a long history of atrocities.
– They contain no exceptions for the millions of people who have proven antibody immunity from covid recovery.
Bad reasons to oppose vaccine passports:
– You read somewhere on the internet that vaccines don’t work and/or have high risks of harmful side effects, and therefore don’t want to take the vaccine.
 
Denmark just hit an 80% adult vax rate. They actually treated the disease with respect.

The red state folks want it all to be over, but aren’t willing to do anything to make that happen.

"want it to be over"....you've presented a false choice....you could go full UK approach. Eventually enough people catch it and acquire natural immunity.. Yeah, the death toll will be higher. But every adult that wants one has now been offered a vaccine. The rest of us can only protect people from stupidity for so long. But unless you can figure out a way to get that vaxxed rate up, and not just that but keep it up every 6-8 months, you are basically saying the UK approach is our only option. That's more radical than where I am right now, but you've pushed me a little closer to it.

Oh, here BTW, is a sad story about a mom that was skeptical of the vaccine. Followed the advice, though, about masks and thought it would protect her. Apparently followed the advice too that it's o.k. to not wear a mask if you are eating indoors.

Particularly if you haven't had the Rona, get vaccinated.

 
If you don't like the 90% vax for 12+, take it up with Delta.

Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else get a vote in this. The 90% vax rate is just an estimate for what is necessary to drive R below 1.

You might as well complain about gravity. It will do you as much good.
Politicians have turned Covid-19 into a moral crusade, quasi-religious in nature, creating a doomsday cult. Masks generate fear and help keep the cultish behaviour going. Lockdowns demoralise us, reducing our capacity to resist dangerous authoritarian rule. Defeating the virus is the impossible aim that keeps the cult leaders in business.
 
You don’t see the analogy because you keep confusing masks as PPE with masks as source control. They are very different ideas.

Once you can separate those two concepts, the teacher’s mistake will make more sense to you.
It’s striking how much the CDC, in marshalling evidence to justify its revised mask guidance, studiously avoids mentioning randomized controlled trials. RCTs are uniformly regarded as the gold standard in medical research, yet the CDC basically ignores them apart from disparaging certain ones that particularly contradict the agency’s position. In a “Science Brief” highlighting studies that “demonstrate that mask wearing reduces new infections” and serving as the main public justification for its mask guidance, the CDC provides a helpful matrix of 15 studies—none RCTs. The CDC instead focuses strictly on observational studies completed after Covid-19 began. In general, observational studies are not only of lower quality than RCTs but also are more likely to be politicized, as they can inject the researcher’s judgment more prominently into the inquiry and lend themselves, far more than RCTs, to finding what one wants to find.
 
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